Regional changes of precipitation and temperature over Bangladesh using bias‐corrected multi‐model ensemble projections considering high‐emission pathways

Fahad, Golam Rabbani; Islam, A. K. M. Saiful; Nazari, Rouzbeh; Hasan, Mohammad Alfi; Islam, G. M. Tarekul; Bala, Sujit Kumar

doi:10.1002/joc.5284

Cited by 90 publications

(42 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…Overall, the dominant feature detected was that the widespread precipitation will be increased in the 21st century over Bangladesh, especially under the RCP8.5 scenario. This result agreed with the previous study by Fahad et al [60]. The increasing trend of precipitation may generally imply a decrease in drought occurrence.…”

Section: Changes In Precipitationsupporting

confidence: 93%

Future Changes in Precipitation and Drought Characteristics over Bangladesh under CMIP5 Climatological Projections

Kamruzzaman

Jang

Cho

et al. 2019

Water

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The impacts of climate change on precipitation and drought characteristics over Bangladesh were examined by using the daily precipitation outputs from 29 bias-corrected general circulation models (GCMs) under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. A precipitation-based drought estimator, namely, the Effective Drought Index (EDI), was applied to quantify the characteristics of drought events in terms of the severity and duration. The changes in drought characteristics were assessed for the beginning (2010-2039), middle , and end of this century relative to the 1976-2005 baseline. The GCMs were limited in regard to forecasting the occurrence of future extreme droughts. Overall, the findings showed that the annual precipitation will increase in the 21st century over Bangladesh; the increasing rate was comparatively higher under the RCP8.5 scenario. The highest increase in rainfall is expected to happen over the drought-prone northern region. The general trends of drought frequency, duration, and intensity are likely to decrease in the 21st century over Bangladesh under both RCP scenarios, except for the maximum drought intensity during the beginning of the century, which is projected to increase over the country. The extreme and medium-term drought events did not show any significant changes in the future under both scenarios except for the medium-term droughts, which decreased by 55% compared to the base period during the 2070s under RCP8.5. However, extreme drought days will likely increase in most of the cropping seasons for the different future periods under both scenarios. The spatial distribution of changes in drought characteristics indicates that the drought-vulnerable areas are expected to shift from the northwestern region to the central and the southern region in the future under both scenarios due to the effects of climate change.

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Section: Changes In Precipitationsupporting

confidence: 93%

Future Changes in Precipitation and Drought Characteristics over Bangladesh under CMIP5 Climatological Projections

Kamruzzaman

Jang

Cho

et al. 2019

Water

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“…The KNMI Climate Explorer (http://climexp.knmi.nl/ start.cgi?id=someone@somewhere), a research tool to investigate the climate, was used to generate the projection. To compare the results with finer resolution RCMs, 11 CORDEX-South Asia RCMs (Appendix B) were used and, temperature and precipitation variables were derived (also see Fahad et al, 2017).…”

Section: Methodology and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and variability impacts on the forests of Bangladesh – a diagnostic discussion based on CMIP5 GCMs and ENSO

Chowdhury

Ndiaye

2017

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The aim of this study is to assess the evolution of forests in Bangladesh from the perspective of changing climate, with particular emphasis on the Sundarbans, the world's largest mangrove forest. Projections for temperature and rainfall change have been made using the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR5) general circulation models (GCMs) protocol (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, CMIP5) with 38 various GCMs and up to 105 model runs. The GCMs findings were verified by the published results of 11 regional climate models (RCMs) in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)-South Asia models with finer spatial resolution. A CMIP5 model-based synthesis review on the future variability of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has also been made, as both the seasonal temperature and rainfall variability in Bangladesh are correlated to ENSO. Both global and regional climate change scenarios indicate that temperature would continue to rise and total annual rainfall is likely to increase in the future. However, weak increases in rainfall combined with high increases in temperature would create a high demand and competition for water because of the higher evapotranspiration environment. In addition to changing climate, the interannual variability of ENSO would further aggravate problems because it displays important correlations with the variability of rainfall, temperatures, sea-level, lightning, and forest fires in Bangladesh. This study strongly recommends that future climate change projections should be combined with interannual variability ENSO to improve climate perspectives for stronger forest capacity building efforts in Bangladesh.

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“…Moreover, the vulnerability to drought varies by region. Some studies have projected that, in the near future, precipitation would increase in most of the areas of Bangladesh but decrease in the southwestern region [7]. Spatiotemporal characteristics of historical droughts can provide relevant data for predicting future droughts [8].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Agricultural Drought in Bangladesh Using Effective Drought Index

Kamruzzaman

Hwang

Cho³

et al. 2019

Water

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This study aims to assess the spatiotemporal characteristics of agricultural droughts in Bangladesh during 1981–2015 using the Effective Drought Index (EDI). Monthly precipitation data for 36 years (1980–2015) obtained from 27 metrological stations, were used in this study. The EDI performance was evaluated for four sub-regions over the country through comparisons with historical drought records identified by regional analysis. Analysis at a regional level showed that EDI could reasonably detect the drought years/events during the study period. The study also presented that the overall drought severity had increased during the past 35 years. The characteristics (severity and duration) of drought were also analyzed in terms of the spatiotemporal evolution of the frequency of drought events. It was found that the western and central regions of the country are comparatively more vulnerable to drought. Moreover, the southwestern region is more prone to extreme drought, whereas the central region is more prone to severe droughts. Besides, the central region was more prone to extra-long-term droughts, while the coastal areas in the southwestern as well as in the central and north-western regions were more prone to long-term droughts. The frequency of droughts in all categories significantly increased during the last quinquennial period (2011 to 2015). The seasonal analysis showed that the north-western areas were prone to extreme droughts during the Kharif (wet) and Rabi (dry) seasons. The central and northern regions were affected by recurring severe droughts in all cropping seasons. Further, the most significant increasing trend of the drought-affected area was observed within the central region, especially during the pre-monsoon (March–May) season. The results of this study can aid policymakers in the development of drought mitigation strategies in the future.

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Regional changes of precipitation and temperature over Bangladesh using bias‐corrected multi‐model ensemble projections considering high‐emission pathways

Cited by 90 publications

References 53 publications

Future Changes in Precipitation and Drought Characteristics over Bangladesh under CMIP5 Climatological Projections

Future Changes in Precipitation and Drought Characteristics over Bangladesh under CMIP5 Climatological Projections

Climate change and variability impacts on the forests of Bangladesh – a diagnostic discussion based on CMIP5 GCMs and ENSO

Evaluating the Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Agricultural Drought in Bangladesh Using Effective Drought Index

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