Reconstruction and variability of high daily erythemal ultraviolet doses and relationship with total ozone, cloud cover, and albedo in Novi Sad (Serbia)

Malinović-Milićević, Slavica; Radovanović, Milan; Mijatović, Z.; Petrović, Marko D.

doi:10.1002/joc.7803

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 49 publications

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“…Daily erythemal UV doses were reconstructed for Novi Sad, Serbia [ 254 ]. Using a radiative transfer model with inputs of TCO and snow cover data, plus empirical relations between erythemal doses and sunshine duration, statistically significant increases in erythemal UV doses of 8.8% and 13.1% per decade over the period 1980–1997 were found for summer and winter, respectively, which were linked to the statistically significant decline in TCO over this period.…”

Section: Variability In Uv Radiation and Trends From Observationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stratospheric ozone, UV radiation, and climate interactions

Bernhard

Bais

Aucamp³

et al. 2023

Photochem Photobiol Sci

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This assessment provides a comprehensive update of the effects of changes in stratospheric ozone and other factors (aerosols, surface reflectivity, solar activity, and climate) on the intensity of ultraviolet (UV) radiation at the Earth’s surface. The assessment is performed in the context of the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer and its Amendments and Adjustments. Changes in UV radiation at low- and mid-latitudes (0–60°) during the last 25 years have generally been small (e.g., typically less than 4% per decade, increasing at some sites and decreasing at others) and were mostly driven by changes in cloud cover and atmospheric aerosol content, caused partly by climate change and partly by measures to control tropospheric pollution. Without the Montreal Protocol, erythemal (sunburning) UV irradiance at northern and southern latitudes of less than 50° would have increased by 10–20% between 1996 and 2020. For southern latitudes exceeding 50°, the UV Index (UVI) would have surged by between 25% (year-round at the southern tip of South America) and more than 100% (South Pole in spring). Variability of erythemal irradiance in Antarctica was very large during the last four years. In spring 2019, erythemal UV radiation was at the minimum of the historical (1991–2018) range at the South Pole, while near record-high values were observed in spring 2020, which were up to 80% above the historical mean. In the Arctic, some of the highest erythemal irradiances on record were measured in March and April 2020. For example in March 2020, the monthly average UVI over a site in the Canadian Arctic was up to 70% higher than the historical (2005–2019) average, often exceeding this mean by three standard deviations. Under the presumption that all countries will adhere to the Montreal Protocol in the future and that atmospheric aerosol concentrations remain constant, erythemal irradiance at mid-latitudes (30–60°) is projected to decrease between 2015 and 2090 by 2–5% in the north and by 4–6% in the south due to recovering ozone. Changes projected for the tropics are ≤ 3%. However, in industrial regions that are currently affected by air pollution, UV radiation will increase as measures to reduce air pollutants will gradually restore UV radiation intensities to those of a cleaner atmosphere. Since most substances controlled by the Montreal Protocol are also greenhouse gases, the phase-out of these substances may have avoided warming by 0.5–1.0 °C over mid-latitude regions of the continents, and by more than 1.0 °C in the Arctic; however, the uncertainty of these calculations is large. We also assess the effects of changes in stratospheric ozone on climate, focusing on the poleward shift of climate zones, and discuss the role of the small Antarctic ozone hole in 2019 on the devastating “Black Summer” fires in Australia. Additional topics include the assessment of advances in measuring and modeling of UV radiation; methods for determining personal UV exposure; the effect of solar radiation management (stratospheric aerosol injections) on UV radiation relevant for plants; and possible revisions to the vitamin D action spectrum, which describes the wavelength dependence of the synthesis of previtamin D3 in human skin upon exposure to UV radiation. Graphical abstract

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Section: Variability In Uv Radiation and Trends From Observationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stratospheric ozone, UV radiation, and climate interactions

Bernhard

Bais

Aucamp³

et al. 2023

Photochem Photobiol Sci

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Increasing solar UV radiation in Dortmund, Germany: data and trend analyses and comparison to Uccle, Belgium

