Reducing uncertainty in climate change responses of inland fishes: A decision‐path approach

Abstract

Climate change will continue to be an important consideration for conservation practitioners. However, uncertainty in identifying appropriate management strategies, particularly for understudied species and regions, constrains the implementation of science‐based solutions and adaptation strategies. Here, we share a decision‐path approach to reduce uncertainty in climate change responses of inland fishes to inform conservation and adaptation planning. With the Fish and Climate Change database (FiCli), a comprehensive, online, public database of peer‐reviewed literature on documented and projected climate impacts to inland fishes, users can identify relevant studies and associated management recommendations via geographic regions, response types (i.e., fish assemblage dynamics, demographic, distributional, evolutionary, phenological), fish taxa, and traits (e.g., thermal guilds, feeding type, parental care, habitat type) and use a suite of summary tools to make more informed decisions. For both data‐rich and data‐poor scenarios, we demonstrate that this approach can reduce uncertainty in understanding climate change responses. Using thermal sensitivity as an example, we also establish the utility of FiCli database to address other user‐defined, management‐relevant questions via supplementary analyses. This decision‐path approach can be applied to rapid assessments, management decisions, and policy development and may serve as a model for other conservation decision‐making processes.

Observed and projected functional reorganization of riverine fish assemblages from global change

“…In contrast, taxa that may be disproportionately sensitive to global change preferred cooler temperatures, coarse, clean spawning substrates, and faster flow velocities. These findings are well supported by literature as traits that predispose freshwater taxa to negative global change impacts in many instances (Comte et al, 2013; Heino et al, 2009; Lynch et al, 2022; Rosset & Oertli, 2011). These traits also characterize many functionally unique montane fishes (Colvin et al, 2019; Freeman et al, 2007), prominently, salmonids that provide many ecosystem services (Watz et al, 2022) and are particularly at risk of global change‐induced range contractions (Chu et al, 2005; Lynch et al, 2022; Sharma et al, 2007).…”

Evaluating effectiveness of restoration to address current stressors to riverine fish

“…In the future, the ability to plan for and address the climate change implications of restoration are likely to increase with the availability of more comprehensive information documenting climate effects (e.g., Krabbenhoft et al., 2020). Many opportunities exist to integrate climate uncertainty (Lynch et al., 2022) and build resilience into restoration projects. For example, barrier removal can increase dispersal pathways to climate refuges and help fish track stream temperature suitability (Radinger et al., 2018).…”

“…Many opportunities exist to integrate climate uncertainty (Lynch et al, 2022) and build resilience into restoration projects. For example, barrier removal can increase dispersal pathways to climate refuges and help fish track stream temperature suitability (Radinger et al, 2018).…”

Fisheries Volume 48 Number 11 November 2023

“…The team has conducted subsequent analyses and published on this comprehensive dataset, including a global synthesis of climate change ' s documented and projected impacts on fi sh (Myers et al 2017 ) and a decisionpath approach for reducing uncertainty in species ' responses. (Lynch et al 2022 ).…”