Recent global decline of CO
            <sub>2</sub>
            fertilization effects on vegetation photosynthesis

Wang, Songhan; Zhang, Yongguang; Ju, Weimin; Chen, Jing M.; Ciais, Philippe; Cescatti, Alessandro; Sardans, Jordi; Janssens, Ivan A.; Wu, Mousong; Berry, Joseph A.; Campbell, Elliott; Fernández‐Martínez, Marcos; Alkama, Ramdane; Sitch, Stephen; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Smith, William K.; Yuan, Wenping; He, Wei; Lombardozzi, Danica; Kautz, Markus; Zhu, Dan; Lienert, Sebastian; Kato, Etsushi; Poulter, Benjamin; Sanders, Tanja G. M.; Krüger, Inken; Wang, Rong; Zeng, Ning; Tian, Hanqin; Vuichard, Nicolas; Jain, Atul K.; Wiltshire, Andy; Haverd, Vanessa; Goll, Daniel S.; Peñuelas, Josep

doi:10.1126/science.abb7772

Cited by 453 publications

(279 citation statements)

References 132 publications

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“…Phosphorus limitation on terrestrial plant production is traditionally viewed as important, but mainly in lowland tropical regions where soils are generally strongly weathered (Reich & Oleksyn, 2004; Vitousek, 1984; Walker & Syers, 1976). While increasing global syntheses suggest a more wide distribution of terrestrial P limitation on land than previously thought (Augusto et al, 2017; Du et al, 2020; Elser et al, 2007; Hou et al, 2020), the global pattern and magnitude of terrestrial P limitation remain inadequately understood (Fleischer et al, 2019; Turner et al, 2018; Wang et al, 2020). An improved understanding of terrestrial P limitation at the global scale is required for accurately projecting P limitation on future carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems (Du et al, 2020; Fleischer et al, 2019; Hou et al, 2020; Reed et al, 2015; Wieder et al, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Latitudinal patterns of terrestrial phosphorus limitation over the globe

et al. 2021

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Phosphorus limitation on terrestrial plant growth is being incorporated into Earth system models. The global pattern of terrestrial phosphorus limitation, however, remains unstudied. Here, we examined the global‐scale latitudinal pattern of terrestrial phosphorus limitation by analysing a total of 1068 observations of aboveground plant production response to phosphorus additions at 351 forest, grassland or tundra sites that are distributed globally. The observed phosphorus‐addition effect varied greatly (either positive or negative), depending significantly upon fertilisation regime and production measure, but did not change significantly with latitude. In contrast, phosphorus‐addition effect standardised by fertilisation regime and production measure was consistently positive and decreased significantly with latitude. Latitudinal gradient in the standardised phosphorus‐addition effect was explained by several mechanisms involving substrate age, climate, vegetation type, edaphic properties and biochemical machinery. This study suggests that latitudinal pattern of terrestrial phosphorus limitation is jointly shaped by macro‐scale driving forces and the fundamental structure of life.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Latitudinal patterns of terrestrial phosphorus limitation over the globe

et al. 2021

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“…However, although CESM1-BGC (like all the other CMIP5 models) can simulate changes in temperature reasonably well, it may not predict precipitation well, particularly for eastern China which is affected by large-scale atmospheric circulations (Huang et al, 2013). In addition, the effects of solar radiation (Yu et al, 2021; and its complex responses to dust aerosol (Fu et al, 2009;Qi et al, 2013;Wang et al, 2013) on plant photosynthesis and biomass formation were not considered in this study, which can be another source of uncertainties in the estimated AGB under future climate change. Last but not least, the assumption of space-for-time substitution has been widely debated and challenged (Johnson and Miyanishi, 2008;Walker et al, 2010).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulating the spatiotemporal variations in aboveground biomass in Inner Mongolian grasslands under environmental changes

et al. 2021

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Abstract. Grassland aboveground biomass (AGB) is a critical component of the global carbon cycle and reflects ecosystem productivity. Although it is widely acknowledged that dynamics of grassland biomass is significantly regulated by climate change, in situ evidence at meaningfully large spatiotemporal scales is limited. Here, we combine biomass measurements from six long-term (> 30 years) experiments and data in existing literatures to explore the spatiotemporal changes in AGB in Inner Mongolian temperate grasslands. We show that, on average, annual AGB over the past 4 decades is 2561, 1496 and 835 kg ha−1, respectively, in meadow steppe, typical steppe and desert steppe in Inner Mongolia. The spatiotemporal changes of AGB are regulated by interactions of climatic attributes, edaphic properties, grassland type and livestock. Using a machine-learning-based approach, we map annual AGB (from 1981 to 2100) across the Inner Mongolian grasslands at the spatial resolution of 1 km. We find that on the regional scale, meadow steppe has the highest annual AGB, followed by typical and desert steppe. Future climate change characterized mainly by warming could lead to a general decrease in grassland AGB. Under climate change, on average, compared with the historical AGB (i.e. average of 1981–2019), the AGB at the end of this century (i.e. average of 2080–2100) would decrease by 14 % under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 28 % under RCP8.5. If the carbon dioxide (CO2) enrichment effect on AGB is considered, however, the estimated decreases in future AGB can be reversed due to the growing atmospheric CO2 concentrations under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The projected changes in AGB show large spatial and temporal disparities across different grassland types and RCP scenarios. Our study demonstrates the accuracy of predictions in AGB using a modelling approach driven by several readily obtainable environmental variables and provides new data at a large scale and fine resolution extrapolated from field measurements.

