Reducing the costs of meeting regional water demand through risk-based transfer agreements

Palmer, Reed N.; Characklis, Gregory W.

doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2008.11.003

Cited by 36 publications

(44 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…This work expands on the dynamic adaptive policy pathway framework proposed by Haasnoot et al [2013] to develop integrated water management portfolios that include new supply infrastructure, conservation, and water transfers in a multistakeholder environment. Adapting the risk-based rules used to govern interutility water transfers in previous work by Palmer and Characklis [2009], this study uses both long-term and short-term risk measures to serve as decision rules within the integrated water supply portfolio pathways. These metrics describe a utility's '''risk-of-failure,'' which is a function of storage conditions, demand, and the historical streamflow record (described in detail in section 2.1.3).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As an alternative, risk-based rules can be used to govern the implementation of adaptive strategies, such as in the design of transfer agreements [Characklis et al, 2006;Palmer and Characklis, 2009;Kasprzyk et al, 2009]. Instead of optimizing the exact timing of management actions, optimization occurs relative to the rules that govern those actions.…”

Section: /2016wr018771mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Cooperative drought adaptation: Integrating infrastructure development, conservation, and water transfers into adaptive policy pathways

Zeff

Herman

Reed

et al. 2016

Water Resources Research

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A considerable fraction of urban water supply capacity serves primarily as a hedge against drought. Water utilities can reduce their dependence on firm capacity and forestall the development of new supplies using short‐term drought management actions, such as conservation and transfers. Nevertheless, new supplies will often be needed, especially as demands rise due to population growth and economic development. Planning decisions regarding when and how to integrate new supply projects are fundamentally shaped by the way in which short‐term adaptive drought management strategies are employed. To date, the challenges posed by long‐term infrastructure sequencing and adaptive short‐term drought management are treated independently, neglecting important feedbacks between planning and management actions. This work contributes a risk‐based framework that uses continuously updating risk‐of‐failure (ROF) triggers to capture the feedbacks between short‐term drought management actions (e.g., conservation and water transfers) and the selection and sequencing of a set of regional supply infrastructure options over the long term. Probabilistic regional water supply pathways are discovered for four water utilities in the “Research Triangle” region of North Carolina. Furthermore, this study distinguishes the status‐quo planning path of independent action (encompassing utility‐specific conservation and new supply infrastructure only) from two cooperative formulations: “weak” cooperation, which combines utility‐specific conservation and infrastructure development with regional transfers, and “strong” cooperation, which also includes jointly developed regional infrastructure to support transfers. Results suggest that strong cooperation aids utilities in meeting their individual objectives at substantially lower costs and with less overall development. These benefits demonstrate how an adaptive, rule‐based decision framework can coordinate integrated solutions that would not be identified using more traditional optimization methods.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: /2016wr018771mentioning

confidence: 99%

Cooperative drought adaptation: Integrating infrastructure development, conservation, and water transfers into adaptive policy pathways

Zeff

Herman

Reed

et al. 2016

Water Resources Research

Self Cite

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“…In previous years, the Southeast U.S. region has experienced multiple droughts (1986-1988, 1998-2002, 2007-2008, 2016) (Weaver 2005;Keellings and Engstr€ om 2019), increasing the vulnerability of the region to water deficits. Falls Lake supplies drinking water to Wake County, where Raleigh is located, and upstream lakes (Little River reservoir and Lake Michie) supply drinking water to Durham County (Palmer and Characklis 2009;Li et al 2014). Falls Lake supplies drinking water to Wake County, where Raleigh is located, and upstream lakes (Little River reservoir and Lake Michie) supply drinking water to Durham County (Palmer and Characklis 2009;Li et al 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Falls Lake supplies drinking water to Wake County, where Raleigh is located, and upstream lakes (Little River reservoir and Lake Michie) supply drinking water to Durham County (Palmer and Characklis 2009;Li et al 2014). Some studies addressed the water deficit problem in the RTP region by exploring inter-basin transfer (e.g., Palmer and Characklis 2009;Li et al 2014). While they made use of a General Circulation Model (GCM), Marion et al did not use a locally calibrated watershed model forced with downscaled GCM outputs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Upper Neuse Watershed includes the public water supplies for most of Wake and Durham counties. Falls Lake supplies drinking water to Wake County, where Raleigh is located, and upstream lakes (Little River reservoir and Lake Michie) supply drinking water to Durham County (Palmer and Characklis 2009;Li et al 2014). Prior research suggests that the Upper Neuse Watershed will experience a 14% decrease in water supply due to climate change and will experience a 21% increase in water demand due to industrialization and growth (Marion et al 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Estimating Potential Climate Change Effects on the Upper Neuse Watershed Water Balance Using the SWAT Model

