Regime Security in Jordan Revisited: New Challenges to the Monarchy’s Resilience After the Arab Spring

Abstract

Jordan is one of the few authoritarian Arab regimes that survived region-wide mass protests during the Arab Spring, although the monarchy lacked enough force or resources to neutralize the dissident. This study analyzes the source of the resiliency of the Hashemite monarchy during 2011–2020 concerning regime security. The retreat of the Jordanian democratization movements in the early phase of the Arab Spring was the consequence of the opposition’s failure to achieve coordination and alignment, particularly the internal struggle of the Muslim Brotherhood regarding how to respond and its successful co-optation by the government. The scope of regime security in Jordan experienced a dramatic shift from appeasement to coercion around 2014 because of the eroding social order in neighboring states, represented by the influx of Syrian refugees into Jordan and the rise of the Islamic State in Iraq. Actions for securitization against Islamists, namely increased policing and tighter border control, were arranged through coercion and securing mass support in tandem. Jordan’s experience illustrates how this typically “weak state” secured its survival in this unprecedented, rapidly changing security situation.

The determinants of Jordan's stability case study: The arab spring (2011–2019) and the COVID-19 pandemic

“…Their main demand is to apply democratic reforms in Jordan. By initiating this movement, “they generated major change in their communities, especially tribal state relations … This changing dynamic of tribal politics holds enormous implications for politics and stability within the Hashemite Kingdom” ( Yom, 2014 : 228).…”

“…Tribal–king relations have been sustained since the colonial era. They had to be sustained against the colonists in order to survive ( Yom, 2014 ). The structure of Jordanian society is different.…”

“…The structure of Jordanian society is different. At the top of society sat the Hashemite King, “sheikh al-mashayikh,” while the Jordanian tribes were beneath him, where their bond was based on “unquestioned obedience and sacrifice for the monarch” ( Yom, 2014 ). Various historical events shaped Jordan's identity and emphasized the divides between East Bankers (trans-Jordanians) and West Bankers (Palestinians).…”

“…The problem started in 1960 when the Palestinian-Jordanians became the majority defined as outsiders given their “outsider status” ( Yom, 2014 ). The Jordanian government made use of the “Tribal affiliation to East Banker identity” ( Brand, 1995 : 48).…”

“…There are three outputs that securitization theory seeks; namely, adding security character to a public problem, creating new policies, and social collective social approval and commitment ( Balzacq et al, 2016 ). For instance, “the scope of regime security in Jordan experienced a dramatic shift from appeasement to coercion around 2014 because of the eroding social order in neighboring states” (Kikkawa, 2021 : 290). In fact, securitization theory is well-equipped for articulating the security aspects of new transnational or global challenges like environmental degradation, diseases, or migration, as well as comprehending the political implications—i.e.…”