Recent mean temperature trends in Pakistan and links with teleconnection patterns

Río, Sara del; Iqbal, Muhammad; Cano-Ortíz, Ana; Herrero, Luis; Hassan, Ali; Penas, Ángel

doi:10.1002/joc.3423

Cited by 76 publications

(39 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…Consistent with the findings of Sheikh et al (2009) and Río et al (2013), warming dominates in the spring months, where it is fieldsignificant in March over almost all identified subregions of the UIB. Under the drying spring scenario, less cloudy conditions associated with increasing number of dry days for the westerly precipitation regime Hasson, 2016a) together with the snow-albedo feedback can partly explain spring warming.…”

Section: Warming Trendssupporting

confidence: 90%

“…Long-term warming during November-May is generally found to be consistent with earlier reports of warming Archer, 2005, 2006;Sheikh et al, 2009;Khattak et al, 2011;Río et al, 2013) as well as with decreasing snow cover in spring over the Northern Hemisphere and worldwide (IPCC, 2013) and in winter (2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012) over the study region (Hasson et al, 2014b). Consistent with the findings of Sheikh et al (2009) and Río et al (2013), warming dominates in the spring months, where it is fieldsignificant in March over almost all identified subregions of the UIB.…”

Section: Warming Trendssupporting

confidence: 89%

“…They found a mostly insignificant precipitation increase over the ChitralHindukush and northwest Karakoram but a decrease over the Greater Himalayas. Analyzing temperature record for recent six decades , Río et al (2013) also reported dominant warming during March and pre-monsoon season.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 93%

“…Although such parametric tests robustly assess the trend relative to nonparametric tests (Zhai et al, 2005), they need the sample data to be normally distributed, which is not always the case for hydro-meteorological observations (Hess et al, 2001). Hence, a widely adopted non-parametric test such as the Mann-Kendall test (MK -Mann, 1945;Kendall, 1975) is a more pragmatic choice, as employed by Khattak et al (2011), Río et al (2013) and Bocchiola and Diolaiuti (2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For instance, the variance of MK statistic S increases (decreases) with the magnitude of significant positive (negative) autocorrelation of a time series, which leads to an overestimation (underestimation) of the trend detection probability (Douglas et al, 2000;Wu et al, 2008;Rivard and Vigneault, 2009). To eliminate such affect, Von and Kulkarni and von Storch (1995) proposed a pre-whitening procedure that removes the lag-1 autocorrelation prior to applying the MK test, as employed by Río et al (2013) amid the above-cited studies. However, such a procedure is particularly inefficient when a time series either features a trend or is serially dependent negatively (Rivard and Vigneault, 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Prevailing climatic trends and runoff response from Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalaya, upper Indus Basin

Böhner²,

2017

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Abstract. Largely depending on the meltwater from the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya, withdrawals from the upper Indus Basin (UIB) contribute half of the surface water availability in Pakistan, indispensable for agricultural production systems, industrial and domestic use, and hydropower generation. Despite such importance, a comprehensive assessment of prevailing state of relevant climatic variables determining the water availability is largely missing. Against this background, this study assesses the trends in maximum, minimum and mean temperatures, diurnal temperature range and precipitation from 18 stations (1250-4500 m a.s.l.) for their overlapping period of record (1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012) and, separately, from six stations of their long-term record . For this, a Mann-Kendall test on serially independent time series is applied to detect the existence of a trend, while its true slope is estimated using the Sen's slope method. Further, locally identified climatic trends are statistically assessed for their spatial-scale significance within 10 identified subregions of the UIB, and the spatially (field-) significant climatic trends are then qualitatively compared with the trends in discharge out of corresponding subregions. Over the recent period (1995-2012), we find warming and drying of spring (field-significant in March) and increasing early melt season discharge from most of the subregions, likely due to a rapid snowmelt. In stark contrast, most of the subregions feature a field-significant cooling within the monsoon period (particularly in July and September), which coincides well with the main glacier melt season. Hence, a decreasing or weakly increasing discharge is observed from the corresponding subregions during mid-to late melt season (particularly in July). Such tendencies, being largely consistent with the long-term trends , most likely indicate dominance of the nival but suppression of the glacial melt regime, altering overall hydrology of the UIB in future. These findings, though constrained by sparse and short observations, largely contribute in understanding the UIB melt runoff dynamics and address the hydroclimatic explanation of the "Karakoram Anomaly".

