Recovery and adjustment trajectories among Hurricane Florence survivors: Analysis utilizing nonlinear dynamic system modeling

Abstract

Self‐regulation shift theory (SRST) argues that most individuals are able to successfully recover from trauma via engagement in self‐regulation processes as well as the effective utilization of internal and environmental resources. However, a minority of individuals may instead experience a self‐determination violation as a result of their self‐regulatory capacity being overwhelmed. This self‐determination violation is marked by chaotic and shifting adjustment, maladaptive regulation attempts, and, ultimately, a shift to an impaired self‐state and the development of persistent psychopathology, such as posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). The current study utilized nonlinear dynamic system (NDS) analysis to identify adjustment trajectory dynamics among rural hurricane survivors in North Carolina (N = 131) who completed daily ecological momentary assessments (EMAs) regarding their distress (i.e., negative mood and PTSD symptoms), regulation efforts (e.g., coping), and appraisals (e.g., coping self‐efficacy) over a 6‐week period. Four adjustment trajectories were identified, including two largely adaptive trajectories (69.0% and 5.7%), a less stable adjustment trajectory (6.9%), and a fourth trajectory (18.4%) marked by shifting adjustment states and more frequent maladaptive regulation and negative appraisals, suggesting possible self‐determination violation. Consistent with this possibility, this final trajectory was also associated with more severe PTSD symptoms relative to the other three trajectories at enrollment and 6‐month follow‐up. Future work should utilize NDS to model posttrauma adjustment dynamics from within a SRST framework to identify patterns of positive and negative adjustment dynamics at different time points in the trauma recovery process.