Recent Estimates and Predictions of 5-Year Survival in Patients with Gastric Cancer: A Model-Based Period Analysis

Abstract

Background: The overall incidence and mortality of gastric cancer have steadily declined in the United States over the past few decades, but it is still a serious disease burden for patients. Therefore, it is of great significance to evaluate the latest survival rate of gastric cancer. Methods: Based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database, this study analyzed the age-standardized relative survival rates and survival trends of gastric cancer cases in 2007–2011 and 2012–2016 using period analysis, and the survival rate 2017–2021 was predicted using a generalized linear model based on the period analysis. Results: During 2007–2016, the 5-year relative survival rate of patients with gastric cancer continued to rise, and the same trend was observed in 2017–2021. The 5-year overall age-standardized relative survival rates in 2007–2011, 2012–2016, and 2017–2021 were 38.3%, 40.6%, and 42.9%, respectively. However, despite these favorable trends, the overall relative survival of patients with gastric cancer remains at a low level. There were significant differences in the relative survival rates of patients with gastric cancer in terms of age, sex, race, primary site, stage, and socioeconomic status. Notably, the survival rate of patients with distant-stage gastric cancer remains very low (10%). Conclusion: We found that the survival rate of patients with gastric cancer showed different degrees of improvement in each subgroup. However, the overall relative survival rate of patients with gastric cancer remains low. Analyzing the changes of patients with gastric cancer in the last 10 years will be helpful in predicting the changing trend of cancer in the future. It also provides a scientific basis for relevant departments to formulate effective tumor prevention and control measures.

Analysis and Prediction of the Survival Trends of Patients with Clear-Cell Renal Cell Carcinoma: A Model-Based Period Analysis, 2001-2015

“…When calculating the relative survival rate at 5 years, k is 5. Among them, the expected survival rate was derived from nationwide population life tables for the year 2000 stratified by age, sex and calendar time, 19 , 24 using the Ederer II method. 19 , 24 The point estimation of RSR and its standard error were calculated by Greenwood’s method.…”

“…Among them, the expected survival rate was derived from nationwide population life tables for the year 2000 stratified by age, sex and calendar time, 19 , 24 using the Ederer II method. 19 , 24 The point estimation of RSR and its standard error were calculated by Greenwood’s method. 17 , 24 In this study, the overall survival rate was estimated by constructing Kaplan-Meier curves.…”

“… 16 , 18 It can also use existing data to predict the future survival rates. 18 This method has been widely used, 19 , 20 but has not been reported for ccRCC.…”

Immune-Related LncRNAs to Construct a Prognosis Risk-Assessment Model for Gastric Cancer

“…Although the incidence and mortality of gastric cancer have considerably declined in the past few decades, its overall survival rate remains low. The 5-year age-standard survival rate of gastric cancer patients in the United States is 42.9% [ 2 ], while that of China is merely 27.4% [ 3 ]. Surgery is currently the gold standard for gastric cancer treatment, supplemented by neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy or adjuvant chemoradiotherapy.…”

HER2 Inhibition in Gastric Cancer—Novel Therapeutic Approaches for an Established Target

“…Gastric adenocarcinoma is an aggressive cancer associated with poor prognosis. On a global scale, only 5–10% of patients who present with metastatic disease survive beyond five years of initial diagnosis [ 5 ]. Approximately 20% of gastric cancers are HER2-positive and are more common in tumours with intestinal pathology and junctional origin [ 6 ].…”