Regional analysis of trend and non‐stationarity of hydro‐climatic time series in the Southern Alborz Region, Iran

Mirdashtvan, Mahsa; Najafinejad, Ali; Malekian, Arash; Sadoddin, Amir

doi:10.1002/joc.6313

Cited by 10 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 66 publications

(89 reference statements)

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“…The relative and standalone tests were also used for this purpose. Autocorrelation analysis was applied in precipitation time series to remove any autocorrelation before trend analysis [43][44][45][46], as autocorrelation affects the trend results. Autocorrelation values were calculated with a 95% confidence interval for precipitation data.…”

Section: Dataset and Preprocessingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Precipitation Trends and Associated Large-Scale Teleconnections in Northern Pakistan

Rebi

Hussain

et al. 2023

Atmosphere

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The effects of climate change are unparalleled in magnitude, ranging from changing weather patterns that endanger food production to increasing sea levels that increase the likelihood of catastrophic flooding. Therefore, determining the extent of such variations on regional and local scales is imperative. We used monthly precipitation data from 25 meteorological stations in northern Pakistan (NP) to document the observed changes in seasonal and annual precipitation. The station density in the NP is small and unevenly distributed; therefore, ERA-5 reanalysis data were used to supplement the observed dataset to assess the spatial trends in NP. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall (MK), Sen’s Slope estimator (SSE), and Sequential Mann–Kendall (SQMK) tests were performed to assess the trends. In addition, the wavelet analysis technique was used to determine the association of precipitation with various oceanic indices from 1960 to 2016. Results indicate that maximum precipitation was shown in the annual and summer seasons. In NP, annual, winter, spring, and summer precipitation declined, while an increase in autumn was observed at a rate of 0.43 mm/decade between 1989 and 2016. The spatial trends for observed and ERA-5 reanalysis datasets were almost similar in winter, spring, and autumn; however, some disagreement was observed in both datasets in the summer and annual precipitation trends in NP during 1960–2016. Between 1989 and 2016, summer and annual precipitation increased significantly in Region III. However, seasonal and annual precipitation decreased in NP between 1960 and 2016. Moreover, there were no prominent trends in annual precipitation until the mid-1980s, but an apparent increase from 1985 onwards. Annual precipitation increased in all elevations except at the 500–1000 m zone. The ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) shared notable interannual coherences among all indices above 16–64 months. Inter-decadal coherence with the ENSO, AO (Arctic Oscillation), and PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) in NP for 128 months and above. Generally, AO, AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), and NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) exhibited less coherence with precipitation in NP. The regression of seasonal and annual precipitation revealed that winter and spring precipitation levels had higher linear regression with the AO and ENSO, respectively, while both the AO and ENSO also dominated at the annual scale. Similarly, the IOD and PDO indices had a higher influence in summer precipitation. The findings may help water resource managers and climate researchers develop a contingency plan for better water resource management policies in the face of changing climate change in Pakistan, particularly in NP.

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Section: Dataset and Preprocessingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Precipitation Trends and Associated Large-Scale Teleconnections in Northern Pakistan

Rebi

Hussain

et al. 2023

Atmosphere

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“…The results revealed that the reference evapotranspiration time series in Iran contained unit root and were not stationary. Similarly, Mirdashtvan et al (2020) applied KPSS test on various hydro-climatic variables such as precipitation, mean air temperature and pan evaporation in Iran.…”

Section: Stationarity Testmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of temporal variability and stationarity of potential evapotranspiration in Peninsular Malaysia

Hue

Huang

et al. 2021

Water Supply

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Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) functions as an indicator to estimate the amount of water loss to atmosphere. Over the years, global climate change eventually led to the change of PET capacity and this had affected the agricultural sector and water resource management. The objective of this study was to determine the best PET estimation method as well as to carry out the trend analysis and stationarity test of PET in Peninsular Malaysia. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen's Slope estimator were applied for the trend analysis while the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test and Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin (KPSS) test were applied for the stationarity test. The findings showed that Pulau Langkawi and Kuantan stations exhibited increasing trend while Bayan Lepas station exhibited decreasing trend for the daily, monthly, and annual PET time series. The daily, monthly, and annual PET time series at Bayan Lepas, Ipoh, Subang and Muadzam Shah stations were found to be stationary. Overall, the PET trend was found to be higher at the coastal regions and stationary at the mountainous region.

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“…Given these facts, it is necessary to understand the impact of climate change on the hydrology, as well as evaluate trends and their magnitude in the temporal series. Many researchers have used classic trend detection models, such as the Mann-Kendall test; for correlating the magnitude of trends using the Rho Spearman test; and the Pettitt test, widely used for the analysis of abrupt changes in a hydroclimatic series (Tamagnone et al, 2019;Ferreira et al, 2020;Mirdashtvan et al, 2020;Salehi et al, 2020). These studies report urbanization, population growth, and the rise of agricultural land as the main factor behind the changes in the statistical patterns of the hydro climatological series.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trend in hydrological series and land use changes in a tropical basin at Northeast Brazil

Silva

Ferraz

Sousa

et al. 2022

Rev. Bras. Ciênc. Ambient.

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Flow is one of the hydrological variables of greatest interest due to its connection with water availability and its multiple uses. However, in recent years this resource has been threatened by intense land use and climate change, affecting patterns previously considered to be stationary. The goal of this study was to evaluate trends in changes of patterns of flow, precipitation, and land use in a basin located in the Brazilian Cerrado. 33 years of rainfall, fluviometric, and land use data were used, covering the period of 1985 to 2018 on an annual scale. Mann-Kendall and Sen Slope’s nonparametric test was applied to evaluate the trends in temporal series, as well as the Spearman Rho and Pettit, which were used to analyze the correlations between variables and detect the point of change in the series, respectively. The results show statistically significant trends in flow reduction over time. At the same time, a considerable reduction in natural areas occurred, with an increase of +750% in agricultural areas. The results also show that although a tendency to reduce precipitation was detected, its magnitude was not significant, with land use changes being the main factor for the negative changes in the flow of the Rio Grande tributary.

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Regional analysis of trend and non‐stationarity of hydro‐climatic time series in the Southern Alborz Region, Iran

Cited by 10 publications

References 66 publications

Spatiotemporal Precipitation Trends and Associated Large-Scale Teleconnections in Northern Pakistan

Spatiotemporal Precipitation Trends and Associated Large-Scale Teleconnections in Northern Pakistan

Evaluation of temporal variability and stationarity of potential evapotranspiration in Peninsular Malaysia

Trend in hydrological series and land use changes in a tropical basin at Northeast Brazil

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