Recent Strengthened Impact of the Winter Arctic Oscillation on the Southeast Asian Surface Air Temperature Variation

Abstract

A previous study indicated that the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Siberian High (SH) are two important drivers for the interannual variation of winter surface air temperature (SAT) over southeast Asia. This study reveals that the impact of the winter SH on the southeast Asian SAT was stable. By contrast, the connection between the winter AO and southeast Asian SAT displays a pronounced interdecadal change around the late-1990s. Significant impact of the winter AO on the southeast Asian SAT can only be detected after the late-1990s. The result shows that change in the impact of the winter AO on southeast Asian SAT was mainly attributed to change in the spatial structure of the AO. Before the late-1990s, significant atmospheric signals related to the winter AO were confined to the North Atlantic region and the atmospheric anomalies over Eurasia were weak. As such, impact of the winter AO on the southeast Asian SAT was weak. By contrast, after the late-1990s, winter AO displays a more zonally symmetric structure, with significant negative sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies over the Arctic, and positive anomalies over mid-latitudes. Specifically, the positive SLP anomalies over East China induce clear northerly wind anomalies over southeast Asia, which lead to negative SAT anomalies there via wind-induced temperature advection. Hence, the winter AO has a significant impact on the southeast Asian SAT after the late-1990s. Further analysis shows that after the late-1990s, hindcast skill of the winter southeast Asian SAT anomalies was enhanced when taking both the winter AO and SH into account.

Multidecadal Changes in the Influence of the Arctic Oscillation on the East Asian Surface Air Temperature in Boreal Winter

“…Although many studies have reported that the AO can influence regional temperature, these influences may not be stable [25][26][27][28][29][30]. For example, Li et al [26] found that the link between the winter AO and an East Asian winter monsoon index experienced a significant interdecadal change during past decades.…”

Changes in the Frequency of Extreme Cooling Events in Winter over China and Their Relationship with Arctic Oscillation

“…Positive R values indicate a positive correlation between x and y; negative R values indicate a negative correlation between x and y. Significance levels of the correlation coefficient were estimated according to the two-tailed Student t-test [40].…”

Impact of the Eurasian Zonal Circulation on the Interannual Variability of Winter Surface Air Temperature and Subseasonal Temperature Reversal in North China

“…This pattern leads to anomalous westerly wind belts in the mid‐latitudes, transporting warm ocean air to the continents and resulting in milder winter SAT in the mid‐latitudes (Thompson & Wallace, 2000). Interestingly, some studies suggested that the effect of the AO on regional SAT might be unstable (Blackport & Screen, 2020; Chen & Song, 2019; Gong et al., 2018). The NAO, another important mode of atmospheric variability at mid‐high‐latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, also plays a crucial role in Northern Hemisphere winter SAT.…”