Reduction of uncertainties in exposure assessment based on environmental monitoring data

Bleher, M.; Gering, F.; Stöhlker, U.; Karhunen, Tero; Nalbandyan-Schwarz, A G; Woda, Clemens; Mafodda, A.

doi:10.1051/radiopro/2020016

Cited by 5 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 9 publications

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“…Uncertainty tends to be greatest during the pre-release phase, in part because measurements are not yet available. This is in contrast to the post-release phase, when measurements can be used to reduce model uncertainty (Lahtinen et al, 2010;Bleher et al, 2020). Mathieu et al (2018) presented guidelines ranking uncertainties for atmospheric dispersion modelling.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Operationalising an ensemble approach in the description of uncertainty in atmospheric dispersion modelling and an emergency response

et al. 2020

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Uncertainties were propagated through the chain of atmospheric dispersion and radiological assessment models based on an ensemble approach for a range of scenarios. It was apparent that the time taken to complete model runs, ranging from several hours to a few tens of hours, was not appropriate for an emergency response. Thus, for an operational method, there was a requirement to reduce the number of ensemble members and/or reduce model run time for a single ensemble member, such that a measure of uncertainty may be obtained within the timeframe of one hour, but without significant detriment to the model endpoints derived, the uncertainty estimated and the radiation protection advice inferred. This study proposes recommendations for operationalising an ensemble approach used in the description of uncertainty in atmospheric dispersion modelling and an emergency response.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Operationalising an ensemble approach in the description of uncertainty in atmospheric dispersion modelling and an emergency response

et al. 2020

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Spectro-dosemeter-based gamma dose rate network in Germany

Stöhlker

Bleher

Mlinarzik

et al. 2022

Applied Radiation and Isotopes

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Editorial: the main results of the European CONFIDENCE project

Raskob

Duranova

2020

Radioprotection

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In nuclear emergency management and long-term rehabilitation, dealing with uncertain information on the current situation, or predicted evolution of the situation, is an intrinsic problem for decision making. Uncertain information related to, for instance, incomplete information on the source term and the prevailing weather can result in dose assessments that differ dramatically from reality. Uncertainty is also an intrinsic part of model parameters. In the presence of uncertainty, ineffective decisions are often taken (e.g. too conservative or optimistic predictions, inadequately accounting of non-radiological risks), which may result in more overall harm than good due to secondary causalities as observed following the Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents. Therefore, the reduction of uncertainty, and how to deal with uncertain information, is essential to improve decision making for the protection of the affected population and to minimise disruption of normal living conditions.Decisions on early countermeasures (e.g. evacuation, sheltering, and provision of iodine tablets) are often taken based on deterministic calculations considering the best available source term information and the state of the art numerical weather prediction data as inputs. The source term uncertainty is large and quantification difficult. Uncertainty in meteorological forecasts is routinely quantified by "ensemble predictions". However, these predictions are not used in emergency management. One reason for this is the effort and time required to process 30 to 100 different weather sequences within atmospheric dispersion models.At present, decision making in the early phase is mainly based on modelling followed by a period where monitoring has made enough progress to provide a robust contamination and dose map. However, in between some monitoring data will be available; however, no operational tool exists to combine simulated dose estimations with monitoring data to obtain a more consolidated picture of the radiological situation.The key endpoint for all decision making is the dose and associated risk to affected population groups. However, in the case of the Fukushima accident, only order-of-magnitude dose bands were estimated from (local) contamination and model predictions, with no accounting for individual human behaviour patterns or location. Individual dose measurements could greatly reduce this uncertainty but are limited by capacity.Completely missing from emergency management is the assessments of risk in the early and the transition phases. However, this is important for decision making on the need for medical surveys and long-term support of the affected population.Operational decisions concerning land and food chain management rely on radioecological models that are mostly based on simple, but highly uncertain, transfer ratios to predict contamination in foodstuffs (though such data are few for some climatic areas, (e.g. Mediterranean) and foodstuff-radionuclide combinations). Process-based models might provide an approach to red...

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Reduction of uncertainties in exposure assessment based on environmental monitoring data

Cited by 5 publications

References 9 publications

Operationalising an ensemble approach in the description of uncertainty in atmospheric dispersion modelling and an emergency response

Operationalising an ensemble approach in the description of uncertainty in atmospheric dispersion modelling and an emergency response

Spectro-dosemeter-based gamma dose rate network in Germany

Editorial: the main results of the European CONFIDENCE project

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