Regional Climate Models for Hydrological Impact Studies at the Catchment Scale: A Review of Recent Modeling Strategies

Teutschbein, Claudia; Seibert, Jan

doi:10.1111/j.1749-8198.2010.00357.x

Cited by 325 publications

(235 citation statements)

References 80 publications

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“…As such, these cold regions are potentially more sensitive to future changes in climate. This is consistent with local (Lyon et al 2010) to regionalscale simulations (Teutschbein and Seibert 2010). In addition, GCMs tend to diverge in these regions in their ability to project similar changes in future climates.…”

Section: Discussion and Concluding Remarkssupporting

confidence: 81%

Future Nutrient Load Scenarios for the Baltic Sea Due to Climate and Lifestyle Changes

Hägg

Lyon

Wällstedt

et al. 2013

AMBIO

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Dynamic model simulations of the future climate and projections of future lifestyles within the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin (BSDB) were considered in this study to estimate potential trends in future nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea. Total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads were estimated using a simple proxy based only on human population (to account for nutrient sources) and stream discharges (to account for nutrient transport). This population-discharge proxy provided a good estimate for nutrient loads across the seven sub-basins of the BSDB considered. All climate scenarios considered here produced increased nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea over the next 100 years. There was variation between the climate scenarios such that sub-basin and regional differences were seen in future nutrient runoff depending on the climate model and scenario considered. Regardless, the results of this study indicate that changes in lifestyle brought about through shifts in consumption and population potentially overshadow the climate effects on future nutrient runoff for the entire BSDB. Regionally, however, lifestyle changes appear relatively more important in the southern regions of the BSDB while climatic changes appear more important in the northern regions with regards to future increases in nutrient loads. From a whole-ecosystem management perspective of the BSDB, this implies that implementation of improved and targeted management practices can still bring about improved conditions in the Baltic Sea in the face of a warmer and wetter future climate.

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Section: Discussion and Concluding Remarkssupporting

confidence: 81%

Future Nutrient Load Scenarios for the Baltic Sea Due to Climate and Lifestyle Changes

Hägg

Lyon

Wällstedt

et al. 2013

AMBIO

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“…2008; van Pelt et al, 2009;Driessen et al, 2010). Authors have used perturbed meteorological data from different GCM/RCM combinations under different SRES scenarios.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In their review of recent modeling strategies, Teutschbein and Seibert (2010) emphasized how hydrological modeling has focused on future climate uncertainty. They showed that multi-GCM/RCM approaches are more useful for climate change impact assessments than a single RCM.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrological response to climate change in the Lesse and the Vesdre catchments: contribution of a physically based model (Wallonia, Belgium)

Bauwens

Sohier

Degré³

2011

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The Meuse is an important rain-fed river in NorthWestern Europe. Nine million people live in its catchment, split over five countries. Projected changes in precipitation and temperature characteristics due to climate change would have a significant impact on the Meuse River and its tributaries. In this study, we focused on the impacts of climate change on the hydrology of two sub-catchments of the Meuse in Belgium, the Lesse and the Vesdre, placing the emphasis on the water-soil-plant continuum in order to highlight the effects of climate change on plant growth, and water uptake on the hydrology of two sub-catchments. These effects were studied using two climate scenarios and a physically based distributed model, which reflects the water-soil-plant continuum. Our results show that the vegetation will evapotranspirate between 10 and 17 % less at the end of the century because of water scarcity in summer, even if the root development is better under climate change conditions. In the low scenario, the mean minimal 7 days discharge value could decrease between 19 and 24 % for a two year return period, and between 20 and 35 % for a fifty year return period. It will lead to rare but severe drought in rivers, with potentially huge consequences on water quality.

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“…However, there remain a number of challenges in producing precipitation projections that are optimal for climate impact studies of flooding (Teutschbein and Seibert, 2010;Beven, 2011). RCMs have a relatively higher resolution than GCMs (∼25 km compared to >200 km) while retaining the physical process representation of the climate.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling climate impact on floods with ensemble climate projections

Cloke

Wetterhall

et al. 2012

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

109

104

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The evidence provided by modelled assessments of future climate impact on flooding is fundamental to water resources and flood risk decision making. Impact models usually rely on climate projections from global and regional climate models (GCM/RCMs). However, challenges in representing precipitation events at catchment-scale resolution mean that decisions must be made on how to appropriately pre-process the meteorological variables from GCM/RCMs. Here the impacts on projected high flows of differing ensemble approaches and application of Model Output Statistics to RCM precipitation are evaluated while assessing climate change impact on flood hazard in the Upper Severn catchment in the UK. Various ensemble projections are used together with the HBV hydrological model with direct forcing and also compared to a response surface technique. We consider an ensemble of single-model RCM projections from the current UK Climate Projections (UKCP09); multi-model ensemble RCM projections from the European Union's FP6 'ENSEMBLES' project; and a joint probability distribution of precipitation and temperature from a GCM-based perturbed physics ensemble.The ensemble distribution of results show that flood hazard in the Upper Severn is likely to increase compared to present conditions, but the study highlights the differences between the results from different ensemble methods and the strong assumptions made in using Model Output Statistics to produce the estimates of future river discharge. The results underline the challenges in using the current generation of RCMs for local climate impact studies on flooding.

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Regional Climate Models for Hydrological Impact Studies at the Catchment Scale: A Review of Recent Modeling Strategies

Cited by 325 publications

References 80 publications

Future Nutrient Load Scenarios for the Baltic Sea Due to Climate and Lifestyle Changes

Future Nutrient Load Scenarios for the Baltic Sea Due to Climate and Lifestyle Changes

Hydrological response to climate change in the Lesse and the Vesdre catchments: contribution of a physically based model (Wallonia, Belgium)

Modelling climate impact on floods with ensemble climate projections

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