Recent Wyoming temperature trends, their drivers, and impacts in a 14,000-year context

Shuman, Bryan N.

doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0223-5

Cited by 42 publications

(40 citation statements)

References 44 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…We then apply a mathematical model of dynamic equilibrium. This model assumes exponential population growth consistent with the observed growth rates, which are substantially slower than the rates of climate change (10,12) and thus produce lags in the population response (14).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 84%

“…A temperature reconstruction for the region derives from representative pollen profiles from Yellowstone National Park (Buckbean Fen, 44.30 N, 110.26 W, 2,363 m elevation) (8) and the Bighorn Mountains (Sherd Lake, 44.27 N, 107.01 W, 2,665 m) (9), on the west and east sides of the Bighorn Basin, respectively, and was generated using the modern analog technique, which matches fossil pollen samples to their best modern equivalents (10) (Figs. 1 and 2A).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

A continuous climatic impact on Holocene human population in the Rocky Mountains

Kelly¹,

Surovell²,

Shuman

et al. 2012

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

147

131

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Ancient cultural changes have often been linked to abrupt climatic events, but the potential that climate can exert a persistent influence on human populations has been debated. Here, independent population, temperature, and moisture history reconstructions from the Bighorn Basin in Wyoming (United States) show a clear quantitative relationship spanning 13 ka, which explains five major periods of population growth/decline and ∼45% of the population variance. A persistent ∼300-y lag in the human demographic response conforms with either slow (∼0.3%) intrinsic annual population growth rates or a lag in the environmental carrying capacity, but in either case, the population continuously adjusted to changing environmental conditions. climate change | demography | hunter-gatherers | paleoecology M any cultural changes have been linked to climate change, from the collapse of civilizations (1) to the frequency of civil conflict (2). However, tests of the relationship between climate and population size have been hampered by the lack of long-term, highresolution records that are collaboratively interpreted by archaeologists and paleoclimatologists (3). One consequence is that many archaeological examples emphasize the impact of severe events and have not resolved the importance of continuous climate change in shaping cultural history. Here, we report on high-resolution approaches to paleoclimate and population reconstructions that permit us to ask how human population size responds to moisture and temperature dynamics over long timescales. We examine the hunter-gatherer population history of the Bighorn Basin ( Fig. 1) in Wyoming (United States) over the past 13,000 y and test whether that history is associated with changes in moisture and temperature.Changes in the relative size of prehistoric human populations can be reconstructed using the frequency of radiocarbon dates (4, 5) if one accounts for discovery bias and taphonomic factors. The radiocarbon dataset (Dataset S1) includes 421 dates from open-air archaeological sites and 158 dates from closed sites (caves and rock shelters); all dates have SEs ≤ 100 y and come from anthropogenic contexts. The open-and closed-site dates were separately calibrated and the summed probability values (SPVs) generated by CALPAL (6); open-site values were then corrected for taphonomic loss (7). Relative basinwide population changes derive from an average of the open-and closed-site SPVs, which was then smoothed and standardized (Fig. 2C). We note that our analysis assumes that the ratio of summed probability to actual population remains constant throughout time, and that the open and closed sites should be weighted equally. These assumptions might deserve investigation in the future.Two independent paleoclimate datasets test whether the observed demographic changes were driven by climate change. A temperature reconstruction for the region derives from representative pollen profiles from Yellowstone National Park (Buckbean Fen, 44.30 N, 110.26 W, 2,363 m elevation) (8) and the Bigho...

show abstract

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 84%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

A continuous climatic impact on Holocene human population in the Rocky Mountains

Kelly¹,

Surovell²,

Shuman

et al. 2012

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

147

131

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…3A). The MCA was used as a period of recent warming, but previous periods in the Holocene have been warmer (61). We examined the relationship between temperature and the percentage of sites burned at the same resolution as the temperature data (30-y time steps) using the presmoothed median estimate of the percentage of sites burned in a simple linear model (Fig.…”

Section: Detecting Pastmentioning

confidence: 99%

Medieval warming initiated exceptionally large wildfire outbreaks in the Rocky Mountains

