Reducing Wallacean shortfalls for the coralsnakes of the Micrurus lemniscatus species complex: Present and future distributions under a changing climate

Abstract

South American coralsnakes are characterized by inconspicuous and poorly known species, which are potentially very sensitive to climate change. Here, we assess the impact of future climate change on the distributions of the Micrurus lemniscatus species complex after addressing the Wallacean shortfalls and refining the knowledge about their current geographic distributions. We also evaluate the efficiency of the current reserve network to protect the species in the present and future. We applied ecological niche model tools through a carefully examined set of occurrence records to generate potential present distributions and to project these distributions into future scenarios of climate change. Specific thresholds based on occurrence records along with expert opinions were used to delineate the geographic distribution of each species. A hierarchical ANOVA was applied to evaluate the uncertainties in species distributions across niche modeling methods and climate models and nested into the time factor (present and future). Multiple regression models were used to infer the relative importance of the climatic variables to determine the species’ suitability. A gap analysis was performed to address the representativeness of species distributions into protected areas. Predicted geographic distributions were compatible with the known distributions and the expert opinions, except for M. l. carvalhoi. New areas for field research were identified. Variation in precipitation was the most important factor defining the habitat suitability for all species, except for M. diutius. All taxa (except M. l. lemniscatus) will shrink their distributions in the future; less than 50% of the present suitable areas are protected in reserve networks, and less than 40% of these areas will be held in reserves in the future. We found strong evidence that coralsnakes may be highly sensitive to the ongoing changes and must be protected.

Challenges and Opportunities for Terrapene carolina carolina Under Different Climate Scenarios

“…For example, the most influential variable for D. caspius was mean temperature of coldest quarter [6]; for Pseudopus apodus it was temperature seasonality and annual precipitation [86]. For several coral snake species, they were most affected by annual mean temperature, precipitation of wettest month, and precipitation of warmest quarter [87]. Since each study used a different set of bioclimatic factors, it is difficult to effectively compare variable importance.…”

Addressing the global snakebite crisis with geo-spatial analyses – Recent advances and future direction

“…Reliable ENMs can often be created with reasonably small data sets (20–50 occurrence records; Stockwell and Peterson, 2002 ) and for large batches of species using high-performance computing infrastructure ( Pintor et al, 2018 , 2019 ). ENMs can help delineate boundaries of suitable habitat around known occurrences objectively, detect habitat patches that are suitable but unsampled ( Terribile et al, 2018 ; Yousefi et al, 2015 ), determine the degree of habitat connectivity, describe the likelihood of snake encounters as opposed to simple presence or absence ( Yañez-Arenas et al, 2018 ), and generally increase the resolution of distribution maps. In essence they enable description of the area of occupancy (actually occupied habitat patches) within a snakes' extent of occurrence (approximate outline encompassing all occurrences; IUCN, 2020 ).…”

“…ENMs have already been used to predict distributions of venomous species for studies on biogeography, phylogeography, or conservation ( Asadi et al, 2019 ; Barlow et al, 2013 ; Brito et al, 2008 ; Burbrink and Guiher, 2015 ; Di Cola and Chiaraviglio, 2011 ; Gül; Terribile et al, 2018 ; Yousefi et al, 2015 ), and to estimate human risk of exposure to snakebite ( Bravo-Vega et al, 2019 ; Nori et al, 2014 ; Saupe et al, 2011 ; Yañez-Arenas et al, 2018 ; Yañez-Arenas et al, 2014 ; Yañez-Arenas et al, 2016 ; Yousefi et al, 2020 ; Zacarias and Loyola, 2019 , Table 1 ). The most commonly used ENM method amongst the set of studies in Table 1 , and probably amongst ENM literature in general, is Maxent.…”

“…Many snakes are International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) listed ( IUCN, 2020 ): out of those listed by WHO, three are considered critically endangered, nine endangered, 19 vulnerable, seven near threatened, 11 data deficient, and 85 have not been assessed. This does not yet include any species only listed under groupings such as ‘ Micrurus species’, which have been suggested to be particularly vulnerable to climate change ( Terribile et al, 2018 ) and achieving conservation goals can be difficult for organisms involved in human-wildlife conflicts ( Madden, 2004 ).…”

“…For range-restricted species and those associated with very specific habitats (e.g. mountain tops or specific vegetation; Behrooz et al, 2015 ; Freeman et al, 2018 ), climate change may pose a higher risk because limited dispersal ability and habitat fragmentations may hinder shifts in response to these changes ( Terribile et al, 2018 ; Vasudev et al, 2015 ; Yousefi et al, 2015 ). Considering the concentration of range-restricted species within many taxa in the tropics ( Pintor et al, 2015 ; Stevens, 1989 ), the threat of climate change to snake species and the threat of snakes to humans coincide in similar areas, i.e.…”