Reduced CO2 fertilization effect in temperate C3 grasslands under more extreme weather conditions

Obermeier, Wolfgang A.; Lehnert, Lukas W.; Kammann, Claudia; Müller, Christoph; Grünhage, Ludger; Luterbacher, Jürg; Erbs, Martin; Moser, Gerald M.; Seibert, Ruben; Yuan, Naiming; Bendix, Jörg

doi:10.1038/nclimate3191

Cited by 118 publications

(96 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…First, extreme weather conditions (Ciais et al, 2005;Obermeier et al, 2016;Reichstein et al, 2013) might limit, over time, the trend of CO 2 fertilization, a negative impact that is not correctly represented in current models. First, extreme weather conditions (Ciais et al, 2005;Obermeier et al, 2016;Reichstein et al, 2013) might limit, over time, the trend of CO 2 fertilization, a negative impact that is not correctly represented in current models.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Vegetation Response to Rising CO₂ Impacts Extreme Temperatures

Lemordant

Gentine

2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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Extreme temperatures are responsible for damages to society and ecosystems. There is evidence that severe episodes of extreme heat have been occurring more frequently and more severely in recent periods. Driven primarily by oceanic and atmospheric effects as well as land‐climate feedbacks, those extreme events are expected to increase with climate change. Vegetation, which regulates the energy, water, and carbon cycles, is a key player of land‐atmosphere interactions that has been proven to be determinant in recent extreme events. Using an ensemble of Earth System Models simulations, we show that physiological effects globally increase the annual daily maximum temperature (Txx) with rising [CO2], accounting globally for around 13% of the full Txx trend. Due to physiological effects, Txx can reinforce (e.g., central Europe) or reduce (e.g., central North America) the mean temperature increase.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Vegetation Response to Rising CO₂ Impacts Extreme Temperatures

Lemordant

Gentine

2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…A recent study found that climate extremes may reduce the CO 2 fertilization effect [95]. Because the HPM-UEM model, like most general ecosystem models, was designed and parameterized to simulate the ecological processes under ordinary climate condition, its performance under climate extremes are questionable.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is possible that the model may underestimated the negative effects of future climate change on NPP. Moreover, the model does not consider the effects of climate change on tropospheric ozone concentration, diseases and disturbances (e.g., increasing wild-fire events), which may threaten the ecosystem sustainability under the future scenarios [53,[95][96][97][98][99][100][101]]. An ecosystem with higher NPP is not necessarily more resistant to the increased disturbances (drought and flood) in the future.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting the CO2 and Climatic Change Effects on the Net Primary Productivity of the Urban Ecosystems in Phoenix, AZ in the 21st Century under Multiple RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) Scenarios

Chen

Zhang

2017

Sustainability

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Abstract:Urban vegetation provides ecological services that promote both the ecosystem integrity and human well-being of urban areas, and thus is critical to urban sustainability. As a key indicator of ecological health, net primary productivity (NPP) provides valuable information about the performance of urban ecosystem in response to the changes in urban climate and atmosphere in the 21st century. In this study, a process-based urban ecosystem model, HPM-UEM (Hierarchical Patch Mosaic-Urban Ecosystem Model), was used to investigate spatiotemporal dynamics of urban ecosystem NPP in the Phoenix city, AZ under three representative concentration pathway (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) during the 21st century. The results indicated that, by the end of the 21st century, the urban ecosystem's NPP would increase by 14% (in RCP2.6), 51% (in RCP4.5) and 99% (in RCP8.5) relative to that in the late 2000s, respectively. Factorial analysis indicated that CO 2 fertilization effect would be the major driver of NPP change, accounting for 56-61% of the NPP increase under the scenarios. Under the RCP2.6 scenario, the strongest NPP increase would be found in the agricultural lands located in the west and southeast of the city. Under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the strongest NPP increase would be found in the mesic residential areas that mainly located to the eastern, southern, and southwestern of the Phoenix Mountains Preserve. Although higher ecosystem NPP in the future implies improved ecosystem services that may help to alleviate the heat stress (by providing more shading) and air pollution in the city, this will be at the cost of higher irrigation water usage, probably leading to water shortage in the natural ecosystems in this arid region. Furthermore, this study indicated the rich (such as in mesic residential area) would enjoy more benefits from the improved urban ecosystem services than the poor (such as in xeric residential area).

