Recovery Period of Air Transportation: Vector Error Correction Model

Abstract

Air transportation has two significant modules named air passenger and freight. Air transport is the primary module of civil aviation and because of its nature, air transport has been simultaneously affected by Pandemics and crises. Gulf Crisis, 9/11, 2008–2009 Financial Crisis, SARS, and MERS Pandemics harm air transport, however, the influence of COVID-19 was more devastating than the other Pandemics and crises due to its global effect. This effect has continued a long period that still this effect exists now with a slight trend. The aim of this study is to analyse the selected variables that shows the past and future trend of air transportation related to operational and financial status. These variables are the primary ones that can define the countries' general status in air transport. The forecasting results are examined by 9-months forecasting with Vector Error Correction Model. It is forecasted that slightly decreasing trend will proceed in the following 9-months for passenger transportation due to fall and winter seasons. It is forecasted that slightly upward trend will proceed in the following 3-months and slightly decreased in the other 6-months for cargo transportation due to potential economic crisis in 2023. The originality of this paper is the first research related to analyse passenger and freight transportation together with the operational and financial parameters that defined in the sample of data and methodology sections.

Characteristics of Volatile Organic Compounds Emitted from Airport Sources and Their Effects on Ozone Production

“…The rapid economic development of China has facilitated the growth of the civil aviation industry, which is critical for long-distance travel and logistical transport [ 5 , 6 ]. For more than a decade, civil aviation traffic volumes have continuously increased, with an annual growth rate of 4.2% [ 7 ]. China’s civil aviation has become the second-largest air transportation system worldwide [ 8 ], with airport emissions demonstrating an increasing impact on air quality in airport regions in recent years.…”