Reconciling global-model estimates and country reporting of anthropogenic forest CO2 sinks

Grassi, Giacomo; House, Joanna Isobel; Kurz, Werner A.; Cescatti, Alessandro; Houghton, Richard A.; Peters, Glen P.; Sanz, María José; Viñas, Raúl Abad; Alkama, Ramdane; Arneth, Almut; Bondeau, Alberte; Dentener, Frank; Fader, Marianela; Federici, Sandro; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Jain, Atul K.; Kato, Etsushi; Koven, C.; Lee, Donna; Nabel, Julia E. M. S.; Nassikas, Alexander A.; Perugini, Lucia; Rossi, Simone; Sitch, Stephen; Viovy, Nicolas; Wiltshire, Andy; Zaehle, Sönke

doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0283-x

Cited by 134 publications

(163 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…The use of different definitions, conceptual frameworks, and methods currently hinders the comparison of national and global data sources (Grassi et al, 2018;Roman-Cuesta et al, 2016;Tubiello et al, 2015); for example, there is a discrepancy of~4 GtCO2eq between historic LULUCF emissions estimates from national GHG inventories and the global models used to develop mitigation pathways (Grassi et al, 2018). However, reduction in other sources of uncertainty will require clear and accurate reporting by countries of LULUCF emissions/removals in their GHG inventories, as well as further work by the carbon flux research and observations communities.…”

Section: Implications For Implementing the Pamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Our analysis does not consider uncertainties caused by differences in how emissions fluxes in the land sector are defined and categorized, and in the completeness of different data sets (Pongratz et al, 2014;Roman-Cuesta et al, 2016;Tubiello et al, 2015). A growing body of literature has highlighted how different methods for estimating anthropogenic sinks can lead to very different results; for example, there are clear discrepancies between country-reported LULUCF data and emissions data from land use models (Grassi et al, 2018).…”

Section: Other Sources Of Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Uncertainty in ex post tracking comes primarily from historical emissions data uncertainty, driven by measurement uncertainties and definitional uncertainties, both of which are substantial for LULUCF data (Grassi et al, 2018;Pongratz et al, 2014;Roman-Cuesta et al, 2016;Tubiello et al, 2015). Uncertainty in ex post tracking comes primarily from historical emissions data uncertainty, driven by measurement uncertainties and definitional uncertainties, both of which are substantial for LULUCF data (Grassi et al, 2018;Pongratz et al, 2014;Roman-Cuesta et al, 2016;Tubiello et al, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the context of the Global Stocktake, there are two different time frames for tracking progress: ex post (i.e., monitoring progress to-date with historical emissions data) and ex ante (i.e., assessing anticipated progress by comparing NDC-based projections against long-term goals). Uncertainty in ex post tracking comes primarily from historical emissions data uncertainty, driven by measurement uncertainties and definitional uncertainties, both of which are substantial for LULUCF data (Grassi et al, 2018;Pongratz et al, 2014;Roman-Cuesta et al, 2016;Tubiello et al, 2015). Ex ante tracking faces additional uncertainties caused by ambiguity over how to translate NDCs into absolute emissions, uncertainties in how recent anthropogenic emissions and removals will be counted toward NDCs (using so-called "accounting rules"; Iversen et al, 2014), and uncertainties over whether and how a Party will achieve its NDC.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Ambiguity in the Land Use Component of Mitigation Contributions Toward the Paris Agreement Goals

