Recipe for Successful Meteorology Majors: Are Incoming Test Scores Indicative?

Abstract

Many high school students with a passion for meteorology visit college campuses each year, inquiring about program details and learning of the rigorous math requirements and somewhat daunting attrition risk. The natural question for many is, “Can I do it?” To address this question, the study herein has investigated the sensitivity of meteorology major outcomes at Valparaiso University to incoming test scores (based on 2008–14 first-year cohorts). These former students are classified as meteorology alumni (MET Degree), graduates of other programs (Other VU Degree), and those who left the University (Left VU). There is an additional performance classification, which indicates students who completed the program in good standing (On Track), students that completed the program with greater difficulty (Below Track), those who left the program in good academic standing (Left On Track), and those who left the program after not doing well (Left Below Track). Results indicate that incoming test scores are indeed indicative of student outcomes, with a substantially greater likelihood of being On Track and graduating with the MET Degree among students with higher incoming ACT scores. Among students who Left Below Track, signs of academic challenges typically appear within first semester calculus and/or the introductory meteorology course. Higher admission standards would increase retention and graduation rates, but at a cost of barring admission for some students who have been successful in the program.