Regional energy futures as decision support in the transition to net zero emissions: North of Tyne case study

Copeland, Claire; MacKerron, Gordon; Foxon, Timothy J.

doi:10.1080/13549839.2022.2075841

Cited by 5 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…The window of opportunity identified within the CESI research programme was to apply a bridging strategy between qualitative energy futures developed focusing on the North of Tyne region [45] and the quantitative energy model for investment planning for the national electricity system [46]. The bridging method selected was to the (Bayesian) SHELF approach to gather information at an expert elicitation workshop hosted by the authors, and to use this information to estimate quantities of interest and the degree of uncertainty about them, for use in the investment planning model.…”

Section: Overviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The qualitative research used for the bridging exercise was a set of narrative future energy scenarios focusing on the North of Tyne region that were developed within the CESI research programme in 2019 [45]. The narrative energy scenarios were developed in collaboration with energy governance and civil society stakeholders in the North of Tyne through a hosted workshop.…”

Section: Qualitative Energy Futuresmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Table 2 provides a summary of the features in each of these scenarios. See [45] for a more detailed discussion of this process.…”

Section: Qualitative Energy Futuresmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Table 2 provides a summary of the features in each of these scenarios. See [45] for a more detailed discussion of this process. For the purposes of this project, the expert elicitation focused on trialling the bridging strategy with the "Just and Sustainable" scenario.…”

Section: Qualitative Energy Futuresmentioning

confidence: 99%

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In Search of Complementarity: Insights from an Exercise in Quantifying Qualitative Energy Futures

et al. 2022

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In this study, we considered a bridging strategy between qualitative and quantitative research with the aim of achieving complementarity. A pilot case study using the Sheffield Elicitation Framework “SHELF” to estimate appropriate inputs for a quantitative energy systems model (based on a qualitative energy future scenario) was used to gain insights. Of novelty are the ethnographic insights of an example translation procedure as well as the methodological approach of the translation procedure itself. This paper reports the findings from this exercise concerning the practicalities of applying such a technique and the observations from the expert elicitation process itself. Based on this pilot, we make two recommendations. The first is the importance of devising a strategy in projects, and research programmes, where bridging between qualitative and quantitative research activities would be most effective. The second is that observations of discussions during the expert elicitation process provide value in the provenance of the estimates for quantitative modelling purposes and provide considerations for further development of qualitative future scenarios.

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Section: Overviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Qualitative Energy Futuresmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Table 2 provides a summary of the features in each of these scenarios. See [45] for a more detailed discussion of this process.…”

Section: Qualitative Energy Futuresmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Qualitative Energy Futuresmentioning

confidence: 99%

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In Search of Complementarity: Insights from an Exercise in Quantifying Qualitative Energy Futures

et al. 2022

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“…However, the widespread use of fossil fuels has resulted in significant environmental pollution and destruction. Burning coal, for example, produces carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions, which are a primary contributor to greenhouse gases (GHG) according to (Copeland et al, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scenario Planning for Renewable Energy Development towards Net Zero Emission in Indonesia’s New Capital City “Nusantara”

Rino

2023

EJBMR

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It is well-known that the power sector is a major contributor to the world’s greenhouse gas emissions, and it is also vulnerable to the effects of climate change. As a result, the global power sector must speed up its decarbonization efforts. This article focuses on Renewable Energy scenario planning in Ibu Kota Nusantara. The paper examines a net-zero emissions scenario, as well as reference and renewable policy scenarios, to determine what additional measures are needed beyond the current trajectory to reach net-zero emissions. Ibu Kota Nusantara must use its underused renewable energy resources to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. Based on the above considerations, the conclusion that can be drawn is that a scenario combining renewable energy (diesel, bioenergy) with carbon capture and storage technology (CCUS) is the most promising option for carbon neutrality. This combination allows for significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions while still leveraging existing fossil fuel resources. However, continuing research and development in CCUS technology is vital to overcome the existing cost and implementation challenges. In planning toward carbon neutrality, collaboration between government, industry, and society is essential to transition to a sustainable and environmentally friendly energy system successfully.

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Participatory energy futures as decision support on subnational scales

Copeland

2023

Env Pol Gov

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This paper argues the case for participatory exploratory energy futures development to assist net zero emissions decision making on subnational scales (local and regional authorities, communities, and neighbourhoods). There are many challenges for net zero decision making on subnational scales in the United Kingdom including a lack of statutory responsibility and societal consent for the local transformation required, and no allocation of emissions reduction to meet the national net zero emissions legislated target in aggregate. Participatory exploratory energy futures can contribute to addressing these challenges and support local decision making. This is by exploring diverse possible futures and understanding the capacity for local climate change mitigation. Participatory exploratory energy futures can act too as a seeding strategy for wider debates on a preferred local future. A framework for participatory exploratory energy futures using the 2 × 2 matrix method is proposed. It is envisaged that these exercises would be complementary to other activities on subnational scales such as climate assemblies or ‘mini‐publics’. Local electoral cycles and a lack of statutory responsibility can lead to there being a focus on implementing mini‐public recommendations that are feasible in the near term. The participatory exploratory futures developed explore possibilities for the local energy system and how it may evolve in a holistic manner not just in the near term but the longer term. When local policy and decision making is recognised as aligning with the desired rather than undesired future, this can motivate all in the herculean efforts to avoid dangerous levels of climate change.

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Regional energy futures as decision support in the transition to net zero emissions: North of Tyne case study

Cited by 5 publications

References 27 publications

In Search of Complementarity: Insights from an Exercise in Quantifying Qualitative Energy Futures

In Search of Complementarity: Insights from an Exercise in Quantifying Qualitative Energy Futures

Scenario Planning for Renewable Energy Development towards Net Zero Emission in Indonesia’s New Capital City “Nusantara”

Participatory energy futures as decision support on subnational scales

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