Redistribution of salmon populations in the northeast Pacific ocean in response to climate

Shelton, Andrew O.; Sullaway, Genoa; Ward, Eric J.; Feist, Blake E.; Somers, Kayleigh A.; Tuttle, Vanessa J.; Watson, Jordan T.; Satterthwaite, William H.

doi:10.1111/faf.12530

Cited by 31 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 73 publications

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“…Most SDMs have been applied in a historical context, to describe and understand drivers of past changes in species distribution and their overlap. An increasing number of studies are also using SDMs for climate change applications (e.g., Shelton et al, 2020), but use of SDMs to anticipate short-to medium-term (days to years) changes in species availability has only recently begun to receive attention (e.g., Thorson, 2019a) despite the need for such products (Comment 9). Modelbased distribution forecasts have been used to reduce unintended catch of southern bluefin tuna in the East Australia Current (Hobday et al, 2010) and to explore reducing seabird interactions in the North Pacific Transition Zone (Žydelis et al, 2011).…”

Section: Species Distributions and Their Overlapmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Climate change is expected to alter fish abundance and distribution (Cheung et al, 2010;Morley et al, 2018) and PFMC advisory bodies are interested in evaluating the potential risk of shifting species availability to coastal communities (Comments 14-15). Fine scale oceanographic data from remote sensing and ocean models, in combination with spatially explicit survey, tagging or logbook data, has enabled development of SDMs for a variety of PFMC-managed species (e.g., Thorson et al, 2016;Shelton et al, 2020). When data on fisher behavior (e.g., trip distance) is available from logbooks, port-specific fishing grounds can be identified and target species availability from SDMs over the fishing grounds can be computed (Rogers et al, 2019).…”

Section: Interactions Between the Environment And Fishing Communitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Case Study in Connecting Fisheries Management Challenges With Models and Analysis to Support Ecosystem-Based Management in the California Current Ecosystem

et al. 2021

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One of the significant challenges to using information and ideas generated through ecosystem models and analyses for ecosystem-based fisheries management is the disconnect between modeling and management needs. Here we present a case study from the U.S. West Coast, the stakeholder review of NOAA’s annual ecosystem status report for the California Current Ecosystem established by the Pacific Fisheries Management Council’s Fisheries Ecosystem Plan, showcasing a process to identify management priorities that require information from ecosystem models and analyses. We then assess potential ecosystem models and analyses that could help address the identified policy concerns. We screened stakeholder comments and found 17 comments highlighting the need for ecosystem-level synthesis. Policy needs for ecosystem science included: (1) assessment of how the environment affects productivity of target species to improve forecasts of biomass and reference points required for setting harvest limits, (2) assessment of shifts in the spatial distribution of target stocks and protected species to anticipate changes in availability and the potential for interactions between target and protected species, (3) identification of trophic interactions to better assess tradeoffs in the management of forage species between the diet needs of dependent predators, the resilience of fishing communities, and maintenance of the forage species themselves, and (4) synthesis of how the environment affects efficiency and profitability in fishing communities, either directly via extreme events (e.g., storms) or indirectly via climate-driven changes in target species availability. We conclude by exemplifying an existing management process established on the U.S. West Coast that could be used to enable the structured, iterative, and interactive communication between managers, stakeholders, and modelers that is key to refining existing ecosystem models and analyses for management use.

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Section: Species Distributions and Their Overlapmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Interactions Between the Environment And Fishing Communitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Case Study in Connecting Fisheries Management Challenges With Models and Analysis to Support Ecosystem-Based Management in the California Current Ecosystem

et al. 2021

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“…Due to their long-distance transboundary ocean migrations and shifting phenologies, there is strong geographic variability in the individual Chinook salmon stocks available for fisheries and dependent predators (Chinook Technical Committee, 2019;Shelton et al, 2019Shelton et al, , 2021Weitkamp, 2010). Chinook salmon ocean distribution estimates suggest considerable among-stock variation in distribution (Shelton et al, 2019(Shelton et al, , 2021Weitkamp, 2010). Yet there is a lack of comprehensive understanding in how ocean distributions interact with variability in stock abundances to affect Chinook salmon predictability and availability for ocean harvest and predator populations (Jarillo et al, 2020).…”

Section: The Causes and Consequences Of Variable Marine Survival Inmentioning

confidence: 99%

Synchrony erodes spatial portfolios of an anadromous fish and alters availability for resource users

