Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Synthesising Earth system knowledge for probabilistic climate projections

Nicholls, Zebedee; Meinshausen, Malte; Lewis, Jared; Corradi, Maisa Rojas; Dorheim, Kalyn; Gasser, Thomas; Gieseke, Robert; Hope, Allen; Leach, Nicholas; McBride, L.; Quilcaille, Yann; Rogelj, Joeri; Salawitch, R. J.; Samset, B. H.; Sandstad, Marit; Shiklomanov, Alexey; Skeie, Ragnhild Bieltvedt; Smith, Christopher J.; Smith, Steve; Su, Xuanming; Tsutsui, Junichi; Vega-Westhoff, Benjamin Aaron; Woodard, D.

doi:10.1002/essoar.10504793.2

2021

DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10504793.2

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Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Synthesising Earth system knowledge for probabilistic climate projections

Zebedee Nicholls

Malte Meinshausen

Jared Lewis

et al.

Abstract: This a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary.

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Cited by 11 publications

References 30 publications

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Impact of methane and other precursor emission reductions on surface ozone in Europe: scenario analysis using the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) Meteorological Synthesizing Centre – West (MSC-W) model

van Caspel,

Klimont,

Heyes

et al. 2024

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

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Abstract. The impacts of future methane (CH4) and other precursor emission changes are investigated for surface ozone (O3) in the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) region excluding North America and Israel (the EMEP region, for European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme) for the year 2050. The analysis includes a current legislation (CLE) and maximum feasible technical reduction (MFR) scenario, as well as a scenario that combines MFRs with an additional dietary shift that also meets the Paris Agreement objectives with respect to greenhouse gas emissions (LOW). For each scenario, background CH4 concentrations are calculated using a probabilistic Earth system model emulator and combined with other precursor emissions in a three-dimensional Eulerian chemistry-transport model. While focus is placed on peak season maximum daily 8 h average (MDA8) O3 concentrations, a range of other indicators for health and vegetation impacts are also discussed. Our analysis shows that roughly one-third of the total peak season MDA8 reduction achieved between the 2050 CLE and MFR scenarios is attributable to CH4 reductions, resulting predominantly from CH4 emission reductions outside of the EMEP region. The impact of other precursor emission reductions is split nearly evenly between the reductions inside and outside of the EMEP region. However, the relative importance of CH4 and other precursor emission reductions is shown to depend on the choice of O3 indicator, though indicators sensitive to peak O3 show generally consistent results. The analysis also highlights the synergistic impacts of CH4 mitigation as reducing solely CH4 achieves, beyond air quality improvement, nearly two-thirds of the total global warming reduction calculated for the LOW scenario compared to the CLE case.

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Impact of methane and other precursor emission reductions on surface ozone in Europe: scenario analysis using the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) Meteorological Synthesizing Centre – West (MSC-W) model

van Caspel,

Klimont,

Heyes

et al. 2024

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

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Extending MESMER-X: a spatially resolved Earth system model emulator for fire weather and soil moisture

Quilcaille,

Gudmundsson,

Seneviratne

2023

Earth Syst. Dynam.

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Abstract. Climate emulators are models calibrated on Earth system models (ESMs) to replicate their behavior. Thanks to their low computational cost, these tools are becoming increasingly important to accelerate the exploration of emission scenarios and the coupling of climate information to other models. However, the emulation of regional climate extremes and water cycle variables has remained challenging. The MESMER emulator was recently expanded to represent regional temperature extremes in the new “MESMER-X” version, which is targeted at impact-related variables, including extremes. This paper presents a further expansion of MESMER-X to represent indices related to fire weather and soil moisture. Given a trajectory of global mean temperature, the extended emulator generates spatially resolved realizations for the seasonal average of the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), the number of days with extreme fire weather, the annual average of the soil moisture, and the annual minimum of the monthly average soil moisture. For each ESM, the emulations mimic the statistical distributions and the spatial patterns of these indicators. For each of the four variables considered, we evaluate the performances of the emulations by calculating how much their quantiles deviate from those of the ESMs. Given how it performs over a large range of annual indicators, we argue that this framework can be expanded to further variables. Overall, the now expanded MESMER-X emulator can emulate several climate variables, including climate extremes and soil moisture availability, and is a useful tool for the exploration of regional climate changes and their impacts.

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FaIRv2.0.0: a generalized impulse response model for climate uncertainty and future scenario exploration

et al. 2021

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Abstract. Here we present an update to the FaIR model for use in probabilistic future climate and scenario exploration, integrated assessment, policy analysis, and education. In this update we have focussed on identifying a minimum level of structural complexity in the model. The result is a set of six equations, five of which correspond to the standard impulse response model used for greenhouse gas (GHG) metric calculations in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report, plus one additional physically motivated equation to represent state-dependent feedbacks on the response timescales of each greenhouse gas cycle. This additional equation is necessary to reproduce non-linearities in the carbon cycle apparent in both Earth system models and observations. These six equations are transparent and sufficiently simple that the model is able to be ported into standard tabular data analysis packages, such as Excel, increasing the potential user base considerably. However, we demonstrate that the equations are flexible enough to be tuned to emulate the behaviour of several key processes within more complex models from CMIP6. The model is exceptionally quick to run, making it ideal for integrating large probabilistic ensembles. We apply a constraint based on the current estimates of the global warming trend to a million-member ensemble, using the constrained ensemble to make scenario-dependent projections and infer ranges for properties of the climate system. Through these analyses, we reaffirm that simple climate models (unlike more complex models) are not themselves intrinsically biased “hot” or “cold”: it is the choice of parameters and how those are selected that determines the model response, something that appears to have been misunderstood in the past. This updated FaIR model is able to reproduce the global climate system response to GHG and aerosol emissions with sufficient accuracy to be useful in a wide range of applications and therefore could be used as a lowest-common-denominator model to provide consistency in different contexts. The fact that FaIR can be written down in just six equations greatly aids transparency in such contexts.

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Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Synthesising Earth system knowledge for probabilistic climate projections

Abstract: This a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary.

Cited by 11 publications

References 30 publications

Impact of methane and other precursor emission reductions on surface ozone in Europe: scenario analysis using the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) Meteorological Synthesizing Centre – West (MSC-W) model

Impact of methane and other precursor emission reductions on surface ozone in Europe: scenario analysis using the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) Meteorological Synthesizing Centre – West (MSC-W) model

Extending MESMER-X: a spatially resolved Earth system model emulator for fire weather and soil moisture

FaIRv2.0.0: a generalized impulse response model for climate uncertainty and future scenario exploration

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