Recent Shift in Climate Relationship Enables Prediction of the Timing of Bird Breeding

Abstract

Large-scale climate processes influence many aspects of ecology including breeding phenology, reproductive success and survival across a wide range of taxa. Some effects are direct, for example, in temperate-zone birds, ambient temperature is an important cue enabling breeding effort to coincide with maximum food availability, and earlier breeding in response to warmer springs has been documented in many species. In other cases, time-lags of up to several years in ecological responses have been reported, with effects mediated through biotic mechanisms such as growth rates or abundance of food supplies. Here we use 23 years of data for a temperate woodland bird species, the great tit (Parus major), breeding in deciduous woodland in eastern England to demonstrate a time-lagged linear relationship between the on-set of egg laying and the winter index of the North Atlantic Oscillation such that timing can be predicted from the winter index for the previous year. Thus the timing of bird breeding (and, by inference, the timing of spring events in general) can be predicted one year in advance. We also show that the relationship with the winter index appears to arise through an abiotic time-lag with local spring warmth in our study area. Examining this link between local conditions and larger-scale processes in the longer-term showed that, in the past, significant relationships with the immediately preceding winter index were more common than those with the time-lagged index, and especially so from the late 1930s to the early 1970s. However, from the mid 1970s onwards, the time-lagged relationship has become the most significant, suggesting a recent change in climate patterns. The strength of the current time-lagged relationship suggests that it might have relevance for other temperature-dependent ecological relationships.

Wind and rain are the primary climate factors driving changing phenology of an aerial insectivore

“…In a study of tree swallows in California, Rose [50] found that average daily wind speed had a significant negative effect on the rate that adult tree swallows fed their young. Wet, cold, and windy conditions have also been seen to cause delays in egg laying and incubation in other tree swallow populations [48,49] as well as in other birds ( [8,10], but see [7]). These studies, plus the concordance of climate effects at our two study sites, suggests that the effect of wind observed in this study is not spurious, but reflects an important aspect of climate for this species that is rarely considered in analyses of climate change.…”

“…Climate change is a global phenomenon with well-documented effects, including increasing temperatures as well as changes in precipitation, humidity, snow pack depth and duration, storm frequency, and wind speed [1][2][3][4]. There is substantial evidence that climate change is causing or will cause range and phenology shifts in individual species and will alter the structure and composition of entire communities [5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14]. Determining what aspects of climate are driving these changes is challenging because of annual climate variation and the correlated shifts in multiple aspects of climate.…”

“…Determining what aspects of climate are driving these changes is challenging because of annual climate variation and the correlated shifts in multiple aspects of climate. To date, most analyses in terrestrial systems have implicitly or explicitly assumed that temperature is the major driver of ecological effects ( [1,[5][6][7][8][9]11,13,[15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28], but see [10,12,29]) Better understanding and prediction of climate effects relies on testing this assumption, as populations, species, communities, and ecosystems are likely to be differentially buffered against changes in the many aspects of the physical environment. Indeed, paleo-ecological data emphasize the non-congruent responses of different species to climate change, potentially a result of differential sensitivity to different aspects of climate [30,31].…”

“…Recent work has shown advanced phenology in both plant and animal species in marine, freshwater and terrestrial environments, especially at higher latitudes [18,[35][36][37][38][39][40][41]. In particular, avian species have shown mounting evidence of earlier breeding phenology [5][6][7][8][9][10]23,42,43] which is often assumed to result from increasing temperatures. One of the best studied North American species, the tree swallow, Tachycineta bicolor, has shown a 5-to 9-day advancement in average lay date over 32 years in the contiguous United States and Southern Canada.…”

Conservation of Australian insectivorous marsupials: biogeography, macroecology and life history

“…In seasonally breeding vertebrates, reproductive events are timed so that food availability is highest when nutritional demands of breeding are highest (Hau, 2001;Hinsley et al, 2016;Nager & van Noordwijk, 1995;Van Noordwijk et al, 1995). Increasing food availability directly triggers breeding in some species (Hau, 2001) but many use indirect cues.…”