Recent increase in pertussis incidence in Korea: an age-period-cohort analysis

Kim, Chanhee; Yi, Seonju; Cho, Sung-Il

doi:10.4178/epih.e2021053

Cited by 10 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…However, after 2014, there was a huge increase up to a rate of 2.15 per 100,000 in 2019, providing an important reminder that pertussis remains a threat in China. Similar to countries such as Canada, the United States, and Australia [ 36 ], the recurrence of pertussis has become an increasing problem in China. Previous studies indicated that the appearance of erythromycin-resistant B. pertussis and the evolution of B. pertussis might be the responsible for the increasing incidence in China [ 35 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

ARIMA and ARIMA-ERNN models for prediction of pertussis incidence in mainland China from 2004 to 2021

Wang

Pan²,

Li³

et al. 2022

BMC Public Health

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Objective To compare an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model with a model that combines ARIMA with the Elman recurrent neural network (ARIMA-ERNN) in predicting the incidence of pertussis in mainland China. Background The incidence of pertussis has increased rapidly in mainland China since 2016, making the disease an increasing public health threat. There is a pressing need for models capable of accurately predicting the incidence of pertussis in order to guide prevention and control measures. We developed and compared two models for predicting pertussis incidence in mainland China. Methods Data on the incidence of pertussis in mainland China from 2004 to 2019 were obtained from the official website of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. An ARIMA model was established using SAS (ver. 9.4) software and an ARIMA-ERNN model was established using MATLAB (ver. R2019a) software. The performances of these models were compared. Results From 2004 to 2019, there were 104,837 reported cases of pertussis in mainland China, with an increasing incidence over time. The incidence of pertussis showed obvious seasonal characteristics, with the peak lasting from March to September every year. Compared with the mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the ARIMA model, those of the ARIMA-ERNN model were 81.43%, 95.97% and 80.86% lower, respectively, in fitting performance. In terms of prediction performance, the MAE, MSE and MAPE were 37.75%, 56.88% and 43.75% lower, respectively. Conclusion The fitting and prediction performances of the ARIMA-ERNN model were better than those of the ARIMA model. This provides theoretical support for the prediction of infectious diseases and should be beneficial to public health decision making.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

ARIMA and ARIMA-ERNN models for prediction of pertussis incidence in mainland China from 2004 to 2021

Wang

Pan²,

Li³

et al. 2022

BMC Public Health

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“…Current vaccines, both the traditional vaccine based on a suspension of the heat-killed and detoxified disease causative agent B. pertussis and the acellular vaccines made up of purified B. pertussis protein immunogens adjuvanted with Alum, have undoubtedly proved to be pivotal for the reduction in the morbidity and mortality associated with the disease. This reduction in the number of cases had been sustained for years; however, a few decades ago, the disease resurged, even in countries with high vaccination coverage [ 28 , 125 , 126 , 127 , 128 ]. The ability of pertussis vaccines to prevent transmission and provide long-term herd protection remains a major point of contention [ 129 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The switch towards the use of aP component in many countries contributed to an increase in the acceptance of pertussis vaccinations within the population, leading to an increase in vaccination coverage [ 9 , 21 , 25 ]. However, a progressive rise in the number of cases has been observed for more than twenty years in Europe, as well as in other regions of the world [ 26 , 27 , 28 , 29 , 30 , 31 , 32 ]. In addition, increased incidence of pertussis has been reported in older children, adolescents, and adults [ 33 , 34 , 35 , 36 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although the surveillance of the disease in adults is deficient in most countries, the increased incidence of pertussis in this age group has been observed mainly in regions where aP vaccines are administered in early childhood [ 37 ]. Accordingly, published reports stated that the immunity induced by aP vaccines wane more rapidly than those induced by wP vaccines [ 27 , 28 , 38 ]. DTaP vaccination induces an adequate, but not durable, immune response [ 39 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Evaluation of Whole-Cell and Acellular Pertussis Vaccines in the Context of Long-Term Herd Immunity

