Redistricting in Virginia: Identifying a Gerrymandered Map using County Levels

Abstract

This paper analyzes redistricting in Virginia between the 2010 and 2020 election cycles. While existing redistricting research proposes solutions to gerrymandering, identifies gerrymandered maps, and reviews the local effects of redistricting, there lacks research using smaller levels of analysis. Thus, this study employs a meta-analysis, comparing a partisan index of each of Virginia’s 134 counties to the congressional district that county was a part of, in both 2010 and 2020. The results demonstrate an average 3 percent decrease in the disparity between a county’s partisanship and the entire district from 2010 to 2020. This change in the average distance between a county’s partisanship and its district indicates that the 2020 redistricting made Virginia’s districts more representative. This conclusion is corroborated by other Virginia-focused studies. By using counties as levels of analysis, this study delves deeper into how to identify gerrymandering using smaller groups. Given how important redistricting is to the American voting system, more research is needed to better understand the best way to identify a gerrymandered map.