Lorenz,

Heinzl,

Bauer

et al. 2024

Photochem Photobiol Sci

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Increasing solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR) can raise human exposure to UVR and adversely affect the environment. Precise measurements of ground-level solar UVR and long-term data series are crucial for evaluating time trends in UVR. This study focuses on spectrally resolved data from a UVR measuring station in Dortmund, Germany (51.5° N, 7.5° E, 130 m a.s.l.). After a strict quality assessment, UV data, such as the daily maximum UV Index (UVImax) and daily erythemal radiant exposure (Her,day) values, were analyzed concerning monthly and annual distribution, frequency, occurrence of highest values and their influencing factors. An advanced linear trend model with a flexible covariance matrix was utilized and applied to monthly mean values. Missing values were estimated by a validated imputation method. Findings were compared to those from a station in Uccle, Belgium (50.8° N, 4.3° E, 100 m a.s.l.). Parameters possibly influencing trends in both UVR and global radiation, such as ozone and sunshine duration, were additionally evaluated. The 1997–2022 trend results show a statistically significant increase in monthly mean of Her,day (4.9% p. decade) and UVImax (3.2% p. decade) in Dortmund and Her,day (7.5% p. decade) and UVImax (5.8% p. decade) in Uccle. Total column ozone shows a slight decrease in the summer months. Global radiation increases similarly to the UV data, and sunshine duration in Dortmund increases about twice as much as global radiation, suggesting a strong influence of change in cloud cover. To address health-related consequences effectively, future adaptation and prevention strategies to climate change must consider the observed trends. Graphical abstract

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Long-Term Changes of Positive Anomalies of Erythema-Effective UV Irradiance Associated with Low Ozone Events in Germany 1983–2019

Laschewski

Matzarakis

2023

Environments

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In order to assess whether there is an increasing need for adaptation to the associated human health risks, the long-term occurrence (1983–2019) of low-ozone events (LOEs) with associated near-surface anomalies of erythema-effective UV irradiance was examined using an impact-related approach. Based on satellite data, means of four locations in Germany (Sylt, Berlin, Frankfurt, Munich) were compared for three subperiods (T1: 1983–1989, T2: 1990–1997, T3: 1998–2019). The period of peak global ozone depletion in the 1990s (T2) is characterized by a larger frequency of LOEs than the preceding (T1) and the subsequent (T3) subperiods. During the most recent subperiod (T3), the mean number of LOEs is 1.1 ± 0.5 events/year, with a variability of 0 to 4.2 ± 0.8 events/year, and shows a statistically significant decrease in the annual number of −4.8%/year. The annual totals of the LOE-associated anomalies of the erythema-effective UV radiation dose show no trend during T3. With regard to LOE-associated UV index anomalies, spring is the season most affected by LOEs, with more than half of all cumulative UV peak loads, while the absolute maximum values of the LOE-associated UV index anomaly of about 1.8 UV index occur near the summer solstice. Within the most recent subperiod (T3), summer contributes an increasing share of the peak loads. Overall, the study confirms that LOEs pose health risks due to intermittent, pronounced positive anomalies in erythema-effective UV irradiance and therefore require special attention and adaptation measures. Long-term changes can be identified, but to date there has been no evidence of an increasing health risk in Germany.

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Reconstruction and variability of high daily erythemal ultraviolet doses and relationship with total ozone, cloud cover, and albedo in Novi Sad (Serbia)

Cited by 3 publications

References 49 publications

Stratospheric ozone, UV radiation, and climate interactions

Stratospheric ozone, UV radiation, and climate interactions

Increasing solar UV radiation in Dortmund, Germany: data and trend analyses and comparison to Uccle, Belgium

Long-Term Changes of Positive Anomalies of Erythema-Effective UV Irradiance Associated with Low Ozone Events in Germany 1983–2019

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