Fyson

Jeffery

2019

Earth's Future

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Land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) activities, including deforestation and forest restoration, will play an important role in addressing climate change. Countries have stated their contributions to reducing emissions and enhancing sinks in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs); in 2023, the Global Stocktake will assess the collective impact of these NDCs. Clarity in the contribution of LULUCF to NDC targets is necessary to prevent high LULUCF uncertainties from undermining the strength and clarity of mitigation in other sectors. We assess and categorize all 167 NDCs and find wide variation in how they incorporate LULUCF; many lack the clear information necessary to understand what land-based mitigation is anticipated. The land sector is included in 121 NDCs, but only 11 provide a LULUCF target that can be fully quantified using information presented or referenced in the NDC. By developing alternative scenarios from a subset of 62 NDCs (89 countries), we estimate that ambiguity in LULUCF contributions causes an uncertainty range in the anticipated LULUCF sink in 2030 of magnitude 2.9 GtCO2eq/year-larger in size than our best estimate for the LULUCF sink of −2 GtCO2eq/year. Clearer communication of data sources and assumptions underlying the contribution of land use to mitigation efforts is therefore important for ensuring a robust Global Stocktake and ambitious emissions reductions. We find that guidance under the Paris Agreement may improve the clarity of future NDCs but is not sufficient to eliminate ambiguities. We therefore recommend that LULUCF targets should be presented and accounted for separately from other sectors.Plain Language Summary Land-based activities, including reducing deforestation and planting forests, play an important role in addressing climate change. Under the Paris Agreement, 195 countries agreed to produce national climate change action plans for reducing their emissions. Many of these plans already include land-based activities, but there is currently no common rule set for how to do so in a scientifically robust way. Our study shows that most national climate action plans are ambiguous in how land-based activities will contribute to reducing emissions. This makes it difficult to track the role of land-based activities in global efforts to address climate change and leaves the door open for countries to use uncertain land-based mitigation to offset emissions from burning fossil fuels. We estimate that this ambiguity causes an uncertainty of~3 GtCO2/year in 2030; this is larger than our estimate of the total human-made land use sink in 2030 (-2 GtCO2/year). Recently, countries agreed a set of guidance for how to describe their climate change action plans. This guidance will help to reduce some ambiguity in the role of land-based mitigation, but it is not sufficient to eliminate ambiguity. We recommend that countries should keep their land-based mitigation plans separate from targets in other sectors.

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Section: Implications For Implementing the Pamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Other Sources Of Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Ambiguity in the Land Use Component of Mitigation Contributions Toward the Paris Agreement Goals

Fyson

Jeffery

2019

Earth's Future

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“…Recognizing differences in disturbance regimes is fundamental to reconciling global‐forest estimates and country reporting of anthropogenic forest CO 2 sinks (Grassi et al. ) and to revealing decisive targets in carbon mitigation strategy (Erb et al. ).…”

Section: Facing Complex Problems In Search Of a Solutionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Need for a global map of forest naturalness for a sustainable future

Chiarucci

Piovesan

2019

Conservation Biology

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There is a growing need to assess and monitor forest cover and its conservation status over global scales to determine human impact on ecosystems and to develop sustainability plans. Recent approaches to measure regional and global forest status and dynamics are based on remotely sensed estimates of tree cover. We argue that tree cover should not be used to assess the area of forest ecosystems because tree cover is an undefined subset of forest cover. For example, tree cover can indicate a positive trend even in the presence of deforestation, as in the case of plantations. We believe a global map of forest naturalness that accounts for the bio‐ecological integrity of forest ecosystems, for example, intact forests, old‐growth forest patches, rewilding forests (exploited forest landscapes undergoing long‐term natural succession), and managed forests is needed for global forest assessment.

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How Well Do We Understand the Land-Ocean-Atmosphere Carbon Cycle?

Crisp

Dolman

Tanhua

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Since the beginning of the industrial age, human activities have increased the atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) to levels never before seen in human history. These large increases are driving climate change because CO 2 is an efficient greenhouse gas with atmospheric residence times spanning years to millennia (see Box 6.1 of Ciais et al. [2013]). Bottom-up statistical inventories indicate that fossil fuel combustion, industry, agriculture, forestry, and other human activities are now adding more than 11.5 Pg of carbon (Pg C) to the atmosphere each year (Friedlingstein et al., 2019(Friedlingstein et al., , 2020(Friedlingstein et al., , 2021. Direct measurements of CO 2 in the atmosphere and in air bubbles in ice cores (Etheridge et al., 1996) indicate that human activities have increased the globally averaged atmospheric CO 2 dry air mole fraction from less than 277 parts

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Reconciling global-model estimates and country reporting of anthropogenic forest CO2 sinks

Cited by 134 publications

References 48 publications

Ambiguity in the Land Use Component of Mitigation Contributions Toward the Paris Agreement Goals

Ambiguity in the Land Use Component of Mitigation Contributions Toward the Paris Agreement Goals

Need for a global map of forest naturalness for a sustainable future

How Well Do We Understand the Land-Ocean-Atmosphere Carbon Cycle?

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