Tropical cyclone activity over the last 5000 years is investigated using overwash sediments from coastal lagoons on the islands of Vieques, Puerto Rico and Koshikijima, Japan. A simple sediment transport model can reproduce the landward fining deposits observed at Vieques, and reveals that although the record exhibits centennial-tomillennial changes in hurricane overwash frequency, the magnitude of these flooding events has remained relatively constant. Stochastic simulations of hurricane overwash show that breaks in activity at Vieques are extremely long and unlikely to occur under the current hurricane climatology and the present barrier morphology. Periods of less frequent hurricane deposition at Vieques are contemporaneous with intervals of increased El Nifio occurrences and reduced precipitation in West Africa, suggesting a dominant influence by these two climatic phenomena. Hiatuses in overwash activity between 3600-to-2500 and 1000-500 years ago are longer than what is generated by overwash simulations under a constant El Niflo-like state, indicating that mechanisms in addition to variability in the El Nifio/Southern Oscillation are required to completely produce the overwash variability at Vieques. Periods of low overwash activity at Vieques are concurrent with increased overwash activity at Kamikoshiki and may indicate a correspondence between tropical cyclone activity in the western Northern Atlantic and the western North Pacific.Thesis Supervisor:Jeffrey P. Donnelly Title:Associate Scientist, Department of Geology and Geophysics Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
AcknowledgementsAbove all, I would like to thank my advisor Jeff Donnelly. I have been extremely fortunate to have had Jeff as an advisor, and am indebted to him for his unwavering support over the course of my dissertation, both professionally and personally. I admire Jeff greatly for his scientific enthusiasm, insight, and generosity, and will always consider him a strong role model throughout my academic career. I am also grateful to Rocky Geyer, whose mentorship extends back over 14 years to when he first took me on as a Summer Student Fellow at WHOI. Rocky's help and guidance since I arrived in Woods Hole has been invaluable and I sincerely appreciate everything he has done for me. I would also like to thank David Mohrig who had been generous with both his ideas and expertise, especially with respect to the inverse modeling work described in Chapter 3, which builds upon previously unpublished research of his. Most of Chapter 4 would not have been possible without the help of Kerry Emanuel who has been extremely gracious both with his time, knowledge, and resources. I also thank Delia Oppo whose door was always open to me, and Rob Evans for agreeing to act as the chair of my defense.In addition to my committee, I would like to thank both the past and present members of the Coastal Systems Group at WHOI who I have enjoyed collaborating with immensely: Andrew Ashton, Katie Boldt, Ilya Buynevich, Zion Klos, Liviu Giosan, Maya Gomes...