Recent patterns of crop yield growth and stagnation

Abstract

In the coming decades, continued population growth, rising meat and dairy consumption and expanding biofuel use will dramatically increase the pressure on global agriculture. Even as we face these future burdens, there have been scattered reports of yield stagnation in the world's major cereal crops, including maize, rice and wheat. Here we study data from B2.5 million census observations across the globe extending over the period . We examined the trends in crop yields for four key global crops: maize, rice, wheat and soybeans. Although yields continue to increase in many areas, we find that across 24-39% of maize-, rice-, wheat-and soybean-growing areas, yields either never improve, stagnate or collapse. This result underscores the challenge of meeting increasing global agricultural demands. New investments in underperforming regions, as well as strategies to continue increasing yields in the high-performing areas, are required.

Feeding humanity through global food trade

“…There is a growing concern that the limited resources of the planet will soon limit our ability to keep up with the increasing food demand by human societies [e.g., Godfray et al, 2010]. While the demand for food is steadily increasing and is competing with the rapidly growing need for agricultural products by other sectors such as biofuel production [e.g., Godfray et al, 2010], the supply of food crops is reaching a plateau [Ray et al, 2012]. On the demand side, demographic growth and changes in diet are placing unprecedented pressure on the food production system [e.g., Tilman et al, 2011;Cassidy et al, 2013;Hermele, 2014].…”

“…On the supply side, after the extraordinary increase in crop yields in the second half of last century (i.e., during the "green revolution"), the rates of agricultural production are expected to reach a plateau [Ray et al, 2012;Brown, 2013]. Likewise, it has been argued that capture marine fisheries might be at the verge of a sudden decline [Coll et al, 2008], while the ongoing increase in fish production from aquaculture, is 10.1002 partly sustained by feed inputs from terrestrial sources [Duarte et al, 2009;Gephart et al, 2014].…”

Genetic diversity in Brazilian soybean germplasm

“…In Brazil, the increase in cultivated area was closely associated with management innovation. As a result, yield rates increased in most cultivated areas (Ray et al 2012), and the country became the second largest producer in the world (USDA 2017).…”

Static yields and quality issues: Is the agri-environment program the primary driver?

“…In contrast to indications of increasing yield trends in many regions (Green et al 2012;Xiao and Tao 2014), there are alarming signs of a reduced pace in yield increases, static yields, and/or even yield declines (Ray et al 2012). Thus, yield trends indicate insufficiency in meeting the global demand for increases in food production (Ray et al 2013).…”