Regime Shifts in the Fish Meal/Soybean Meal Price Ratio

Asche, Frank; Øglend, Atle; Tveterås, Sigbjørn

doi:10.1111/j.1477-9552.2012.00357.x

Cited by 63 publications

(41 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…Traditionally, fishmeal was a part of the larger market for vegetable meals that is dominated by soybean meal (26), and the price of fishmeal relative to soybean meal was constant in the long run. With increased demand for fishmeal from growth in aquaculture, this relationship changes during ENSO periods (27,28). Another intriguing large-scale possibility is the use of market-based counterfactuals to analyze the effects of ocean acidification on capture fishery and aquaculture production of calcifying organisms.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seafood prices reveal impacts of a major ecological disturbance

Smith

Øglend

Kirkpatrick

et al. 2017

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Coastal hypoxia (dissolved oxygen ≤ 2 mg/L) is a growing problem worldwide that threatens marine ecosystem services, but little is known about economic effects on fisheries. Here, we provide evidence that hypoxia causes economic impacts on a major fishery. Ecological studies of hypoxia and marine fauna suggest multiple mechanisms through which hypoxia can skew a population's size distribution toward smaller individuals. These mechanisms produce sharp predictions about changes in seafood markets. Hypoxia is hypothesized to decrease the quantity of large shrimp relative to small shrimp and increase the price of large shrimp relative to small shrimp. We test these hypotheses using time series of size-based prices. Naive quantitybased models using treatment/control comparisons in hypoxic and nonhypoxic areas produce null results, but we find strong evidence of the hypothesized effects in the relative prices: Hypoxia increases the relative price of large shrimp compared with small shrimp. The effects of fuel prices provide supporting evidence. Empirical models of fishing effort and bioeconomic simulations explain why quantifying effects of hypoxia on fisheries using quantity data has been inconclusive. Specifically, spatial-dynamic feedbacks across the natural system (the fish stock) and human system (the mobile fishing fleet) confound "treated" and "control" areas. Consequently, analyses of price data, which rely on a market counterfactual, are able to reveal effects of the ecological disturbance that are obscured in quantity data. Our results are an important step toward quantifying the economic value of reduced upstream nutrient loading in the Mississippi Basin and are broadly applicable to other coupled human-natural systems.hypoxia | fisheries | coupled human-natural systems | bioeconomics | spatial dynamics F ertilizer use in coastal watersheds and agriculture intensification contribute to a growing incidence of coastal ecological disturbances (1-4). Of particular concern is coastal hypoxia [dissolved oxygen (DO) ≤ 2 mg/L] and potential impacts on marine fauna (1-4). The Western Hemisphere's largest area of seasonal hypoxia is in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM; >20,000 km 2 ) and overlaps with what was once the highest value fishery in the United States (brown shrimp) (www.st.nmfs.noaa.gov/commercial-fisheries/index) (5-7). Because controlling nutrient runoff upstream is costly, identifying and quantifying economic benefits downstream, including benefits to commercial fisheries, are essential for policy analysis (www.st. nmfs.noaa.gov/commercial-fisheries/index) (8-10). Although studies demonstrate ecological effects of hypoxia, economic consequences have not been established in this fishery.GoM brown shrimp (Farfantepenaeus aztecus) provide a unique opportunity to study the economic effects of hypoxia. First, the fishery is concentrated in regions of the GoM that become hypoxic seasonally (7) (SI Appendix, Figs. S1 and S2). Second, the temporal dynamics of brown shrimp and hypoxia match. Within season, harvest and hy...

