Reel döviz kuru ve turizm geliri ilişkisi: Yapısal kırılmalı VAR analizi

Abstract

The relationship between exchange rates and tourism arises because the travel cost become cheaper (expensive) due to the depreciation (appreciation) of the home currency. It is known that exchange rate plays an important role in terms of tourists calculating travel costs. The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between real exchange rate and tourism receipts for Turkey. To achieve this purpose, 2012-2019 period has been examined by using monthly data. Since the study aimed to concentrate on the structural breaks observed in the time series, unit root tests which consider the structural break are used for the stationary analysis phase. Two different dummy variables for series are defined for the VAR model. As a result, instead of a standard VAR model, a structural VAR model is estimated with Generalized Least Squares method. Based on the findings, it is concluded that impulse-response values of exchange rate and tourism receipts variables for the specified period in Turkey is negligible. Variance decomposition results support this situation. Accordingly, it is concluded that the tourism receipts and exchange rate variables do not have a remarkable effect on each other for the period studied.

Interrelationships between Tourist Arrivals, Exchange Rate, Inflation, and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence for Türkiye

“…In summary, findings indicate the absence of tourist arrivals' Dutch disease effect because of the favorable short-and long-run impacts on economic growth and the absence of any causal relationships between exchange rate and tourist arrivals. This finding contradicts the finding of Kerim (2020Kerim ( ), S ¸en & S ¸it (2015, Aykaç Alp (2010), and Bingöl et al (2020), whereas it is supported by Aktaş (2005), Bulut & S ¸ahan (2020), Akar &Özcan (2021), andAkboz& Canatan (2021).…”