Sullaway

Shelton

Samhouri

2021

Journal of Animal Ecology

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1. Environmental forces can create spatially synchronous dynamics among nearby populations. However, increased climate variability, driven by anthropogenic climate change, will likely enhance synchrony among spatially disparate populations.Population synchrony may lead to greater fluctuations in abundance, but the consequences of population synchrony across multiple scales of biological organization, including impacts to putative competitors, dependent predators or human communities, are rarely considered in this context. Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha stocks distribute across the NortheastPacific, creating spatially variable portfolios that support large ocean fisheries and marine mammal predators, such as killer whales Orcinus orca. We rely on a multi-population model that simulates Chinook salmon ocean distribution and abundance to understand spatial portfolios, or variability in abundance within and among ocean distribution regions, of Chinook salmon stocks across 17 ocean regions from Southeast Alaska to California.3. We found the expected positive correlation between the number of stocks in an ocean region and spatial portfolio strength; however, increased demographic synchrony eroded Chinook salmon spatial portfolios in the ocean. Moreover, we observed decreased resource availability within ocean fishery management jurisdictions but not within killer whale summer habitat. We found a strong portfolio effect across both Southern Resident and Northern Resident killer whale habitats that was relatively unaffected by increased demographic synchrony, likely a result of the large spatial area included in these habitats. However, within the areas of smaller fishing management jurisdictions we found a weakening of Chinook salmon portfolios and increased but inconsistent likelihood of low abundance years as demographic synchrony increased.4. We suggest that management and conservation actions that reduce spatial synchrony can enhance short-term ecosystem resilience by promoting the stabilizing effect multiple stocks have on aggregate Chinook salmon populations and overall resource availability.

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“…For instance, fishing pressure in the sea and decreased access to marine environments due to dams represent important issues [20,21]. Moreover, emerging threats related to climate change altering marine temperature regimes and adverse effects of marine aquaculture, such as accummulation of parasites that subsequently infect wild populations have become increasingly important [22][23][24][25]. In addition to general population declines, increased mortality at sea could also disproportionally affect the resident or migratory components of populations showing facultative anadromy.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-term monitoring of a brown trout (Salmo trutta) population reveals kin-associated migration patterns and contributions by resident trout to the anadromous run

et al. 2021

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Background In species showing partial migration, as is the case for many salmonid fishes, it is important to assess how anthropogenic pressure experienced by migrating individuals affects the total population. We focused on brown trout (Salmo trutta) from the Guddal River in the Norwegian Hardanger Fjord system, which encompasses both resident and anadromous individuals. Aquaculture has led to increased anthropogenic pressure on brown trout during the marine phase in this region. Fish traps in the Guddal River allow for sampling all ascending anadromous spawners and descending smolts. We analyzed microsatellite DNA markers from all individuals ascending in 2006–2016, along with all emigrating smolts in 2017. We investigated (1) if there was evidence for declines in census numbers and effective population size during that period, (2) if there was association between kinship and migration timing in smolts and anadromous adults, and (3) to what extent resident trout were parents of outmigrating smolts. Results Census counts of anadromous spawners showed no evidence for a decline from 2006 to 2016, but were lower than in 2000–2005. Estimates of effective population size also showed no trends of declines during the study period. Sibship reconstruction of the 2017 smolt run showed significant association between kinship and migration timing, and a similar association was indicated in anadromous spawners. Parentage assignment of 2017 smolts with ascending anadromous trout as candidate parents, and assuming that unknown parents represented resident trout, showed that 70% of smolts had at least one resident parent and 24% had two resident parents. Conclusions The results bear evidence of a population that after an initial decline has stabilized at a lower number of anadromous spawners. The significant association between kinship and migration timing in smolts suggests that specific episodes of elevated mortality in the sea could disproportionally affect some families and reduce overall effective population size. Finally, the results based on parentage assignment demonstrate a strong buffering effect of resident trout in case of elevated marine mortality affecting anadromous trout, but also highlight that increased mortality of anadromous trout, most of which are females, may lower overall production in the system.

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Redistribution of salmon populations in the northeast Pacific ocean in response to climate

Cited by 31 publications

References 73 publications

A Case Study in Connecting Fisheries Management Challenges With Models and Analysis to Support Ecosystem-Based Management in the California Current Ecosystem

A Case Study in Connecting Fisheries Management Challenges With Models and Analysis to Support Ecosystem-Based Management in the California Current Ecosystem

Synchrony erodes spatial portfolios of an anadromous fish and alters availability for resource users

Long-term monitoring of a brown trout (Salmo trutta) population reveals kin-associated migration patterns and contributions by resident trout to the anadromous run

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