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seafood prices reveal impacts of a major ecological disturbance

Smith

Øglend

Kirkpatrick

et al. 2017

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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“…However, the supply of fish destined for FMFO production remained relatively constant (Alder and Pauly, 2006) and has more recently declined to a lower proportion of global landings (Cashion et al, 2017). Prices for FMFO products have generally remained relatively elastic to growing demand due to the availability of substitutes such as soybean meal (Asche and Tveterås, 2004;Asche et al, 2013). However, prices have increased in the past few decades (Asche et al, 2013), alluding to changes in feed composition, demand and supply, and the structure of product ownership and future rights.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Prices for FMFO products have generally remained relatively elastic to growing demand due to the availability of substitutes such as soybean meal (Asche and Tveterås, 2004;Asche et al, 2013). However, prices have increased in the past few decades (Asche et al, 2013), alluding to changes in feed composition, demand and supply, and the structure of product ownership and future rights. Understanding price trends in response to market factors will facilitate in managing global fish stocks and the demand for FMFO.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…(Asche and Bjorndal, 1999;Asche and Tveterås, 2004). Soymeal, a close substitute for fishmeal in terms of crude protein, formerly prevented large changes in price for fishmeal despite the increase in demand (Asche and Tveterås, 2004;Asche et al, 2013). However, this price dynamic between fishmeal and soymeal has broken down in recent years (Asche et al, 2013) as fishmeal is substitutable only to a point in aquaculture diets.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Ex-vessel Fish Price Database: Disaggregating Prices for Low-Priced Species from Reduction Fisheries

et al. 2017

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Ex-vessel fish prices are essential for comprehensive fisheries management and socioeconomic analyses for fisheries science. In this paper, we reconstructed a global ex-vessel price database with the following areas of improvement: (1) compiling reported prices explicitly listed as "for reduction to fishmeal and fish oil" to estimate prices separately for catches destined for fishmeal and fish oil production, and other non-direct human consumption purposes; (2) including 95% confidence limit estimates for each price estimation; and (3) increasing the number of input data and the number of price estimates to match the reconstructed Sea Around Us catch database. Our primary focus was to address this first area of improvement as ex-vessel prices for catches destined for non-direct human consumption purposes were substantially overestimated, notably in countries with large reduction fisheries. For example in Peru, 2010 landed values were estimated as 3.8 billion real 2010 USD when using separate prices for reduction fisheries, compared with 5.8 billion using previous methods with only one price for all endproducts. This update of the price database has significant global and country-specific impacts on fisheries price and landed value trends over time.

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“…Again, producers have economic incentives to mitigate externalities from disease and escapes but not necessarily strong enough incentives to address the problem in a way that is socially optimal. Links between aquaculture feed and overfishing of wild forage fish present another possible global externality, but these links have never been established empirically [12,34,35]. Shrimp farming has received even more negative publicity than salmon farming in relation to detrimental environmental effects, such as destruction of mangroves, salination of agricultural areas, eutrophication, and disruptive socio-economic impacts.…”

Section: Environmental Issuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trade intervention: Not a silver bullet to address environmental externalities in global aquaculture

Asche

Roheim

2016

Marine Policy

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Aquaculture has been the world's fastest growing food production technology in recent decades, and continued growth in aquaculture production is predicted. While creating economic opportunity, aquaculture is also a new way of using eco-systems, and there is substantial evidence that aquaculture creates negative environmental externalities. Although the most effective way to address these externalities may be improved governance, this approach is often difficult because most aquaculture production takes place in developing countries with limited management capacity. The fact that a large part of aquaculture production is traded motivates substantial interest in the use of trade measures to reduce environmental impacts. However, the wide variety of species, production practices, and governance systems present in aquaculture makes it unlikely that general trade measures will achieve environmental objectives. Rather, there is a real risk that trade measures will reduce economic opportunity, raise new equity concerns, and impinge on public health with little or no environmental impact.

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Regime Shifts in the Fish Meal/Soybean Meal Price Ratio

Cited by 63 publications

References 42 publications

Seafood prices reveal impacts of a major ecological disturbance

Seafood prices reveal impacts of a major ecological disturbance

Ex-vessel Fish Price Database: Disaggregating Prices for Low-Priced Species from Reduction Fisheries

Trade intervention: Not a silver bullet to address environmental externalities in global aquaculture

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