Reflecting on the Science of Climate Tipping Points to Inform and Assist Policy Making and Address the Risks they Pose to Society

Stocker, T. F.; Jones, R. G.; Hegglin, M. I.; Lenton, T. M.; Hegerl, G. C.; Seneviratne, S. I.; van der Wel, N.; Wood, R. A.

doi:10.1007/s10712-024-09844-w

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 128 publications

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“…The design of the next modeling exercise (CMIP7 and beyond) is an opportunity to go further to explore the potential for breaching tipping points within the coupled Earth system using more complete models. An assessment and critical review of climate risk, large-scale cascading events, tipping and irreversibility is needed (e.g., Stocker et al, 2024).…”

Section: Characterizing High-impact Low-likelihood (Hill) Risksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertain Pathways to a Future Safe Climate

Sherwood,

Hegerl,

Braconnot

et al. 2024

Earth's Future

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Global climate change is often thought of as a steady and approximately predictable physical response to increasing forcings, which then requires commensurate adaptation. But adaptation has practical, cultural and biological limits, and climate change may pose unanticipated global hazards, sudden changes or other surprises–as may societal adaptation and mitigation responses. These poorly known factors could substantially affect the urgency of mitigation as well as adaptation decisions. We outline a strategy for better accommodating these challenges by making climate science more integrative, in order to identify and quantify known and novel physical risks including those arising from interactions with ecosystems and society. We need to do this even–or especially–when they are highly uncertain, and to explore risks and opportunities associated with mitigation and adaptation responses by engaging across disciplines. We argue that upcoming climate assessments need to be more risk‐aware, and suggest ways of achieving this. These strategies improve the chances of anticipating potential surprises and identifying and communicating “safe landing” pathways that meet UN Sustainable Development Goals and guide humanity toward a better future.

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Section: Characterizing High-impact Low-likelihood (Hill) Risksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertain Pathways to a Future Safe Climate

Sherwood,

Hegerl,

Braconnot

et al. 2024

Earth's Future

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Opportunities for Earth Observation to Inform Risk Management for Ocean Tipping Points

Wood,

Baker,

Beaugrand

et al. 2024

Surv Geophys

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As climate change continues, the likelihood of passing critical thresholds or tipping points increases. Hence, there is a need to advance the science for detecting such thresholds. In this paper, we assess the needs and opportunities for Earth Observation (EO, here understood to refer to satellite observations) to inform society in responding to the risks associated with ten potential large-scale ocean tipping elements: Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation; Atlantic Subpolar Gyre; Beaufort Gyre; Arctic halocline; Kuroshio Large Meander; deoxygenation; phytoplankton; zooplankton; higher level ecosystems (including fisheries); and marine biodiversity. We review current scientific understanding and identify specific EO and related modelling needs for each of these tipping elements. We draw out some generic points that apply across several of the elements. These common points include the importance of maintaining long-term, consistent time series; the need to combine EO data consistently with in situ data types (including subsurface), for example through data assimilation; and the need to reduce or work with current mismatches in resolution (in both directions) between climate models and EO datasets. Our analysis shows that developing EO, modelling and prediction systems together, with understanding of the strengths and limitations of each, provides many promising paths towards monitoring and early warning systems for tipping, and towards the development of the next generation of climate models.

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Two decades of climate tipping points research: Progress and outlook

Armstrong McKay

2024

Dialogues on Climate Change

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The potential for nonlinear ‘surprises’ in the climate system has been recognised since the 1960s. One such nonlinearity is a tipping point: when change in a system becomes self-sustaining once forced passed a threshold, triggering a state shift that is often abrupt and irreversible. Research on climate tipping points has flourished since 2005, recently culminating in the release of the Global Tipping Points Report at COP28 and calls for targeted assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here I summarise progress in our growing understanding of climate tipping points and reflect on their implications for climate action and the outlook for future research.

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Reflecting on the Science of Climate Tipping Points to Inform and Assist Policy Making and Address the Risks they Pose to Society

Cited by 3 publications

References 128 publications

Uncertain Pathways to a Future Safe Climate

Uncertain Pathways to a Future Safe Climate

Opportunities for Earth Observation to Inform Risk Management for Ocean Tipping Points

Two decades of climate tipping points research: Progress and outlook

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