Regional impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity: evidence on large-scale and family farming in Brazil

Abstract

This paper projects and analyzes the regional impacts of climate change on the agricultural productivity of family farming and large-scale agriculture in Brazil between 2021 and 2050, using the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The methodology adopted consists of a cross-sectional estimation of a production function in which agricultural productivity is determined by climatic, geographic, and productive factors. The study contributes to the literature by disaggregating agricultural production into family farming and large-scale agriculture, indicating the magnitude and direction of impacts by crops and regions in Brazil, a country with a great territorial dimension and relevant and heterogeneous agricultural production. The results indicate that the agricultural productivity of family farming is more sensitive and therefore this type of producer could be more vulnerable to the phenomenon. On average, the effects will be negative in the North/Northeast regions and for cassava, maize, beans, and soybeans, with possible impacts on deforestation and on food supply. Productivity gains are expected in the southern region and for the cultivation of sugar cane and soybeans. Deterioration of food security of the vulnerable farmers and regional disparities may increase in Brazil.

Análise dos impactos das mudanças no regime pluviométrico sobre o mercado de lavoura permanente nas Mesorregiões Paraenses

“…Apesar da expansão da produção das lavouras permanentes verificada nas mesorregiões do estado do Pará é importante atentar para os efeitos adversos das mudanças climáticas sobre o mercado das tais lavouras. Pois, alterações no nível de chuvas e temperatura podem ocasionar implicações negativas ao crescimento da economia do Estado, trazendo resultados não desejados ao setor agrícola, principalmente, no que se refere à diminuição no nível da produtividade das lavouras (Souza et al, 2017;Tanure et al, 2023). Ademais, o risco da escassez ou excesso de chuvas afeta a renda do agricultor, dada a inelasticidade da oferta.…”