Regional Dynamics Under Adverse Physical and Behavioral Shocks: The Economic Consequences of a Chlorine Terrorist Attack in the Los Angeles Financial District

Giesecke, James; Burns, William J.; Rose, Adam; Barrett, Tony; Griffith, Marnie

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-07305-7_16

Cited by 7 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…In countries where flood insurance is available (unlike Canada at present), impacts on its takeup are also of interest. Quantitative modeling of these aspects is challenging, but has been performed previously for terrorist attacks and flooding in CGE work (Giesecke et al., , ; Husby, ; Rose et al., ). (3)Business interruption: We have provided illustrative calculations, but do not integrate BI into our model. As Hallegatte () has pointed out, adequate modeling of business interruption requires a CGE model with substantial sectoral detail.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Giesecke et al. () present a framework for thinking about behavioral reactions to a disaster. These reactions may be viewed as a response to changes in the perception of risk presented by a particular hazard.…”

Section: The Vancouver Economy and Its Vulnerability To Floodingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Giesecke et al. (, ) examine behavioral reactions after a terrorist attack. They find that such an attack may heighten uncertainty about the future occurrence of an attack, and may also increase its perceived cost and dread.…”

Section: The Vancouver Economy and Its Vulnerability To Floodingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Giesecke et al. () point out that the perceived risk of natural disasters may be less than that of terrorist attack because there is less uncertainty and less dread. The case we are considering here, coastal flooding, could be regarded as even less threatening.…”

Section: The Vancouver Economy and Its Vulnerability To Floodingmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A CGE Framework for Modeling the Economics of Flooding and Recovery in a Major Urban Area

2019

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Coastal cities around the world have experienced large costs from major flooding events in recent years. Climate change is predicted to bring an increased likelihood of flooding due to sea level rise and more frequent severe storms. In order to plan future development and adaptation, cities must know the magnitude of losses associated with these events, and how they can be reduced. Often losses are calculated from insurance claims or surveying flood victims. However, this largely neglects the loss due to the disruption of economic activity. We use a forward‐looking dynamic computable general equilibrium model to study how a local economy responds to a flood, focusing on the subsequent recovery/reconstruction. Initial damage is modeled as a shock to the capital stock and recovery requires rebuilding that stock. We apply the model to Vancouver, British Columbia by considering a flood scenario causing total capital damage of $14.6 billion spread across five municipalities. GDP loss relative to a no‐flood scenario is relatively long‐lasting. It is 2.0% ($2.2 billion) in the first year after the flood, 1.7% ($1.9 billion) in the second year, and 1.2% ($1.4 billion) in the fifth year.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Vancouver Economy and Its Vulnerability To Floodingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Vancouver Economy and Its Vulnerability To Floodingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Vancouver Economy and Its Vulnerability To Floodingmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A CGE Framework for Modeling the Economics of Flooding and Recovery in a Major Urban Area

2019

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“…I include manmade disasters such as nuclear accidents (Pascucci-Cahen 2014;Silva et al 2014;Bier et al 2014) and terrorism (e.g., Rose et al 2009;Giesecke et al 2012;Dormady et al 2014), in addition to natural disasters such as earthquakes (Schulz 2015) and hurricanes (Richardson et al 2008;Goldman and Coussens 2007), and prospective future disasters due to climate change (e.g., coastal flooding; Busby 2007; Melillo et al 2014;Udvardy and Winkelman 2014;Kim et al 2014;Kim et al 2015).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding and Mitigating the Impacts of Massive Relocations Due to Disasters

Bier

2017

EconDisCliCha

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We have grown used to thinking of displaced persons as a developing-world problem. However, Hurricane Katrina and the Japanese tsunami/nuclear disaster made clear that even in the developed world people may need to leave their homes due to natural or manmade disasters. This can occur for reasons ranging from nuclear accidents, to natural disasters (e.g., hurricanes), to terrorism (e.g., a major anthrax attack), to climate change (e.g., coastal flooding). In addition to the social consequences of forced relocation, massive relocation can have significant economic costs, including not only property damage, but also business interruption, loss of housing services, and decline of property values. Economic consequences can be expected to be highly nonlinear in both magnitude and duration of relocation. With regard to duration, a brief evacuation may be minimally disruptive, if people are able to return to their homes within a few days. A relocation of a few months or a year would be much more disruptive per day, but eventually, costs per day would diminish or approach zero. By contrast, costs can be expected to increase monotonically but non-linearly in the number of people needing to be relocated. Costs may also vary greatly depending on the nature of the assets that are interdicted. Unfortunately, disasters in populated areas can easily result in the need to relocate a million people or more. This argues for the need for research on interventions to encourage relocation before a disaster in areas under significant threat, and to increase resilience after massive relocations.

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Factorial CGE‐Based Analysis for the Indirect Benefits of the Three Gorges Project

Han

Huang

Liu

et al. 2023

Water Resources Research

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Climate change has resulted in an increasing number of natural catastrophes during the last few decades, such as heatwaves (Z. Li et al., 2018), hurricanes (Weinkle et al., 2018), drought (Trenberth et al., 2014), and especially floods (Mallakpour & Villarini, 2015). Floods have been recognized as the most prevalent natural catastrophe, posing a hazard to the majority of locations worldwide. Floods accounted for 40% of all weather-related disasters, affecting over 1.65 billion people over the previous two decades, while the number of floods around the world has climbed from 1,389 to 3,254 (UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, 2020). Thus, although the construction of large-scale hydraulic projects (LHPs) not only is time-consuming but also requires numerous human and material resources, many LHPs have been built in both developed and developing countries to improve river basin flood-resilience and promote flood-risk management. Under such circumstances, it becomes critical to investigate the comprehensive effects of LHPs during and after floods, as well as to develop cost-effective postflood adaptation and mitigation strategies.It is preferable to have a solid understanding of how to estimate the flooding losses in order to be aware of LHPs' economic flood-retention impacts. Many recent studies have focused on the direct social and economic impacts of natural catastrophes (e.g., the loss of life and tangible possessions; Okuyama, 2014). Direct economic losses resulting from natural hazards were typically assessed by government authorities or insurance companies based on first-hand data surveys and interviews (Ansell & Valle, 2021), or disaster models. However, the direct losses during a flood event only account for a small portion of total losses, whereas indirect losses may impose a much longer and larger impact (Cunado & Ferreira, 2014;Okuyama & Santos, 2014). Some approaches have been developed to analyze such indirect losses. Zeng et al. (2019) distinguished the main approaches for estimating the indirect flood losses of a natural disaster, such as postdisaster economic surveying (Molinari et al., 2014), econometric modeling (Cavallo et al., 2013, input-output (IO) models (Miller & Blair, 2009), and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models (Rose & Liao, 2005). Since the first two methods inevitably require primary data sources and can hardly capture the complex interrelationships in the socioeconomic system, academics preferred the IO and CGE models for investigating indirect flood losses (Koks & Thissen, 2016). However, the IO approach

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Regional Dynamics Under Adverse Physical and Behavioral Shocks: The Economic Consequences of a Chlorine Terrorist Attack in the Los Angeles Financial District

Cited by 7 publications

References 20 publications

A CGE Framework for Modeling the Economics of Flooding and Recovery in a Major Urban Area

A CGE Framework for Modeling the Economics of Flooding and Recovery in a Major Urban Area

Understanding and Mitigating the Impacts of Massive Relocations Due to Disasters

Factorial CGE‐Based Analysis for the Indirect Benefits of the Three Gorges Project

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