Recent trends in Iberian streamflows (1945–2005)

Lorenzo‐Lacruz, Jorge; Vicente‐Serrano, Sergio M.; López‐Moreno, Juan I.; Morán-Tejéda, Enrique; Zabalza, J.

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.11.023

Cited by 187 publications

(152 citation statements)

References 91 publications

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“…For the Iberian Peninsula, the few observations in the north show some deviations for the winter months, but otherwise agree with the modelled trends. Several other studies from the Iberian Peninsula have previously documented widespread negative runoff trends in which the climate component is still discernable despite a considerable additional impact of water management in the region (Lorenzo-Lacruz et al, 2012). For Italy and southeastern Europe, no streamflow observations were available to confirm the modelled patterns, although the findings accord with climate trends, which have shown a long-term drying in these areas of the Mediterranean (Sousa et al, 2011).…”

Section: Regional Trend Patterns and Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 71%

Filling the white space on maps of European runoff trends: estimates from a multi-model ensemble

Stahl

Tallaksen

Hannaford

et al. 2012

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

149

122

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Abstract. An overall appraisal of runoff changes at the European scale has been hindered by "white space" on maps of observed trends due to a paucity of readily-available streamflow data. This study tested whether this white space can be filled using estimates of trends derived from model simulations of European runoff. The simulations stem from an ensemble of eight global hydrological models that were forced with the same climate input for the period 1963-2000. The derived trends were validated for 293 grid cells across the European domain with observation-based trend estimates. The ensemble mean overall provided the best representation of trends in the observations. Maps of trends in annual runoff based on the ensemble mean demonstrated a pronounced continental dipole pattern of positive trends in western and northern Europe and negative trends in southern and parts of eastern Europe, which has not previously been demonstrated and discussed in comparable detail. Overall, positive trends in annual streamflow appear to reflect the marked wetting trends of the winter months, whereas negative annual trends result primarily from a widespread decrease in streamflow in spring and summer months, consistent with a decrease in summer low flow in large parts of Europe. High flow appears to have increased in rain-dominated hydrological regimes, whereas an inconsistent or decreasing signal was found in snow-dominated regimes. The different models agreed on the predominant continental-scale pattern of trends, but in some areas disagreed on the magnitude and even the direction of trends, particularly in transition zones between regions with increasing and decreasing runoff trends, in complex terrain with a high spatial variability, and in snow-dominated regimes. Model estimates appeared most reliable in reproducing observed trends in annual runoff, winter runoff, and 7-day high flow. Modelled trends in runoff during the summer months, spring (for snow influenced regions) and autumn, and trends in summer low flow were more variableboth among models and in the spatial patterns of agreement between models and the observations. The use of models to display changes in these hydrological characteristics should therefore be viewed with caution due to higher uncertainty.

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Section: Regional Trend Patterns and Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 71%

Filling the white space on maps of European runoff trends: estimates from a multi-model ensemble

Stahl

Tallaksen

Hannaford

et al. 2012

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

149

122

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“…Even if one concentrated only on one year, the list of such literature would be huge. To name some, in 2012 the relationships among trends in river flow and precipitation were investigated by Chen et al (2012), Ehsanzadeh et al (2012), Liu et al (2012), Lorenzo-Lacruz et al (2012), Shifteh Some'e et al (2012), Steffens and Franz (2012), Tabari et al (2012) or Wagesho et al (2012). Since the mid-1990s, the role of serial correlation (autocorrelation) frequently present in hydrometeorological series has been accented.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evolution of low flows in Czechia revisited

Ledvinka

2015

Proc. IAHS

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Abstract. Although a nationwide study focusing on the evolution of low flows in Czechia was conducted in the past, a need for the revision of the results has arisen. By means of the trend analysis, which specifically considers the presence of significant serial correlation at the first lag, the former study highlighted areas where 7-day low flows increase or decrease. However, taking into account only the lag-one autoregressive process might still have led to the detection of so-called pseudo-trends because, besides short-term persistence, also long-term persistence may adversely influence the variance of the test statistic when the independence among data is required. Therefore, one should carefully investigate the presence of persistence in time series. Before the trend analysis itself, the authors' previous studies aimed at the discrimination between short memory processes and long memory processes employing jointly the Phillips-Perron test and the Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin test. This analysis was accompanied by the Hurst exponent estimation. Here, the subsequent identification of trends is carried out using three modifications of the Mann-Kendall test that allow different kinds of persistence. These include the Bayley-Hammersley-Matalas-Langbein-Lettenmaier equivalent sample size approach, the trend-free pre-whitening approach and a block bootstrap with automatic selection of the block length, which was applied for the first time in hydrology. The general results are similar to those presented in the former study on trends. Nevertheless, the divergent minimum discharges evolution in the western part of Czechia is now much clear. Moreover, no significant increasing trend in series incorporating Julian days was found.

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“…Thus, it is established an increment of temperature between +0.8ºC and +1.4 and a decrease of precipitation in a range of -2.4% and -6.8%. The changes on climate and land cover along the last decades and the expected ones for the future reveal a decrease on basins discharge within the Mediterranean area as is noted in many studies [1,5,24,25,26,27,28]. Many other studies also reflect that climate and landuse changes have a direct effect on discharge decrease [29, 30,31,32,33].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 77%

“…In this region surface runoff and streamflow have dominantly decreased in the past three decades [1,5]. Such decrease may be related to an increase of temperatures, between 1 and 1.5 ºC for the Iberian peninsula [6], and to changes in land cover resulting from farmland abandonment [7] and increase in forest density [8].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The influence of climate and land-cover scenarios on dam management strategies in a high water pressure catchment in North-east Spain

Zabalza-Martínez

Vicente‐Serrano

López‐Moreno

et al. 2017

Proceedings of First International Electronic Conference on the Hydrological Cycle

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Abstract:The water management of Boadella-Darnius reservoir (NE Spain) has been analysed for the period 1971-2013 to understand the different strategies applied in the past. Streamflow has been projected under climate conditions included in the Third Report on Climate Change in Catalonia (TCCC) and under land-use change scenarios. We have simulated Darnius-Boadella reservoir inflow (2021-2050) using the Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System (RHESsys) with two objectives: (i) to analyse the impact of climate and land-use changes on the water resources of the basin and (ii) to analyse the different plausible strategies of water management at mid-term period . Results reveal a clear negative trend in dam inflow (-34.7%) since it was built in 1971. The simulations obtained with RHESsys show a similar trend at mid-term (2021-2050) with -31.1% under climate and land-use change conditions. Considering the ecological minimum flow outlined by Catalan Water Agency (ACA) and the possible dam inflow decrease, different water management strategies are needed to mitigate the effects of the expected climate change.

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Recent trends in Iberian streamflows (1945–2005)

Cited by 187 publications

References 91 publications

Filling the white space on maps of European runoff trends: estimates from a multi-model ensemble

Filling the white space on maps of European runoff trends: estimates from a multi-model ensemble

Evolution of low flows in Czechia revisited

The influence of climate and land-cover scenarios on dam management strategies in a high water pressure catchment in North-east Spain

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