Regime shift of the South China Sea SST in the late 1990s

Thompson, Bijoy; Tkalich, Pavel; Malanotte‐Rizzoli, Paola

doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3178-4

Cited by 20 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…As a result of the much faster warming rate, MHWs have longer durations and are more frequent with greater extension and intensity in the marginal seas of China (Yao et al 2020). Thompson et al (2017) observed a remarkable warming trend in the South China Sea (SCS) since 1997, and SCS MHWs might occur more frequently under global warming (Yao et al 2020). Xiao et al (2020) reported that a record-breaking SCS MHW event in 2015 caused severe coral bleaching on the Dongsha Atoll.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Diversity of Marine Heatwaves in the South China Sea Regulated by ENSO Phase

Zhu

Liu

2022

Journal of Climate

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Marine heatwaves (MHWs) in the South China Sea (SCS) have dramatic impacts on local ecosystems, fisheries, and aquacultures. Our results show that SCS MHWs were strongly regulated by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with a distinct life cycle during 1982–2018. Based on the ENSO-associated sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) warming peaks in the SCS, we can classify SCS MHWs into three categories, namely, El Niño-P1 during the first warming peak of El Niño from September to the following February, El Niño-P2 during the second warming peak of El Niño from the following June to September, and La Niña-P1 during the single warming peak of La Niña from the following February to May. The three types of SCS MHWs are all affected by the lower-level enhanced anticyclone over the western North Pacific (WNP), but their physical mechanisms are quite different. In El Niño-P1, SCS MHWs are mostly induced by enhanced net downward shortwave radiation and reduced latent heat flux loss over the southwestern and northern SCS, respectively. In El Niño-P2, SCS MHWs are primarily attributed to weaker entrainment cooling caused by a local enhanced anticyclone and stronger Ekman downwelling in the central-northern SCS. However, in La Niña-P1, SCS MHWs are mainly contributed by the reduced latent heat loss due to the weaker WNP anticyclone centered east of the Philippines on the pentad timescale. The distinct spatial distributions of MHWs show phase locking with ENSO-associated SCS SSTA warming, which provides a potential seasonal forecast of SCS MHWs according to the ENSO phase.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Diversity of Marine Heatwaves in the South China Sea Regulated by ENSO Phase

Zhu

Liu

2022

Journal of Climate

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“…Neither WNSI nor multiple linear regression of wind stress anomalies representing the local forcing agree well with the winter NEAMS-mean sea levels from 1997 to 1999, when conventional or eastern Pacific-type El Niño (1997)(1998) and La Niña (1998-2000) events occurred, implying certain roles of remote forcing via atmospheric teleconnections in changing the NEAMS sea level during those years potentially relevant to decadal oscillations linked to the NPGO (Figures 7 and 9). This is particularly true considering the footprint of the El Niño Southern Oscillation or regime shift on the YECS during a couple of (but not all) decades [44,45], thereby, suggesting the use of multiple linear regression analyses of local atmospheric pressure anomalies (WNSI) and climate indices (NPGO) for achieving better prediction.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interannual Variability of Winter Sea Levels Induced by Local Wind Stress in the Northeast Asian Marginal Seas: 1993–2017

Han

Nam

Cho

et al. 2020

JMSE

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The interannual variability of winter sea levels averaged over the northeast Asian marginal seas, consisting of the Yellow Sea, East China Sea, and the East Sea (ES), was investigated. The spatial-mean sea level in winter observed using satellite altimetry shows significant interannual variations with a long-term rising trend of 3.88 during 1993–2017, with relatively high (Period H) and low (Period L) sea level anomalies. These anomalies correlate with the patterns of the East Asian winter monsoon at interannual timescales. The atmospheric pressure difference between the Sea of Okhotsk (SO) and ES around the Soya Strait is large during Period H. Ekman transport increases due to enhanced southeastward wind stress and results in a horizontal mass convergence that yields positive sea level anomalies during Period H. In contrast, the wind-induced transport is enhanced in the southern ES rather than in the southern SO resulting in horizontal mass divergence and negative anomalies in the spatial-mean winter sea level during Period L. Our results highlight the important roles of local wind forcing and Ekman dynamics in inducing interannual winter sea level variability in the region indicating the high predictive ability of atmospheric pressure anomalies around the Soya Strait.

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“…On decadal timescales, temperature follows a staircase-like pattern (Jones, 2012;Reid and Beaugrand, 2012;Jones et al, 2013;Belolipetsky et al, 2015), while over interdecadal timescales, it forms a complex trend (Jones and Ricketts, 2017). Step-like change has been reported for the atmosphere (Chikamoto et al, 2012;Jones, 2012;Belolipetsky, 2014;Belolipetsky et al, 2015;Bartsev et al, 2016;Bartsev et al, 2017;Saltykov et al;Varotsos et al, 2019), oceans (Beaugrand, 2004;Reid and Beaugrand, 2012;Thompson et al, 2017) and in widespread ecosystem and environmental responses coinciding with these changes (Overland et al, 2008;Conversi et al, 2010;Beaugrand et al, 2019). These changes are usually interpreted https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-61 Preprint.…”

Section: Previous Research and Measuring Nonlinear Changementioning

confidence: 99%

The Pacific Ocean heat engine

Jones

Ricketts

2021

Preprint

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Abstract. Historical warming forms a sequence of steady-state regimes punctuated by abrupt shifts. These changes are regulated by a heat engine spanning the tropical Pacific Ocean teleconnected to a broader climate network. The eastern-central Pacific maintains steady-state conditions, delivering heat to the Western Pacific warm pool. They form a heat pump with heat moving from the cold to the warm reservoir, sustained by kinetic energy. The two reservoirs exchange heat on a range of timescales, with oscillatory behaviour that intensifies under forcing. The heat engine is part of a network of oscillations and circulation interacting on a range of timescales. The process is self-regulating: steady-state regimes persist until they become unstable due to an over- or under-supply of heat for dissipation, shifting warmer or cooler to a new stable state. Pre-industrial climate was in free mode, characterised by a loosely-coupled ocean-atmosphere with limited circulation, moving into forced mode in the latter 20th century, characterised by tighter coupling and stronger circulation through the tropical Pacific with more active teleconnections globally. Continued forcing produces a stepladder-like pattern of warming. Most shifts coincide with phase changes in decadal oscillations, switching from slower to faster modes of dissipation. El Niño events combine with regime shifts to propagate heat from the oceans to land and from the tropics to higher latitudes. The most recent shift commenced in the warm pool in December 2012, ending the so-called hiatus (1997–2013), global mean surface temperatures warming abruptly by ~0.25 °C in 2014–15.

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Regime shift of the South China Sea SST in the late 1990s

Abstract: regime shift coincides with the switching of pacific decadal oscillation from a warm to cold phase in the late 1990s.

Cited by 20 publications

References 47 publications

Diversity of Marine Heatwaves in the South China Sea Regulated by ENSO Phase

Diversity of Marine Heatwaves in the South China Sea Regulated by ENSO Phase

Interannual Variability of Winter Sea Levels Induced by Local Wind Stress in the Northeast Asian Marginal Seas: 1993–2017

The Pacific Ocean heat engine

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