Recovery potential of fish and coral populations following ecological disturbance

Abstract

The health of coral reef benthic and fish communities is implicitly connected, yet typically studied and managed separately. By developing a coupled reef population model that connects coral populations and reef fish biomass through the habitat complexity that corals build and fish live among, we aim to address this gap by holistically quantifying ecological feedbacks and responses to ecological stressors. We explored the impacts of fishing effort in conjunction with three types of ecological disturbances as they propagated through a coral reef ecosystem: (1) a disturbance that disproportionately affected small, bio‐energetically vulnerable colonies, (2) a disturbance that predominantly affected large, mechanically vulnerable colonies, and (3) a disturbance that affected colonies of all sizes randomly. We found that joint coral and fish population recovery was fastest and most complete under events affecting small colonies, followed by recovery from disturbances affecting random sizes, and lastly large‐colony disturbances. These results suggest that the retention versus loss of large coral colonies with high reproductive potential critically influenced population recovery. Low fishing levels maintained fish and coral populations and allowed for recovery after disturbances, whereas high fishing levels prevented recovery due to greater fish‐dependent coral mortality. Finally, we tested various formulations of the relationship between coral size and habitat complexity (i.e., exponential, linear, logarithmic) that constrain fish carrying capacity. All formulations led to similar population projections in most disturbance scenarios, but there were exceptions where the timing and trajectory of recovery differed, such as faster and greater recovery potential when complexity is logarithmic with respect to coral size. These findings suggest that fishing and habitat complexity mediate the recovery of coral reef populations, emphasizing the importance of describing linkages between coral size distribution and reef habitat structure. Furthermore, our results highlight the utility of the coupled‐model framework for understanding and managing the impact of disturbances at ecosystem scales.