2021
DOI: 10.1134/s0965542521030155
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Reduced SIR Model of COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract: We propose a mathematical model of COVID-19 pandemic preserving an optimal balance between the adequate description of a pandemic by SIR model and simplicity of practical estimates. As base model equations, we derive two-parameter nonlinear first-order ordinary differential equations with retarded time argument, applicable to any community (country, city, etc.).The presented examples of modeling the pandemic development depending on two parameters: the time of possible dissemination of infection by one virus c… Show more

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Cited by 17 publications
(16 citation statements)
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“…The SIR model created by Kermack and McKendrick [1,2] is a representative compartment model for infectious diseases and is now commonly used even for COVID-19 [3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13]. The model consists of three compartments of 'Susceptible', 'Infected' and 'Removed' and is expressed by the following differential equations, which have not changed since Kermack and McKendrick [1]: dS(t)/dt= -βS(t) I(t)/N (1) dI(t)/dt=β S(t) I(t) / N -γ I(t) (2) dR(t)/dt=γ I(t) (3) where S(t) is the number of susceptible individuals who are not infected but could become infected, I(t) is the number of infected individuals who have been infected and are capable of infecting susceptible individuals, and R(t) is the number of removed individuals who have been removed from the community after they have been recovered from the disease after the infectious period (the recovery period) is ended or who have died.…”
Section: Contact Rate Between Infected and Susceptible In The Communi...mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The SIR model created by Kermack and McKendrick [1,2] is a representative compartment model for infectious diseases and is now commonly used even for COVID-19 [3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13]. The model consists of three compartments of 'Susceptible', 'Infected' and 'Removed' and is expressed by the following differential equations, which have not changed since Kermack and McKendrick [1]: dS(t)/dt= -βS(t) I(t)/N (1) dI(t)/dt=β S(t) I(t) / N -γ I(t) (2) dR(t)/dt=γ I(t) (3) where S(t) is the number of susceptible individuals who are not infected but could become infected, I(t) is the number of infected individuals who have been infected and are capable of infecting susceptible individuals, and R(t) is the number of removed individuals who have been removed from the community after they have been recovered from the disease after the infectious period (the recovery period) is ended or who have died.…”
Section: Contact Rate Between Infected and Susceptible In The Communi...mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The finite-difference equation for the number of infected people N ( t ) at time t in the reduced SIP model has the form [20] , [21] , [22] . where N max is the number of population, τ is the time of possible spreading the infection by a virus carrier, α ( t ) is the probability of infecting a healthy population member upon a contact with all population members per unit time (Δ t = 1 day).…”
Section: Multifractal Dynamics Of Basic Reproduction Numbermentioning
confidence: 99%
“…First, we calculate the fractal dimensions of the phase space of the COVID-19 pandemic and various segments of the daily incidence in the world according to the global COVID-19 statistics [16] , [17] . Second, we estimate the variations in the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 [18] using the equations of the discrete delay model [20] or the reduced Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model [21] , [22] to clarify short-term forecasts and identification of new trends in the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic [24] , [28] , developed within both the traditional and fundamentally new approaches and software tools [19] , [22] , [23] , [25] , [26] , [27] .…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The SIR model created by Kermack and McKendrick [1,2] is a representative compartment model for infectious diseases and is now commonly used even for COVID-19 [3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13]. The model consists of three compartments of 'Susceptible', 'Infected' and 'Removed' and is expressed by the following differential equations, which have not changed since Kermack and McKendrick [1]: dS(t)/dt= -βS(t) I(t)/N…”
Section: Contact Rate Between Infected and Susceptible In The Communitymentioning
confidence: 99%