Recent slowdown of tropical upper tropospheric warming associated with Pacific climate variability

Kamae, Youichi; Shiogama, Hideo; Ishii, Masayoshi; Ueda, Hiroaki; Kimoto, Masahide

doi:10.1002/2015gl063608

Cited by 17 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 61 publications

(111 reference statements)

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“…The P response to future climate change can be divided into two components: a "fast" response associated with the atmospheric component of CO 2 radiative forcing; and a "slow" response to the global surface warming independent of the forcing mechanism (Andrews et al 2011;Andrews et al 2010;Myhre et al 2016). The "fast" response arises because increased CO 2 concentrations lead to an immediate decrease in atmospheric longwave radiative cooling (Pendergrass and Hartmann 2014) and an increase in tropospheric heating, which is largely balanced by a rapid decrease in latent heating and hence global P (Bony et al 2013;Colman 2015;Kamae et al 2015;Richardson et al 2016;Samset et al 2016;Sherwood 2015;Tian et al 2016). The "slow" response occurs because global warming enhances longwave radiative cooling by the atmosphere, which is largely balanced by additional latent heating and precipitation, both of which increases by roughly 2-3% per Kelvin of global warming (Allen and Ingram 2002;Andrews et al 2010;Bala et al 2010;DeAngelis et al 2016).…”

Section: A Changes In Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Competing Influences of Anthropogenic Warming, ENSO, and Plant Physiology on Future Terrestrial Aridity

et al. 2017

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The 2011-2016 Californian drought illustrates that drought-prone areas do not always experience relief once a favorable phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) returns. In the 21 century, such an expectation is unrealistic in regions where global warming induces an increase in terrestrial aridity larger than the aridity changes driven by ENSO variability. This premise is also flawed in areas where precipitation supply cannot offset the global warming-induced increased evaporative demand. Here, atmosphere-only experiments are analyzed to identify land regions in which aridity is currently sensitive to ENSO, and where projected future changes in mean aridity exceed the range caused by ENSO variability. Insights into the drivers of these aridity changes are obtained in simulations with incremental addition of three different factors to current climate: ocean warming, vegetation response to elevated CO levels, and intensified CO radiative forcing. The effect of ocean warming overwhelms the range of ENSO-driven temperature variability worldwide, increasing potential evapotranspiration (PET) in most ENSO-sensitive regions. Additionally, ~39% of the regions currently sensitive to ENSO receive less precipitation in the future, independent of the ENSO phase. Aridity increases consequently in 67-72% of the ENSO-sensitive area. When both radiative and physiological effects are considered, the area affected by aridity rises to 75-79% when using PET-derived measures of aridity, but declines to 41% when total soil moisture aridity indicator is employed. This reduction mainly occurs because plant stomatal resistance increases under enhanced CO concentrations, which results in improved plant water use efficiency, and hence reduced evapotranspiration and soil desiccation. Imposing CO-invariant stomatal resistance may overestimate future drying in PET-derived indices.

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Section: A Changes In Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Competing Influences of Anthropogenic Warming, ENSO, and Plant Physiology on Future Terrestrial Aridity

et al. 2017

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“…Although the imposed ΔSST is spatially uniform, the tropospheric warming shows substantial regionality (e.g., larger warming off the west coast of the continents than in the Intertropical Convergence Zone, hereafter ITCZ). In a warming climate, the upper tropospheric warming is larger than lower and middle troposphere over the tropics [ Manabe and Wetherald , ; Kamae et al ., ]. Over climatological subsidence regions, vertical advection by climatological downward flow ( ω 500 > 0) acts as a warm advection, while the climatological ascending motion in the ITCZ ( ω 500 < 0) acts as a cold advection (the first term in the left‐hand side of equation 3 in Ma et al ., ) because of the larger warming in the upper troposphere [ Ma et al ., , Figure 2].…”

Section: Physical Mechanismsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Robust cloud feedback over tropical land in a warming climate

et al. 2016

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Cloud-related radiative perturbations over land in a warming climate are of importance for human health, ecosystem, agriculture, and industry via solar radiation availability and local warming amplification. However, robustness and physical mechanisms responsible for the land cloud feedback were not examined sufficiently because of the limited contribution to uncertainty in global climate sensitivity. Here we show that cloud feedback in general circulation models over tropical land is robust, positive, and is relevant to atmospheric circulation change and thermodynamic constraint associated with water vapor availability. In a warming climate, spatial variations in tropospheric warming associated with climatological circulation pattern result in a general weakening of tropical circulation and a dynamic reduction of land cloud during summer monsoon season. Limited increase in availability of water vapor also reduces the land cloud. The reduction of land cloud depends on global-scale oceanic warming and is not sensitive to regional warming patterns. The robust positive feedback can contribute to the warming amplification and drying over tropical land in the future.

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“…This SST difference may make a substantial contribution to the difference in the mid-to-upper tropospheric temperatures, where we see a cooler troposphere in the orbital forcing run than the PMIP3 as in Figs. 3 and 7 (Ueda et al 2006;Kamae et al 2015). In Fig.…”

Section: Possible Importance Of Other External Forcing Factorsmentioning

confidence: 93%

Seasonal modulation of the Asian summer monsoon between the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age: a multi model study

Kamae

Kawana

Oshiro

et al. 2017

Prog Earth Planet Sci

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Instrumental and proxy records indicate remarkable global climate variability over the last millennium, influenced by solar irradiance, Earth's orbital parameters, volcanic eruptions and human activities. Numerical model simulations and proxy data suggest an enhanced Asian summer monsoon during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) compared to the Little Ice Age (LIA). Using multiple climate model simulations, we show that anomalous seasonal insolation over the Northern Hemisphere due to a long cycle of orbital parameters results in a modulation of the Asian summer monsoon transition between the MWP and LIA. Ten climate model simulations prescribing historical radiative forcing that includes orbital parameters consistently reproduce an enhanced MWP Asian monsoon in late summer and a weakened monsoon in early summer. Weakened, then enhanced Northern Hemisphere insolation before and after June leads to a seasonally asymmetric temperature response over the Eurasian continent, resulting in a seasonal reversal of the signs of MWP-LIA anomalies in land-sea thermal contrast, atmospheric circulation, and rainfall from early to late summer. This seasonal asymmetry in monsoon response is consistently found among the different climate models and is reproduced by an idealized model simulation forced solely by orbital parameters. The results of this study indicate that slow variation in the Earth's orbital parameters contributes to centennial variability in the Asian monsoon transition.

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Recent slowdown of tropical upper tropospheric warming associated with Pacific climate variability

Cited by 17 publications

References 61 publications

Competing Influences of Anthropogenic Warming, ENSO, and Plant Physiology on Future Terrestrial Aridity

Competing Influences of Anthropogenic Warming, ENSO, and Plant Physiology on Future Terrestrial Aridity

Robust cloud feedback over tropical land in a warming climate

Seasonal modulation of the Asian summer monsoon between the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age: a multi model study

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