Forests are expected to expand into alpine areas because of climate warming, causing land-cover change and fragmentation of alpine habitats. However, this expansion will only occur if the present upper treeline is limited by low-growing season temperatures that reduce plant growth. This temperature limitation has not been quantified at a landscape scale. Here, we show that temperature alone cannot realistically explain high-elevation tree cover over a >100-km 2 area in the Canadian Rockies and that geologic/geomorphic processes are fundamental to understanding the heterogeneous landscape distribution of trees. Furthermore, upslope tree advance in a warmer scenario will be severely limited by availability of sites with adequate geomorphic/topographic characteristics. Our results imply that landscape-to-regional scale projections of warming-induced, high-elevation forest advance into alpine areas should not be based solely on temperature-sensitive, site-specific upper-treeline studies but also on geomorphic processes that control tree occurrence at long (centuries/millennia) timescales.biogeoscience | forest ecology | climate change | niche modeling | remote sensing I n line with observations of significant temperature-related upward shifts in plant and animal species optimum elevation during the 20th century (1), future climate warming in mountain ecosystems is expected to cause an upward movement of tree cover. This upward forest expansion would effectively shrink the extent of alpine tundra, possibly causing species loss and ecosystem degradation through greater fragmentation (2-4), as well as a minor feedback on climate through increased carbon sequestration in subalpine forests (2). These predictions stem from upper treeline studies (5-8), which dominate research on tree cover in the alpine/subalpine region of mountain landscapes and overwhelmingly focus on the physiological temperature (T) limitation of tree growth (6, 9, 10) on specific kinds of sites. Although seldom described, typical site-based upper treeline studies have been performed away from cliffs, talus slopes, avalanche paths, incisive features, and bedrock and on gentle to moderately steep colluvium-mantled slopes with regolith where fieldwork is feasible and the climate signal maximized.Tree presence depends on successful recruitment, establishment, and growth (11,12), and these demographic processes are largely controlled by the availability and stability of substrate and the local energy and hydrological budgets. Changes in high-elevation tree cover will, thus, result from modifications on any of these controlling processes. Although topography and geomorphology have been identified as important in setting the observed heterogeneity of highelevation mountain tree cover (13-19), the effect of geomorphology on present and future high-elevation tree cover remains unquantified, and site-based studies overwhelmingly treat terrain physiognomy as a uniform neutral background. To address these questions, we conducted a statistical modeling exercise o...