“…There is now extensive literature analysing and modelling the extent to which traffic flows systematically vary within a day, due to time-of-day variations in demand, time-of-day variations in capacity (e.g. due to traffic signals), and the temporal and spatial interactions of congestion (Ukkusuri et al, 2012, Du et al, 2015, Han et al, 2015, Long et al, 2016, Ngoduy et al, 2016, Wang and Du, 2016 A corresponding body of work has additionally sought to address the considerable variation observed in traffic flows between days, known as day-to-day variability (Watling and Cantarella, 2013a, Watling and Cantarella, 2013b, Guo et al, 2015, Hazelton and Parry, 2015, Kumar and Peeta, 2015, Xiao et al, 2016. This twin focus, on within-day and day-to-day variation, is the topic of the present paper.…”