Regional and Modal Variability in Effects of Gasoline Prices on U.S. Transit Ridership

Abstract

Previous research has shown a relationship between gasoline price and public transportation use. Although the magnitude, direction, and volatility of this relationship vary by mode, location, and system size, there can be no doubt that recent fuel price growth and fluctuation have affected most U.S. transit systems. The research presented here explores the relationship between transit ridership and fuel price, among other operational and external factors. This investigation found that after seasonal effects were removed from the ridership data series for 254 transit systems, the effect of gasoline price on bus patronage varies regionally, with the North Central and Midwest sections of the nation displaying trends that oppose conventional wisdom and differ from the rest of the country. Plausible reasons underlying these trends, including the regional effect of alternative fuels such as E85, are hypothesized and elaborated on by using federal data on ethanol availability and consumption.

Effectively Managing Consumer Fuel Price Driven Transit Demand

“…16 Haire and Machemehl studied five major U.S. cities; Atlanta, Dallas, Los Angeles, San Francisco and Washington, D.C. and found that as fuel prices increase by 1%, transit demand on average increases 0.24%. 17 This represented a larger increase than other studies have found and is likely related to the higher service levels in these cities.…”

“…45 Haire and Machemehl that the found effect of gas prices on bus ridership varies regionally and as gas prices increase in the north central and Midwest U.S., ridership there falls. 46 The lack of regional consistency in the research suggests geographic considerations in the gas price and transit demand relationship are either not relevant or well understood.…”

The Driverless Public Bus Transport Ridership In Malaysia: An Explorative Study

“…Several studies have been developed to determine the success factors that contribute to increasing increase in transit ridership. For example, Haire and Machemehl (2010) has pointed out the impacts of fuel prices on ridership. The introduction of new technology such as autonomous driving technology will play an essential role in increasing ridership for public transport system without decreasing the fare revenue.…”