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“…As this may severely reduce the crops water requirements, it also affects the sustainability of croplands in arid and semi arid regions. Studies have identified a 15 greening in recent years that is in large parts related to the CFE (Zhu et al, 2016), however, it is very uncertain which role it may play for future crop yields, and it is even possible that it's benefits will be balanced completely by other factors such as nitrogen limitations (Rosenzweig et al, 2014;Smith et al, 2015;Obermeier et al, 2016).In simulations with the MPI-ESM, the CFE is very pronounced and, to investigate the limits of food production without this 20 highly uncertain effect, we performed an additional set of simulations (IR26*,IR45*,RF45* and IR85*) that are identical to IR26,IR45,RF45 and IR85 but with the plant available CO 2 limited to the level of the year 2005, i.e. 380.00 ppmv.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…greening in recent years that is in large parts related to the CFE (Zhu et al, 2016), however, it is very uncertain which role it may play for future crop yields, and it is even possible that it's benefits will be balanced completely by other factors such as nitrogen limitations (Rosenzweig et al, 2014;Smith et al, 2015;Obermeier et al, 2016).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change imposed limitations on potential food production

Vrese

Stacke

Hagemann

2017

Preprint

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Abstract. An adapted Earth system model is used to investigate the limitations that future climate and water availability impose on the potential expansion and productivity of croplands. The model maximises the cropland area under prevailing climate conditions and accounts for an optimized, sustainable irrigation practice, thus allowing to consider the two-way feedback between climate and agriculture. We show that the total cropland area could be extended substantially throughout the 21st century, especially in South America and sub-Saharan Africa, where the rising water demand resulting from increasing temperatures 5 can largely be met by increasing precipitation and irrigation rates. When accounting for the CO 2 fertilization effect, only few agricultural areas have to be abandoned, while increasing temperatures allow to expand croplands even into high northern latitudes. Without the CO 2 fertilization effect there is no increase in the overall cropland fraction during the second half of the century but areal losses in increasingly water-stressed regions can be compensated by an expansion in regions, previously too cold. However, global yields are more sensitive and, without the benefits of CO 2 fertilization, they may decrease when 10 green house gas concentrations exceed the RCP4.5 scenario. For certain regions the situation is even more concerning and guaranteeing food security in dry areas in Northern Africa, the Middle East and South Asia will become increasingly difficult, even under the most optimistic assumptions. Food supply and climate changeThe question of how many people Earth may accommodate is anything but new, and increasing population sizes have been 15 connected to societal problems by as early as the 18th century (Cohen, 1995a; Van Den Bergh and Rietveld, 2004; UN, 2012).Different factors determine the maximum number of Earth's inhabitants, one of the most elemental being the availability of food. Here, suitable soils, energy and fresh water constitute the most essential factors determining food security, as the largest extent of our food supply originates from agriculture. The availability of these inputs, especially that of fresh water, depends on climatic conditions and understanding their vulnerability to climate change is a major challenge of climate research (Marotzke 20 et al., 2017). At the same time, agricultural activity has substantial impacts on climate through the alteration of land-surface characteristics and the redistribution of water via irrigation.Numerous studies have investigated the planet's human carrying capacity as a function of the potential food supply (Cohen, 1995a, b; Van Den Bergh and Rietveld, 2004; Franck et al., 2011; UN, 2012;Sakschewski et al., 2014), the effect of climate 25 change on agriculture and water resources (Rosenzweig and Parry, 1994;Jones and Thornton, 2003;Parry et al., 2004; Fis- cher et al., 2005;Elliott et al., 2013;Haddeland et al., 2013;Konzmann et al., 2013;Wada et al., 2013; Rosenzweig et al., 2014;Pugh et al., 2016) and the clima...

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Reduced CO2 fertilization effect in temperate C3 grasslands under more extreme weather conditions

Cited by 118 publications

References 31 publications

Vegetation Response to Rising CO₂ Impacts Extreme Temperatures

Vegetation Response to Rising CO₂ Impacts Extreme Temperatures

Projecting the CO2 and Climatic Change Effects on the Net Primary Productivity of the Urban Ecosystems in Phoenix, AZ in the 21st Century under Multiple RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) Scenarios

Climate change imposed limitations on potential food production

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Reduced CO2 fertilization effect in temperate C3 grasslands under more extreme weather conditions

Cited by 118 publications

References 31 publications

Vegetation Response to Rising CO2 Impacts Extreme Temperatures

Vegetation Response to Rising CO2 Impacts Extreme Temperatures

Projecting the CO2 and Climatic Change Effects on the Net Primary Productivity of the Urban Ecosystems in Phoenix, AZ in the 21st Century under Multiple RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) Scenarios

Climate change imposed limitations on potential food production

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Vegetation Response to Rising CO₂ Impacts Extreme Temperatures

Vegetation Response to Rising CO₂ Impacts Extreme Temperatures