Reexamining the Effect of Refugees on Civil Conflict: A Global Subnational Analysis

Abstract

A large literature suggests that the presence of refugees is associated with greater risk of conflict. We argue that the positive effects of hosting refugees on local conditions have been overlooked. Using global data from 1990 to 2018 on locations of refugee communities and civil conflict at the subnational level, we find no evidence that hosting refugees increases the likelihood of new conflict, prolongs existing conflict, or raises the number of violent events or casualties. Furthermore, we explore conditions where provinces are likely to experience substantively large decreases in conflict risk due to increased development. Analysis examining nighttime lights as a measure of development, coupled with expert interviews, support our claim. To address the possibility of selection bias, we use placebo tests and matching. Our research challenges assertions that refugees are security risks. Instead, we show that in many cases, hosting refugees can encourage local development and even conflict reduction.

The Geography of Displacement, Refugees' Camps and Social Conflicts

“…We employ a comprehensive measure of protests that includes small-scale communal violence and tensions as well as more dramatic tensions that generates casualties. We also provide evidence, as in other studies (Fisk 2019;Zhou and Shaver 2021), on organized violence events that result in at least 1 death.…”

“…In particular, refugee flows increasing their index of ethnic polarization exacerbate the risk of conflict while, on the opposite, refugee flows causing an increase in the ethnic fractionalization are associated to a decrease in the likelihood of conflicts. Working on global data for the period 1990-218, Zhou and Shaver (2021) find no evidence that hosting refugees increases the likelihood of new conflict, neither the duration of existing conflicts, nor the number of violent events or casualties.…”

“…Adopting Diff-in-Diff estimates, show that proximity to refugee settlements in Uganda has positive externalities on host communities while host attitudes towards migrants or migration policy are not affected. Fisk (2019), Bertinelli et al (2021) and Zhou and Shaver (2021) are among the few multi-country studies focusing on the effects of camp settlements on conflicts. Fisk ( 2019) employs sub-national data for 39 Sub-Saharan Countries in the period 2000-2010 and shows that the number of non-state conflicts 11 significantly increases in regions in which refugees' camps are settled.…”

“…The present paper is also related to those contributions -mostly in political science and in migration and refugee' studies -that have focused on the role of forced displacement as a determinant of conflicts in host countries (Fisk 2014a;Fisk 2018;Duncan 2005;Jacobsen 1997;Zhou and Shaver 2021). These contributions have emphasized several channels through which refugees -both in selfsettlements and in camps -might generate tensions in the host-communities: competition over scarce resources, environmental pressures, labor-market competition, trust and security issues.…”

Inclusive Refugee-Hosting in Uganda Improves Local Development and Prevents Public Backlash

“…It is also possible that ACLED underreports violent incidences that are not reported by the media. Recent scholarship on the relationship between refugees and violent conflict finds that hosting generally has null effects on conflict (Zhou and Shaver, 2021); when conflicts do occur, refugees tend to be the victims (Savun and Gineste, 2019). Nevertheless, by 2020, like with Afrobarometer respondents reporting feeling more safe, these fears of crime reverse with a negative effect of -0.13 sd.…”