Reduction in the potential distribution of bumble bees (Apidae:Bombus) in Mesoamerica under different climate change scenarios: Conservation implications

Abstract

Bumble bees are an ecologically and economically important group of pollinating insects worldwide. Global climate change is predicted to affect bumble bee ecology including habitat suitability and geographic distribution. Our study aims to estimate the impact of projected climate change on 18 Mesoamerican bumble bee species. We used ecological niche modeling (ENM) using current and future climate emissions scenarios (representative concentration pathway 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) and models (CCSM4, HadGEM2‐AO, and MIROC‐ESM‐CHEM). Regardless of the scenario and model applied, our results suggest that all bumble bee species are predicted to undergo a reduction in their potential distribution and habitat suitability due to projected climate change. ENMs based on low emission scenarios predict a distribution loss ranging from 7% to 67% depending on the species for the year 2050. Furthermore, we discovered that the reduction of bumble bee geographic range shape will be more evident at the margins of their distribution. The reduction of suitable habitat is predicted to be accompanied by a 100–500 m upslope change in altitude and 1–581 km shift away from the current geographic centroid of a species' distribution. On average, protected natural areas in Mesoamerica cover ~14% of each species' current potential distribution, and this proportion is predicted to increase to ~23% in the high emission climate change scenarios. Our models predict that climate change will reduce Mesoamerican bumble bee habitat suitability, especially for rare species, by reducing their potential distribution ranges and suitability. The small proportion of current and future potential distribution falling in protected natural areas suggests that such areas will likely have marginal contribution to bumble bee habitat conservation. Our results have the capacity to inform stakeholders in designing effective landscape management for bumble bees, which may include developing restoration plans for montane pine oak forests habitats and native flowering plants.

Siberian Ibex Capra sibirica Respond to Climate Change by Shifting to Higher Latitudes in Eastern Pamir

“…Much wildlife has shifted its geographic distribution toward higher elevations or latitudes [5,67,[77][78][79], and Chen et al's (2011) meta-analysis showed that the distribution of many species has recently shifted to higher elevations at a median rate of 11.0 m per decade [9]. Interestingly, we have not found such a shift to higher elevations, i.e., the distribution of Siberian ibex at different elevations remained unchanged under future climate scenarios.…”

Declining honey production and beekeeper adaptation to climate change in Chile

“…In recent years, studies in Chile have related climate variability to responses among pollinators and to the vigor and growth of woody species in native shrublands and forests (Fig. S1 available online as Supplemental Material;Fontúbel et al, 2018;Venegas-González et al, 2019;(Miranda et al, 2020), and similar trends were documented in productive systems elsewhere (Martínez-López et al, 2021;Phillips et al, 2018). In Chile, these studies have documented the effects of the recent megadrought, one of the most severe and prolonged droughts in Chile in the last millennium (Garreaud et al, 2020).…”

“…Changes in the number of beekeepers and hives may mask the effects of climate on honey production in many countries. Recently, Martínez-López et al (2021) documented a reduction in the bumblebee distribution in Mesoamerica related to climate change. Such warming trends particularly threaten specialist species and those with restricted distributions.…”

High thermal tolerance in high‐elevation species and laboratory‐reared colonies of tropical bumble bees

“…However, bumble bees are also among the few bees with documented significant changes in population vigor and geographical range shifts due to various anthropogenic factors, including climate change (Bommarco et al, 2012; Cameron et al, 2011; Colla & Packer, 2008; Martins & Melo, 2010; Soroye et al, 2020; Williams & Jepsen, 2014). In addition, studies under climate change scenarios using niche modeling approaches suggest significant reductions (up to 78%) in bumble bees' climatically suitable areas across North and South America, Europe, and East Asia (da Silva Krechemer & Marchioro, 2020; Françoso et al, 2019; Martínez‐López et al, 2021; Naeem et al, 2019). Furthermore, species richness of bumble bees is also expected to be reduced by changes in climatic conditions (Sirois‐Delisle & Kerr, 2018; Soroye et al, 2020).…”