et al. 2022

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After the pertussis vaccine had been introduced in the 1940s and was shown to be very successful in reducing the morbidity and mortality associated with the disease, the possibility of improving both vaccine composition and vaccination schedules has become the subject of continuous interest. As a result, we are witnessing a considerable heterogeneity in pertussis vaccination policies, which remains beyond universal consensus. Many pertussis-related deaths still occur in low- and middle-income countries; however, these deaths are attributable to gaps in vaccination coverage and limited access to healthcare in these countries, rather than to the poor efficacy of the first generation of pertussis vaccine consisting in inactivated and detoxified whole cell pathogen (wP). In many, particularly high-income countries, a switch was made in the 1990s to the use of acellular pertussis (aP) vaccine, to reduce the rate of post-vaccination adverse events and thereby achieve a higher percentage of children vaccinated. However the epidemiological data collected over the past few decades, even in those high-income countries, show an increase in pertussis prevalence and morbidity rates, triggering a wide-ranging debate on the causes of pertussis resurgence and the effectiveness of current pertussis prevention strategies, as well as on the efficacy of available pertussis vaccines and immunization schedules. The current article presents a systematic review of scientific reports on the evaluation of the use of whole-cell and acellular pertussis vaccines, in the context of long-term immunity and vaccines efficacy.

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“…In South Korea, the disease burden of pertussis is still high, with an annual incidence rate that peaked at 24.7 per 100,000 infants per 2018 data [15]. The highest pertussis detection rates are reported in infants (\ 6 months of age) and young children, followed by adolescents and adults [15,16]. During 2010-2011, 33.8% of patients with pertussis were \ 3 months old, and 29% were adolescents and adults C 15 years old [17].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Post-Marketing Surveillance of Tetravalent Diphtheria-Tetanus-Acellular Pertussis and Inactivated Poliovirus (DTaP-IPV) Vaccine in South Korea, 2009 to 2015

2022

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Introduction: TETRAXIM TM (Sanofi), a combined diphtheria, tetanus, acellular pertussis, and inactivated poliovirus (DTaP-IPV) vaccine, has been licensed in South Korea since 2009. In accordance with the Ministry of Food and Drug Safety regulations, this post-marketing surveillance (PMS) study evaluated the safety of the DTaP-IPV vaccine in real-world clinical practice in infants and children who received it as either a part of the three-dose primary series dose at 2, 4, and 6 months or school entry booster between 4 and 6 years of age. Methods: This multicenter, observational, PMS study was conducted in real-world practice in South Korea for 6 years (2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015) in participants aged between 2 months and 6 years. The study outcomes included solicited reactions, unsolicited adverse events (AEs)/adverse drug reactions (ADRs), unexpected AEs/ADRs, and serious AEs (SAEs)/ADRs. Results: Data from 647 participants was included in the safety analysis. Overall, 268 AEs were reported by 181 (28%) participants: 47 (17.5%) solicited reactions, 220 (82.1%) unsolicited AEs, and 1 (0.4%) unsolicited ADR. A total of 48 AEs (including 47 solicited reactions) were reported to have a causal relationship with the DTaP-IPV vaccine and were reported by 36 (5.6%) participants. A total of 212 unexpected AEs were reported by 152 (23.5%) participants, none of which had a causal relationship with the DTaP-IPV vaccine. Neither immediate AEs nor SAEs were reported during the study. Among the participants who reported AEs, 220 (34%) were on concomitant medications. Most AEs were of mild intensity, and all participants recovered. Conclusion: No safety concerns related to the DTaP-IPV vaccine in a real-world setting were raised in participants aged 2-6 months for the primary series and 4-6 years for the school-entry booster dose in the Korean population. The DTaP-IPV vaccine was well tolerated and can be continued as part of routine immunization programs in infants and children.Trial Registration: NCT01437423.

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Recent increase in pertussis incidence in Korea: an age-period-cohort analysis

Cited by 10 publications

References 36 publications

ARIMA and ARIMA-ERNN models for prediction of pertussis incidence in mainland China from 2004 to 2021

ARIMA and ARIMA-ERNN models for prediction of pertussis incidence in mainland China from 2004 to 2021

Evaluation of Whole-Cell and Acellular Pertussis Vaccines in the Context of Long-Term Herd Immunity

Post-Marketing Surveillance of Tetravalent Diphtheria-Tetanus-Acellular Pertussis and Inactivated Poliovirus (DTaP-IPV) Vaccine in South Korea, 2009 to 2015

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