Reconstruction of the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index for the Western Region of Durango State, Mexico

Cabral-Alemán, Citlalli; Zúñiga-Vásquez, José Manuel; Quiñonez-Barraza, Gerónimo; Gómez-Guerrero, Armando; Arreola-Ávila, Jesús G.

doi:10.3390/f13081233

Cited by 4 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 51 publications

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“…The decision was based on the SPEI's effectiveness as a versatile drought indicator, using meteorological data to assess global drought situations at multiple scales e.g., [29]. It has been successful in certain regions to combine tree rings with the SPEI to examine the community dynamics of plants impacted by drought [2,[32][33][34]. Nevertheless, this technique is new in Pakistan and has not been widely applied, particularly in the Hindu Kush region.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reconstruction of July-September standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) for the Hindu Kush region of Northern Pakistan

Asad,

Adil,

Khan

et al. 2024

Environ. Res. Commun.

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The Prolonged drought resulting from global warming is considered an important factor affecting the Asia's socioeconomic growth of West Asia, with a significant impact on the dynamic forecasting of water supply and forest ecosystems. In such a scenario, Understanding future long-term drought (SPEI) changes is crucial for accurately forecasting regional drought shifts in the Hindukush region. In this study, a 517-year (1506-2022 CE) long tree-ring width chronology of the Himalayan Cedar (Cedrus deodara D. Don) from the eastern Hindukush has been developed. The July-September SPEI has revealed a positive and significant relationship (r = 0.633, p < 0.001) with tree growth, which leads to SPEI reconstruction from AD 1626 in the Hindu Kush Region. Our reconstruction model has explained 40.01% of the climate variance during the instrumental period from AD 1965 to 2018. Fourteen wet periods (≥ 3 years) were observed before the instrumental period, specifically in C.E. 1629–1635, 1638–1658, 1666–1674, 1680–1701, 1715–1724, 1770–1776, 1794–1797, 1802–1810, 1822–1846, 1850–1857, 1872–1881, 1883–1890, 1906–1914, and 1921–1937. Similarly, twelve dry summer periods were also observed in the past 339 years, such as C.E. 1659–1665, 1675–1679, 1702–1714, 1725–1769, 1777–1793, 1798–1801, 1811–1821, 1847–1849, 1858–1871, 1891–1905, 1915–1920, and 1938–1963. Nevertheless, AD 1663 was individually the wettest (with a value of 2.13), while AD 1754 was the driest (-0.99) year. The spatial correlation analysis and its comparisons with Karakoram-Himalayan drought and precipitation reconstructions have convincingly confirmed the reliability of our SPEI reconstruction. Consequently, this reconstruction can effectively serve as a proxy for large-scale drought variability in the Hindu Kush region of northern Pakistan. Our findings strongly suggest the considerable dendrochronological potential for further climatological studies in the western Hindu Kush Mountains System.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reconstruction of July-September standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) for the Hindu Kush region of Northern Pakistan

Asad,

Adil,

Khan

et al. 2024

Environ. Res. Commun.

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Climatic response of Juniperus monticola Martinez, a multi-century alpine shrub from the high mountains of central Mexico

Vázquez-Selem,

Franco-Ramos,

Villanueva-Díaz

et al. 2024

The Holocene

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The mountain juniper Juniperus monticola Martinez, a decumbent alpine shrub found at elevations up to 4600 m a.s.l. on the high mountains of central Mexico, is the woody species growing at highest elevation in North America. It reaches an age close to a millenium, which probably makes it the oldest alpine shrub in the world. We conducted a dendrochronological study of this species at Pico de Orizaba volcano, the highest peak in Mexico, to analyze its dendroclimatic potential and the influence of ocean-atmospheric forcing on the interannual variability of radial growth. A ring-width chronology was developed extending from 1178 to 2016 (839 years). Climate data from a local weather station and from CRU TS version 4.01 were used to determine the climatic response of J. monticola. The species is positively correlated to the average maximum temperature of May–June ( r = 0.38, p < 0.05) and negatively to the March-April precipitation ( r = −0.44, p < 0.05) of the local weather station. Gridded drought indices (PDSI, SPEI) were used to analyze the combined effect of rising temperatures and evapotranspiration on ring-width. A significant negative response ( r = −0.354, p < 0.01) was found between the instrumental PDSI records (June, July, August) and the ring-width series; similarly, a negative correlation was obtained for the SPEI from December of the previous year to June of the current year ( r = −0.4, p < 0.01). These negative correlations suggest that higher temperatures occurring in recent decades are favoring increases in radial growth. The ring-width chronology is significantly correlated, although weakly, with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation, consistent with the influence of those phenomena on PDSI and SPEI over central Mexico.

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Climatic response of Juniperus monticola Martinez, a multi-century alpine shrub from the high mountains of central Mexico

Vázquez-Selem,

Franco-Ramos,

Villanueva-Diaz

et al. 2024

Preprint

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The mountain juniper Juniperus monticola Martinez, a decumbent alpine shrub growing at elevations up to 4600 m a.s.l. on the high mountains of central Mexico, reaches an age of nearly a millennium. We conducted a dendrochronological study of this species at Pico de Orizaba volcano, the highest peak in central Mexico, to analyze its dendroclimatic potential and the influence of ocean-atmospheric forcing on the interannual variability of radial growth. A ring-width chronology was developed extending from 1178 to 2016 (839 years). Climate data from a local weather station and from CRU TS version 4.01 were used to determine the climatic response of J. monticola. The species is positively correlated to the average maximum temperature of May-June (r = 0.38, p < 0.05) and negatively to the March-April precipitation (r= -0.44, p < 0.05) of the local weather station. Gridded drought indices (PDSI, SPEI) were used to analyze the combined effect of rising temperatures and evapotranspiration on ring-width. A significant negative response (r = -0.354, p < 0.01) was found between the instrumental PDSI records (June, July, August) and the ring-width series; similarly, a negative correlation was obtained for the SPEI from December of the previous year to June of the current year (r = -0.4, p < 0.01). These negative correlations suggest that higher temperatures occurring in recent decades are favoring increases in radial growth. The ring-width chronology is significantly correlated, although weakly, with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation, consistent with the influence of those phenomena on PDSI and SPEI over central Mexico.

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Reconstruction of the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index for the Western Region of Durango State, Mexico

Cited by 4 publications

References 51 publications

Reconstruction of July-September standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) for the Hindu Kush region of Northern Pakistan

Reconstruction of July-September standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) for the Hindu Kush region of Northern Pakistan

Climatic response of Juniperus monticola Martinez, a multi-century alpine shrub from the high mountains of central Mexico

Climatic response of Juniperus monticola Martinez, a multi-century alpine shrub from the high mountains of central Mexico

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