Regional Diffusion of Divorce in Turkey

Abstract

While demographic change has been well documented for many Western countries, much less is known about demographic transitions in other countries, including Turkey. Demographic change in European societies can be characterized by, amongst others, increased prevalence of divorce. Although it is often argued that life courses in Turkey follow a more traditional path, little is known on determinants and patterns of divorce, despite the major socioeconomic changes Turkey has undergone over the past decades. We study the levels of divorce of women in Turkey from 1973 to 2008 to explain patterns of divorce, looking at the role of individual characteristics and the regional context. We use the Demographic Health Surveys (2003/2008), complemented with regional data on divorce, urbanization, and GDP per capita. Applying a multilevel approach, distinguishing 12 regions, we hypothesize that regions where divorce is already more prevalent, more urbanized regions, and wealthier regions in terms of GDP per capita will increase the probability of divorce. Our analyses show that levels of divorce increased over the past decades but huge regional variation remains. Sociocultural and socioeconomic factors explain this trend, and in particular urbanization and GDP per capita are key determinants for divorce.

Impact of unemployment by sex and marriage rate on fertility decline: Estimates for Turkey and Greece using CCR model

“…Anyhow, it is known that Turkey has undergone major socioeconomic changes over the past decades and as a result the family life transitions have been impacted as well. These changes have been caused by modernization processes, influence of the Western values, and socioeconomic changes (Caarls and de Valk 2018). Here it may be mentioned clearly the role of modernization theory, where the process of modernization contributes to reducing fertility by increasing the costs of rearing children.…”

“…In other words, women in marriage are expected to adapt their reproductive behavior according to their available resources and to prefer partners who could offer them an access to more resources (Hubert 2010). Besides, in the opinion of Caarls and de Valk (2018), the enormous regional variation has also made Turkey a peculiar case: there are substantial differences between regions both in terms of economic development and in the spread of more modern values toward family life. Considering TFR, for example, in some regions, these rates approximate those of European countries, while in other regions TFR has remained high.…”

“…Considering TFR, for example, in some regions, these rates approximate those of European countries, while in other regions TFR has remained high. Since the divorce growth in Turkey is recent, as stated by Caarls and de Valk (2018), it could be considered a new family demographic phenomenon in the Turkish context. According to the Eurostat data ( 2021), the crude divorce rate in Turkey has been slightly increasing since 2004, i.e., its value has been over 1.3 per 1,000 persons in comparison with previous years when its value was below 1 per 1,000 persons.…”

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“…Kasus ini terjadi di kota Karawang [31]. Selain itu pengalaman hidup pada pasangan di Turki mengakibatkan banyak rumah tangga yang memutuskan untuk bercerai [32]. Hal ini terjadi karena salah satu pasangan yang didominasi oleh istri pernah mengenyam pendidikan yang tinggi dan memiliki pengalaman hidup di luar kota.…”

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“…In these countries, the average age at becoming a parent and the shares of out-of-wedlock childbirths have increased, while the childlessness rates have been relatively high (Balbo et al, 2013). Yet over the same period, large demographic changes have been occurring in Turkey as well (Greulich et al, 2016), including sharp decreases in fertility and slight increases in divorce (Caarls & de Valk, 2017). In Turkey in recent decades, ongoing processes of urbanization and internal migration, rising levels of education, and the implementation of related policies have led to changes in the cost-benefit balance of having children and to the spread of "modern" ideas about the family.…”