Recent nationwide climate change impact assessments of natural hazards in Japan and East Asia

Mori, Nobuhito; Takemi, Tetsuya; Tachikawa, Yasuto; Tatano, Hirokazu; Shimura, Tomoya; Tanaka, T.; Fujimi, Toshimi; Osakada, Yukari; Webb, Adrean; Nakakita, Eiichi

doi:10.1016/j.wace.2021.100309

Cited by 46 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 148 publications

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“…According to the global risk report released by World Economic Forum (WEF), extreme weather emergencies from 2017 to 2020 have ranked first in terms of the probability of occurrence of the top ten global risks for four consecutive years. Affected by factors such as global temperature rise, sea level rise, and surface subsidence in some areas, the frequent and widespread problems of storm and flood disasters have become increasingly prominent [12][13][14][15]. Rainstorm and flood disasters have become one of the most common and serious natural disasters in many large cities in the world.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Assessment and Prediction of Rainstorm and Flood Disaster Based on Henan Province, China

Deng

Wang

2022

Mathematical Problems in Engineering

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To reasonably evaluate and predict the loss of rainstorm and flood disaster, this study is based on the rainfall data and rainstorm and flood disaster data of 18 cities in Henan Province from 2010 to 2020, using GIS technology and weighted comprehensive evaluation method to analyze the risk of rainstorm and flood disaster factors in various regions. The four risk factors of hazard risk, hazard-pregnant environment sensitivity, hazard-bearing body vulnerability, and disaster resilience were analyzed in compartment analysis. At the same time, a new rainstorm and flood disaster prediction model was constructed in combination with the hybrid PSO-SVR algorithm. The research results show that there are many rivers in Henan Province, the terrain tends to be higher in the west and lower in the east, and most areas are low plains, making most cities in Henan Province at a moderate risk level. For the more developed cities such as Zhengzhou, Luoyang, and Nanyang, the hazard risk, sensitivity, vulnerability, and disaster resistance are high, and they are prone to heavy rains and floods. For the economically underdeveloped, the terrain is high or hills, such as Sanmenxia City; Xinyang City and other places have low hazard risk and are not prone to rainstorms and floods. By constructing a hybrid PSO-SVR model, selecting two representative cities of Zhengzhou and Luoyang, and predicting the daily rainfall, the number of disasters, and the direct economic loss, the calculated RMSE and MAPE values are both less than GA-SVR, the traditional SVR, and BPNN models, which have verified the superiority of the model proposed in this study and the practical value it brings. To further verify the prediction accuracy of the hybrid model, the average value of RMSE and MAPE of other 16 cities are calculated, and the result is still smaller than other three models, and the study can provide some decision-making references for the urban rainstorm and flood management.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Assessment and Prediction of Rainstorm and Flood Disaster Based on Henan Province, China

Deng

Wang

2022

Mathematical Problems in Engineering

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“…In this study we took STCs and accompanying hydro-meteorological data following Leijnse et al (2022) as benchmark. It should be noted that the synthetic tracksand the sampled representative subsetare based on historical track records, thus they are dependent on the quality and length of those records (e.g., Mori et al, 2021). The underlying spatio-temporal statistical distributions (used in STC emulators) suffer from using relatively small datasets (observed or reanalysis data) in cyclogenesis and storm motion prediction.…”

Section: Tc Tracks and Hydro-meteorological Conditionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating tropical cyclone-induced wind, waves, and surge: A general methodology based on representative tracks

Bakker

Antolínez

Leijnse

et al. 2022

Coastal Engineering

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“…The welfare states in these countries are also less well equipped to provide social protection for citizens' livelihood when it is affected by these ecological risks. At the same time, research on storms in Japan indicates that even high-income countries will experience stronger ecological risks in the coming years (Mori et al, 2021). More effec-tive climate mitigation and adaptation to prevent or minimize the risks and potential damage are needed in all countries (see also BC Sustainability, 2021).…”

Section: A 'New Social Risks' Discourse Applied To Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Social policy research and climate change

Hvinden¹,

Schøyen²

2022

Social Policy in Changing European Societies

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Recent nationwide climate change impact assessments of natural hazards in Japan and East Asia

Cited by 46 publications

References 148 publications

Risk Assessment and Prediction of Rainstorm and Flood Disaster Based on Henan Province, China

Risk Assessment and Prediction of Rainstorm and Flood Disaster Based on Henan Province, China

Estimating tropical cyclone-induced wind, waves, and surge: A general methodology based on representative tracks

Social policy research and climate change

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