Regional impact of large-scale climate oscillations on ice out variability in New Brunswick and Maine

Abstract

The available ice out (the date of disappearance of ice from a water body) records were analyzed from four relatively closely spaced lakes in southwestern New Brunswick (Harvey, Oromocto, Skiff) and eastern Maine (West Grand Lake), with the longest set of available observations being for Oromocto Lake starting in 1876. Results of a coherence analysis carried out on the ice out data from the four lakes indicates that there is regional coherence and correspondingly, that regional drivers influence ice out. These results also indicate that ice out dates for lakes from the region where records have not been kept can also be interpolated from these results. As the ice out record was coherent, further analysis was done for only Oromocto Lake on the basis of it having the longest ice out record. Cross-wavelet analysis was carried out between the ice out record and a variety of cyclic climate teleconnections and the sunspot record to identify which phenomena best explain the observed ice out trends. The most important observed contributors to ice out were the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with observed periodicities at the interannual scale. At the decadal scale the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the 11-year solar cycle were the only patterns observed to significantly contribute to ice out.

End‐Member Mixing Analysis as a Tool for the Detection of Major Storms in Lake Sediment Records

“…In a recent cross‐wavelet time series analysis of annual spring ice‐out dates in this region (spanning 1876–2020, including Harvey Lake), against teleconnections known to influence climate in the region, it was found that there was also a major shift in ice‐out patterns starting in ∼1895 as the LIA waned and the modern warm era began (Patterson Swindles, 2015; Walsh & Patterson, 2022a). This late nineteenth century shift correlates strongly with the initiation of increased storminess in the Harvey Lake record and throughout the WNAB.…”

“…It also correlates with the increased influence of marine air masses in the Harvey Lake core record. Walsh and Patterson (2022a) determined that amongst several instrumental climate teleconnections assessed, shifts in the influence of the SSC and PDO were particularly influential in the development of ice‐out conditions that have prevailed since the onset of the modern warm era. In an analysis of post‐1890 instrumental records, Walsh and Patterson (2022b) determined that the dominant climatic driver of extreme weather throughout eastern North America was the SSC, which exhibited a long‐standing, stationary relationship with all extreme instrumental precipitation records studied.…”

“…These cycles of increase and subsequent decline in relative Ti, Ca/Sr, Fe, and K/Rb values are discernible throughout the core record (Figure 5). Precipitation and temperature in this region are controlled by the complex interaction of multiple teleconnections (Patterson & Swindles, 2015;Walsh & Patterson 2022a, 2022b including; the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO; Ruiz- Barradas et al, 2013;Alexander et al, 2014), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO; Mantua & Hare, 2002), North Atlantic Oscillation/ Arctic Oscillation (NAO/AO; Olsen et al, 2012;Li et al, 2017), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO; Hu & Feng, 2012), Schwabe Solar Cycle (SSC; Hathaway, 2015), and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (Gray et al, 2018). For example, the AMO is characterized by a multidecadal variability of sea surface temperatures in North Atlantic Ocean surface waters.…”

Does the 11-year solar cycle affect lake and river ice phenology?

“…Impacts on surface weather have also turned out to be quite weak, if detectable at all [ 28 , 39 , 40 ]. It is therefore not immediately clear whether the solar cycle should have any discernible influence on ice phenology, though several previous studies have reported a possible link, at least for certain specific locations [ 17 , 26 , 41 ]. If such a link were real (and if it were reasonably strong at some locations), it would provide an interesting opportunity for forecasting ice phenology years in advance.…”