Calder

Parker

Stopka

et al. 2015

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

114

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Many of the largest wildfires in US history burned in recent decades, and climate change explains much of the increase in area burned. The frequency of extreme wildfire weather will increase with continued warming, but many uncertainties still exist about future fire regimes, including how the risk of large fires will persist as vegetation changes. Past fire-climate relationships provide an opportunity to constrain the related uncertainties, and reveal widespread burning across large regions of western North America during past warm intervals. Whether such episodes also burned large portions of individual landscapes has been difficult to determine, however, because uncertainties with the ages of past fires and limited spatial resolution often prohibit specific estimates of past area burned. Accounting for these challenges in a subalpine landscape in Colorado, we estimated century-scale fire synchroneity across 12 lakesediment charcoal records spanning the past 2,000 y. The percentage of sites burned only deviated from the historic range of variability during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) between 1,200 and 850 y B.P., when temperatures were similar to recent decades. Between 1,130 and 1,030 y B.P., 83% (median estimate) of our sites burned when temperatures increased ∼0.5°C relative to the preceding centuries. Lake-based fire rotation during the MCA decreased to an estimated 120 y, representing a 260% higher rate of burning than during the period of dendroecological sampling (360 to −60 y B.P.). Increased burning, however, did not persist throughout the MCA. Burning declined abruptly before temperatures cooled, indicating possible fuel limitations to continued burning.wildfire | climate change | Medieval Climate Anomaly

show abstract

“…Montane ecosystems, which occupy approximately 20 % of the planet's land surface, may be particularly vulnerable to climate change [6]. The higher elevations of the northern Rocky Mountains, USA, for example, have experienced nearly three times the global average temperature increase over the past century, with an unprecedented decrease in snowpack ( [7,8], but see [9]). Simultaneously, montane environments often support unique species assemblages and a high degree of endemism which can be disproportionately affected by warming [10][11][12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Microrefuges and the occurrence of thermal specialists: implications for wildlife persistence amidst changing temperatures

Hall

Chalfoun

Beever

et al. 2016

Clim Chang Responses

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background: Contemporary climate change is affecting nearly all biomes, causing shifts in animal distributions, phenology, and persistence. Favorable microclimates may buffer organisms against rapid changes in climate, thereby allowing time for populations to adapt. The degree to which microclimates facilitate the local persistence of climate-sensitive species, however, is largely an open question. We addressed the importance of microrefuges in mammalian thermal specialists, using the American pika (Ochotona princeps) as a model organism. Pikas are sensitive to ambient temperatures, and are active year-round in the alpine where conditions are highly variable. We tested four hypotheses about the relationship between microrefuges and pika occurrence: 1) Local-habitat Hypothesis (local-habitat conditions are paramount, regardless of microrefuge); 2) Surface-temperature Hypothesis (surrounding temperatures, unmoderated by microrefuge, best predict occurrence); 3) Interstitial-temperature Hypothesis (temperatures within microrefuges best predict occurrence), and 4) Microrefuge Hypothesis (the degree to which microrefuges moderate the surrounding temperature facilitates occurrence, regardless of other habitat characteristics). We examined pika occurrence at 146 sites across an elevational gradient. We quantified pika presence, physiographic habitat characteristics and forage availability at each site, and deployed paired temperature loggers at a subset of sites to measure surface and subterranean temperatures. Results: We found strong support for the Microrefuge Hypothesis. Pikas were more likely to occur at sites where the subsurface environment substantially moderated surface temperatures, especially during the warm season. Microrefugium was the strongest predictor of pika occurrence, independent of other critical habitat characteristics, such as forage availability. Conclusions: By modulating surface temperatures, microrefuges may strongly influence where temperature-limited animals persist in rapidly warming environments. As climate change continues to manifest, efforts to understand the changing dynamics of animal-habitat relationships will be enhanced by considering the quality of microrefuges.

show abstract

Recent Wyoming temperature trends, their drivers, and impacts in a 14,000-year context

Cited by 42 publications

References 44 publications

A continuous climatic impact on Holocene human population in the Rocky Mountains

A continuous climatic impact on Holocene human population in the Rocky Mountains

Medieval warming initiated exceptionally large wildfire outbreaks in the Rocky Mountains

Microrefuges and the occurrence of thermal specialists: implications for wildlife persistence amidst changing temperatures

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About