Recidivism Among Child Sexual Abusers: Initial Results of a 13-Year Longitudinal Random Sample

Sentencing Outcomes of Convicted Child Sex Offenders

“…This limitation is mitigated somewhat by prior research showing those reaching final disposition and those not reaching final disposition during the fiscal year are not significantly different (Patrick & Marsh, 2009). Some of the cases in this analysis were pending sentencing, but only those convicted were used.…”

“…This method of data collection resulted in significant missing data, as many of the cases had not reached final resolution when the data were collected. Prior analysis has shown that those cases reaching conclusion, mostly those cases filed early in the fiscal year, are not different from those cases not reaching conclusion, mostly those cases filed late in the fiscal year (Patrick & Marsh, 2009).…”

“…The lack of any knowledge of prior offenses and the very limited information on the demographics of the offenders means spuriousness could be an issue. Other research has shown that fewer than 10% of child sex offenders will offend more than once and only a very small percentage will reoffend more than twice (Patrick & Marsh, 2009), but lack of this criminal history for this group of offenders casts a shadow on this work as those with prior convictions can be expected to receive longer sentences and are more likely to be sent to prison.…”

“…This demonstrates that in most cases supervising convicted offenders in the community is beneficial to community safety. While child sex offenders are often seen as predatory by nature, recidivism for child sex offender is often lower than for other types of offenders (Patrick & Marsh, 2009). Continuing research shows that predictive assessments, including sex offender evaluations, have validity in predicting recidivism for violent crimes (Loza, MacTavish, & Loza-Fanous, 2007).…”

Intra- and extra-familial child sexual abusers and recidivism in Sweden: a 10- to 15-year follow-up study

“…Thus, the rates of sexual recidivism vary quite widely between studies, especially with longer follow-up. Over 13 years, only 9.2% of a random sample of American sex offenders relapsed (Patrick & Marsh, 2009), but 61.1% of a clinically referred Canadian sample, followed for at least 25 years, were reconvicted, and when undetected sex crimes were included, 88.3% had reoffended sexually (Langevin et al, 2004). Although these figures are extreme (recidivism rates of 25-40% are most commonly found in follow-up studies of about 20 years [Hanson, Morton, & Harris, 2003]), they also illustrate how big the differences may be between studies from different countries.…”