2021
DOI: 10.3390/atmos12020147
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Reconstruction of the Interannual to Millennial Scale Patterns of the Global Surface Temperature

Abstract: Climate changes are due to anthropogenic factors, volcano eruptions and the natural variability of the Earth’s system. Herein the natural variability of the global surface temperature is modeled using a set of harmonics spanning from the inter-annual to the millennial scales. The model is supported by the following considerations: (1) power spectrum evaluations show 11 spectral peaks (from the sub-decadal to the multi-decadal scales) above the 99% confidence level of the known temperature uncertainty; (2) spec… Show more

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Cited by 17 publications
(33 citation statements)
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References 147 publications
(450 reference statements)
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“…Unknown astronomical forcings or internal mechanisms could generate natural oscillations in the climate system that the models can not reproduce because of missing physical mechanisms; yet, since a number of their internal parameters are tuned against the observations [33], the GCMs could approximately reproduce the warming observed from 1850 to 2020 and, simultaneously, mistake its real physical attributions [5,6]. Indeed, alternative total solar irradiance and global climate estimates already proposed in the scientific litterature suggest everything from no role for the Sun since the pre-industrial period (1850-1900), which implies that recent global warming is mostly human-caused, to most of the recent global warming being due to changes in solar activity, which would mean that recent global warming is mostly natural [21].…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
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“…Unknown astronomical forcings or internal mechanisms could generate natural oscillations in the climate system that the models can not reproduce because of missing physical mechanisms; yet, since a number of their internal parameters are tuned against the observations [33], the GCMs could approximately reproduce the warming observed from 1850 to 2020 and, simultaneously, mistake its real physical attributions [5,6]. Indeed, alternative total solar irradiance and global climate estimates already proposed in the scientific litterature suggest everything from no role for the Sun since the pre-industrial period (1850-1900), which implies that recent global warming is mostly human-caused, to most of the recent global warming being due to changes in solar activity, which would mean that recent global warming is mostly natural [21].…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Yet, such a 60-year oscillation is not reproduced by the GCMs because the anthropogenic emissions continuously increased and accelerated during the 20th century [5,6,63] despite some cooling in the 1960s because of volcanic and anthropogenic aerosols. In particular, no computer model has predicted the pause (known also as the "hiatus") observed between 1998 and 2014 in the global temperatures [64].…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
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