Ercan¹,

Maghami

Bowes

et al. 2019

J American Water Resour Assoc

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Research Impact Statement: The results of this study can aid planning for the RTP's future hydrologic and water supply conditions and expand the knowledge of local impacts of climate change on critical watersheds.ABSTRACT: Climate change poses water resource challenges for many already water stressed watersheds throughout the world. One such watershed is the Upper Neuse Watershed in North Carolina, which serves as a water source for the large and growing Research Triangle Park region. The aim of this study was to quantify possible changes in the watershed's water balance due to climate change. To do this, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model forced with different climate scenarios for baseline, mid-century, and end-century time periods using five different downscaled General Circulation Models. Before running these scenarios, the SWAT model was calibrated and validated using daily streamflow records within the watershed. The study results suggest that, even under a mitigation scenario, precipitation will increase by 7.7% from the baseline to mid-century time period and by 9.8% between the baseline and end-century time period. Over the same periods, evapotranspiration (ET) would decrease by 5.5 and 7.6%, water yield would increase by 25.1% and 33.2%, and soil water would increase by 1.4% and 1.9%. Perhaps most importantly, the model results show, under a high emission scenario, large seasonal differences with ET estimated to decrease by up to 42% and water yield to increase by up to 157% in late summer and fall. Planning for the wetter predicted future and corresponding seasonal changes will be critical for mitigating the impacts of climate change on water resources.(

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Navigating financial and supply reliability tradeoffs in regional drought management portfolios

Zeff

Kasprzyk

Herman

et al. 2014

Water Resources Research

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104

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Rising development costs and growing concerns over environmental impacts have led many communities to explore more diversified water management strategies. These ''portfolio''-style approaches integrate existing supply infrastructure with other options such as conservation measures or water transfers. Diversified water supply portfolios have been shown to reduce the capacity and costs required to meet demand, while also providing greater adaptability to changing hydrologic conditions. However, this additional flexibility can also cause unexpected reductions in revenue (from conservation) or increased costs (from transfers). The resulting financial instability can act as a substantial disincentive to utilities seeking to implement more innovative water management techniques. This study seeks to design portfolios that employ financial tools (e.g., contingency funds and index insurance) to reduce fluctuations in revenues and costs, allowing these strategies to achieve improved performance without sacrificing financial stability. This analysis is applied to the development of coordinated regional supply portfolios in the ''Research Triangle'' region of North Carolina, an area comprising four rapidly growing municipalities. The actions of each independent utility become interconnected when shared infrastructure is utilized to enable interutility transfers, requiring the evaluation of regional tradeoffs in up to five performance and financial objectives. Diversified strategies introduce significant tradeoffs between achieving reliability goals and introducing burdensome variability in annual revenues and/or costs. Financial mitigation tools can mitigate the impacts of this variability, allowing for an alternative suite of improved solutions. This analysis provides a general template for utilities seeking to navigate the tradeoffs associated with more flexible, portfolio-style management approaches.

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Reducing the costs of meeting regional water demand through risk-based transfer agreements

Cited by 36 publications

References 24 publications

Cooperative drought adaptation: Integrating infrastructure development, conservation, and water transfers into adaptive policy pathways

Cooperative drought adaptation: Integrating infrastructure development, conservation, and water transfers into adaptive policy pathways

Estimating Potential Climate Change Effects on the Upper Neuse Watershed Water Balance Using the SWAT Model

Navigating financial and supply reliability tradeoffs in regional drought management portfolios

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