Reconstruction of Surface Water Temperature in Lakes as a Source for Long-Term Analysis of Its Changes

Abstract

One of the key parameters of lakes is water temperature, which influences many physical and biochemical processes. In Poland, in situ temperature measurements are or have been conducted in only about 30 lakes, whereas there are over 3000 lakes with an area larger than 10 hectares. In many cases, the length of existing observation series is not always sufficient for long-term analysis. Using artificial neural networks of the multilayer perceptron network (MLP) type, the reconstruction of average monthly water temperatures was carried out for nine lakes located in northern Poland. During the validation stage of the reconstruction results, BIAS values were obtained in the range of −0.33 to 0.44 °C, the mean absolute error was 0.46 °C, and the root mean square error was 0.61 °C. The high quality of the reconstructed data allowed for an assessment of water temperature changes in the analyzed lakes from 1993 to 2022 using the Mann–Kendall and Sen tests. It was found that, on an annual basis, the water temperature increased by an average of 0.50 °C per decade, ranging from 0.36 °C per decade to 0.64 °C per decade for individual lakes. For specific months, the largest increase was observed in November, about 0.99 °C per decade, and the smallest in May, 0.07 °C per decade. The obtained results confirm previous studies in this field while adding new data from lakes, which are particularly significant for the western part of Poland—a region with a previously limited number of monitored lakes. According to the findings, the analyzed lakes have undergone significant warming over the past three decades, which is important information for water management authorities.