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Section: Warming Trendssupporting

confidence: 90%

Section: Warming Trendssupporting

confidence: 89%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Prevailing climatic trends and runoff response from Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalaya, upper Indus Basin

Böhner²,

2017

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Trends in observed extreme climate indices in Saudi Arabia during 1979–2008

Athar

2013

Intl Journal of Climatology

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ABSTRACT:Results of a detailed computation of trends in the annual and the seasonal extreme climate indices using the observed daily temperature and precipitation datasets from a total of 19 stations from Saudi Arabia (SA) for the 30-year period are presented. The temperature based indices have higher value of statistically significant decadal trends and are spatially more widespread as compared to the precipitation based indices. The increase in the frequency of the extreme warm temperatures is larger than the increase in the frequency of the extreme cold temperatures, both on the annual and the seasonal basis. The daily temperature based extremes display more warming in the summer season. The (southwest) coastal stations have displayed more warming as compared to the inland stations. The regional daily temperature range shows a statistically significant increase of 0.21• C decade −1 for SA, during the 30-year period.Warming of extreme maximum temperatures follow the general trend of already noticed warming in SA.KEY WORDS Saudi Arabia; observed daily temperature and precipitation datasets; ETCCDI extreme climate indices; Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope

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Assessment of changes in atmospheric dynamics and dust activity over southwest Asia using the Caspian Sea–Hindu Kush Index

Kaskaoutis

Rashki

Houssos

et al. 2017

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This study examines the influence of the Caspian Sea–Hindu Kush Index (CasHKI) on local and synoptic meteorology as well as on dust emissions over southwest (SW) Asia by means of National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP‐NCAR) re‐analysed mean sea‐level pressure (MSLP), geopotential height at 700 hPa and surface meridional wind, along with meteorological data at Zabol, east Iran and Meteosat/Infrared Difference Dust Index (IDDI) retrievals. The analysis focuses on the summer period (June to September) of 2000–2014 and the winter period (November to March) of 1963–2014. The CasHKI values are mostly controlled by the MSLP anomalies over the Caspian Sea (CS) domain, varying from approximately −25 to +35 hPa in winter and from approximately−10 to +14 hPa in summer, but without a clear annual pattern. The CasHKI values are classified into four modes for each month depending on their intensity. In the summer months, the high CasHKI mode is associated with enhanced MSLP over central Asia and deepening of the Indo‐Pakistan thermal low associated with the Indian summer monsoon. At 700‐hPa level, the high CasHKI mode shows an enhancement of the Arabian ridge, expanding it to the north over Iran and the CS, with a concurrent strengthening of the Indian trough, leading to intensification of northerly winds along east Iran. This results in significant increase in dust activity over SW Asia, which is also apparent in the winter months. Furthermore, the intensification of the northerly flow associated with the high CasHKI modes drops the temperature and increases the relative humidity over Zabol, especially during winter. The SPRINTARS‐model simulations also show increased dust emissions and concentrations for the high CasHKI values, confirming that the CasHKI variations modulate the dust activity over SW Asia throughout the year.

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Recent mean temperature trends in Pakistan and links with teleconnection patterns

Cited by 76 publications

References 62 publications

Prevailing climatic trends and runoff response from Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalaya, upper Indus Basin

Prevailing climatic trends and runoff response from Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalaya, upper Indus Basin

Trends in observed extreme climate indices in Saudi Arabia during 1979–2008

Assessment of changes in atmospheric dynamics and dust activity over southwest Asia using the Caspian Sea–Hindu Kush Index

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