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“…The sensitivity of GPP to CO 2 remains poorly quantified, especially in the tropics, due to the lack of in-situ data and large observational uncertainties (Sun et al, 2019). As a result, process-model-enhanced GPP may be overestimated, due to missing nutrient limitation (He et al, 2017), acclimation processes (Ainsworth & Rogers, 2007) or errors in the coupling of the water and C cycles (Wang et al, 2020). Our analyses estimate increases in both LAI and GPP for much of Brazil, but declines in water-limited regions (e.g.…”

Section: Does Increasing Model Complexity Improve Agreement With Evaluation Information?mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This is likely a result of CO 2 fertilisation leading to reductions in plant water demand that are explicit in both ACM GPP models. However, it is possible that land surface models like DALEC are overestimating CO 2 fertilisation effect (Wang et al, 2020) highlighting the need for further evaluation and refinement.…”

Section: Which Ecosystem Traits Are Most Strongly Correlated With Simulated Carbon Dynamics?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Parameter uncertainty dominates C cycle forecast errors over most of Brazil for the 21st Century

Smallman¹,

Milodowski²,

Sousa‐Neto³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Abstract. Identification of terrestrial carbon (C) sources and sinks is critical for understanding the earth system and to mitigate and adapt to climate change results from greenhouse gas emissions. Predicting whether a given location will act as a C source or sink using terrestrial ecosystem models (TEMs) is challenging due to net flux being the difference between far larger, spatially and temporally variable fluxes with large uncertainties. Uncertainty in projections of future dynamics, critical for policy evaluation, has been determined using multi-TEM intercomparisons, for various emissions scenarios. This approach quantifies structural and forcing errors. However, the role of parameter error within models has not been determined. TEMs typically have defined parameters for specific plant functional types generated from the literature. To ascertain the importance of parameter error in forecasts we present a Bayesian analysis that uses data on historical and current C cycling for Brazil to parameterise five TEMs of varied complexity with a retrieval of model error covariance at 1 degree spatial resolution. After evaluation against data from 2001–2017, the parameterised models are simulated to 2100 under four climate change scenarios spanning the likely range of climate projections. Using multiple models, each with per pixel parameter ensembles, we partition forecast uncertainties. Parameter uncertainty dominates across most of Brazil when simulating future stock changes in biomass C and dead organic matter (DOM). Uncertainty of simulated biomass change is most strongly correlated with net primary productivity allocation to wood (NPPwood) and wood mean residence times (MRTwood). Uncertainty of simulated DOM change is most strongly correlated with MRTsoil and NPPwood. Due to the coupling between these variables and C stock dynamics being bi-directional we argue that using repeat estimates of woody biomass will provide a valuable constraint needed to refine predictions of the future carbon cycle. Finally, evaluation of our multi-model analysis shows that wood litter contributes substantially to fire emissions necessitating a greater understanding of wood litter C-cycling than is typically considered in large-scale TEMs.

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Recent global decline of CO ₂ fertilization effects on vegetation photosynthesis

Cited by 453 publications

References 132 publications

Latitudinal patterns of terrestrial phosphorus limitation over the globe

Latitudinal patterns of terrestrial phosphorus limitation over the globe

Simulating the spatiotemporal variations in aboveground biomass in Inner Mongolian grasslands under environmental changes

Parameter uncertainty dominates C cycle forecast errors over most of Brazil for the 21st Century

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Recent global decline of CO 2 fertilization effects on vegetation photosynthesis

Cited by 453 publications

References 132 publications

Latitudinal patterns of terrestrial phosphorus limitation over the globe

Latitudinal patterns of terrestrial phosphorus limitation over the globe

Simulating the spatiotemporal variations in aboveground biomass in Inner Mongolian grasslands under environmental changes

Parameter uncertainty dominates C cycle forecast errors over most of Brazil for the 21st Century

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Recent global decline of CO ₂ fertilization effects on vegetation photosynthesis