Redefining the Portuguese transition to democracy

Graham, Lawrence S.

doi:10.1017/cbo9781139173902.011

Cited by 5 publications

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“…The outcome was by no means obvious at the time. Many feared that the coup makers-which included officers aligned with the Communist Party-would introduce a Marxist dictatorship (Graham, 1992;Linz and Stepan, 1996). Although the coup was instrumental in removing the regime, many accounts accord popular mobilization a key role in securing the democratic transition (Accornero, 2013;Fernandes, 2015;Miller, 2021).…”

Section: Post-coup Challenges During Mass Mobilizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Clouds with silver linings: how mobilization shapes the impact of coups on democratization

Dahl

Gleditsch

2023

European Journal of International Relations

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There is a long-standing debate over the impact of coups on democratization. Some argue that coups can help promote transitions to democratic rule. Yet, others contend that coups often spur increased repression and autocratization, undermining hopes of democratic reform. We argue that both democratic and autocratic changes are more likely after a coup and that popular mobilization plays a crucial role in shaping the post-coup trajectory. Democratization is more likely when coups occur in the presence of significant popular mobilization. A coup reveals cracks within a regime, and the combination of pressure from within and threat from below during popular mobilizations fosters greater incentives to promise democratic reform. In the absence of popular mobilization, autocratic rule is more likely, especially when a coup is successful. We test our argument on the combined effect of popular mobilization and coups on changes in democracy in a global dataset, considering the specific dates of events and institutional changes, the outcomes of coups, and using decay functions to capture persistent effects. The analysis provides strong support for our argument, with the key findings robust across a number of alternative tests. Our analysis underscores the value of examining variation in the context of coups to understand their likely political consequences.

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Section: Post-coup Challenges During Mass Mobilizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Clouds with silver linings: how mobilization shapes the impact of coups on democratization

Dahl

Gleditsch

2023

European Journal of International Relations

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“…As would be expected given the nature of the transition, there were no 'carry over' ministers, and military officers held several civilian ministerial portfolios; besides, two of the three Prime Ministers and the two Presidents of this period were also military. Nevertheless, the various pacts that were celebrated between the MFA and the political parties ensured the establishment of a democratic regime -even if it was to be supervised by the armed forces (Graham, 1992).…”

Section: Periodization and Nature Of Regime Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Portuguese Ministers, 1851–1999: Social Background and Paths to Power

Pinto¹

2002

South European Society and Politics

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This paper provides an empirical analysis of the impact of regime changes in the composition and patterns of recruitment of the Portuguese ministerial elite throughout the last 150 years. The 'out-of-type', violent nature of most regime transformations accounts for the purges in and the extensive replacements of the political personnel, namely of the uppermost officeholders. In the case of Cabinet members, such discontinuities did not imply, however, radical changes in their social profile. Although there were some significant variations, a series of salient characteristics have persisted over time. The typical Portuguese minister is a male in his midforties, of middle-class origin and predominantly urban-born, highly educated and with a state servant background. The two main occupational contingents have been university professors -except for the First

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Democratization and Its Legacies

Pinto

Paris

2022

The Oxford Handbook of Portuguese Politics

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The fall of the Portuguese dictatorship, in 1974, heralded the ‘third wave’ of democratizations. Unshackled by international pro-democracy forces and occurring during the Cold War, the coup led to a severe state crisis that was further aggravated by the fact that the processes of democratization and decolonization happened simultaneously. In this chapter, we argue that a correlation must be established between the nature of Portugal’s democratization and not only the absence of a veto capacity by former authoritarian elites and institutions, due to their collapse, but especially the cleavages created by democratization and military intervention in politics. We also argue that the transition’s powerful momentum served to form another legacy for the consolidation of democracy, superseding and transmuting its impact on Portugal’s democracy.

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Redefining the Portuguese transition to democracy

Cited by 5 publications

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Clouds with silver linings: how mobilization shapes the impact of coups on democratization

Clouds with silver linings: how mobilization shapes the impact of coups on democratization

Portuguese Ministers, 1851–1999: Social Background and Paths to Power

Democratization and Its Legacies

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